Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
It is good to be back in Marin, where I have spent the week talking with agents and lenders about their opinions on the current state of the local real estate market. "Make sure you tell them about the multiple offers" excalimed one prominent agent referring to the three offers and quick close on a recent listing. A leading Marin County mortgage broker assured me that they have never failed to to obtain a loan for a well-qualified client. The lenders are just making them jump through a few more hoops now. Agents tell me the market is active, and the REO's are selling as lenders do what is necessary to get these non-performing "assets" off their books. But they also tell me many buyers are circling, waiting to get the perfect deal, or waiting for the market to go lower. From the point of view of an agent, it is surprising that every bit of inventory is not flying off the shelf. So rarely is it that prices in Marin go down, that this seems an opportunity not to be missed. But last week, the gap in YTD unit sales between 2007 and 2008 increased again for both condo's and SFR's (both down 37%). YTD average sold prices on condo's are down about 6.8% vs this time in 2007, and average ytd sold prices for SFR's down about 1.9%. My economics professor told me that the market is always right, and I can't argue with that. But there is such a thing as waiting too long. We will not recognize the bottom of the market until we have passed it. Smart buyers and investors try to find good deals rather than market bottoms, and there are certainly many good deals out there now. Many sellers of homes on the market over 30 days have not reduced their asking prices but would be willing to negotiate on reasonable offers from qualified buyers.
Inventory is up again for both SFR's and condo's, and percentage in contract continues to advance as well. SFR's in the $1million to $1.99 million range finally made it to "balanced" this week, at slightly over 25% in contract. SFR percentages in contract all increased, with the exception of the $2million to $2.99 million range, which dropped less than 1 point. Condominium percentage in contract also up, except in the $1million to $1.99 million range, and that reduction hinged on the sale of only one unit.
Tremendous opportunity in this market. Ask your real estate professional for the city by city average sold prices back to 1965, and see for yourself!
More next week.
Until then, good luck and best wishes,
Fred
Monday, April 28, 2008
Saturday, April 19, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 04.15.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com)
The writer continues to travel on the east coast, and will return to California on Monday. Beautiful spring weather here, and large, newer homes in good areas sell for $300-500K. Some of these homes would go for up to $3,000,000 in selected areas of Marin County.
Spring sellers of Single Family Residences and Condominiums in Marin County continue to drive normal seasonal increase in inventory again this week. Listings up in all price ranges again, and percentage in contract up in nearly all categories as well. The only exception is SFR's over $3million--- still a strong buyers' market. Everything else a buyers' market and steadily moving towards balanced. Condo's continue to narrow the gap between this year's ytd unit sales and last, now down 33.8% vs. last week's -37%. Days on market 94 now vs. 79 last year, average list price $601,897 vs 2007's $639,519, and average sold price currently $587,409 compared to $630,520 a year ago. SFR's still sluggish compared to last year, with ytd unit sales down 34.9%. There was a typo on last week's report showing -39%. The figure should have been -34.3%, so this week's number reprents a slight additional slippage. Average SFR list price is currently $1,396,228 vs $1,366,502 last year and average sold $ are $1,340,273 vs. $1,335,321 in 2007 so, although unit sales are down, prices are up slightly. Days on market are 85 vs 82 at this time last year. Marin housing market still active, but very sensitive to value and price, so pricing, preparation, and presentation are critical. Evidencing this is the fact there were 53 price reductions on SFR's and 23 on condo's in the April 2-8 period.
Lots of stories in the news about well qualified buyers having trouble getting loans, and how this impedes the real estate market. It is critical for buyers to establish a relationship with a reputable, experienced lender or broker very early on in the process of buying a home. Buyers should be pre-approved, meaning that their application has been approved by an underwriter and is subject only to specific items such as appraisal, etc., per the lender's specifications. Sellers and their agents should include a careful consideration of the potential buyer's financial/loan/lender status in their evaluation of offers on their properties. This will help transactions to proceed smoothly and speedily.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com)
The writer continues to travel on the east coast, and will return to California on Monday. Beautiful spring weather here, and large, newer homes in good areas sell for $300-500K. Some of these homes would go for up to $3,000,000 in selected areas of Marin County.
Spring sellers of Single Family Residences and Condominiums in Marin County continue to drive normal seasonal increase in inventory again this week. Listings up in all price ranges again, and percentage in contract up in nearly all categories as well. The only exception is SFR's over $3million--- still a strong buyers' market. Everything else a buyers' market and steadily moving towards balanced. Condo's continue to narrow the gap between this year's ytd unit sales and last, now down 33.8% vs. last week's -37%. Days on market 94 now vs. 79 last year, average list price $601,897 vs 2007's $639,519, and average sold price currently $587,409 compared to $630,520 a year ago. SFR's still sluggish compared to last year, with ytd unit sales down 34.9%. There was a typo on last week's report showing -39%. The figure should have been -34.3%, so this week's number reprents a slight additional slippage. Average SFR list price is currently $1,396,228 vs $1,366,502 last year and average sold $ are $1,340,273 vs. $1,335,321 in 2007 so, although unit sales are down, prices are up slightly. Days on market are 85 vs 82 at this time last year. Marin housing market still active, but very sensitive to value and price, so pricing, preparation, and presentation are critical. Evidencing this is the fact there were 53 price reductions on SFR's and 23 on condo's in the April 2-8 period.
Lots of stories in the news about well qualified buyers having trouble getting loans, and how this impedes the real estate market. It is critical for buyers to establish a relationship with a reputable, experienced lender or broker very early on in the process of buying a home. Buyers should be pre-approved, meaning that their application has been approved by an underwriter and is subject only to specific items such as appraisal, etc., per the lender's specifications. Sellers and their agents should include a careful consideration of the potential buyer's financial/loan/lender status in their evaluation of offers on their properties. This will help transactions to proceed smoothly and speedily.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, April 6, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 4.1.2008
Hello Everyone,
Monthly city-by-city report out this week (see http://www.fredanlyan.com ). A number of changes. 7 towns/cities percentage in contract down, and 6 up. A number of markets going from buyers' to sellers' markets and vice versa. Most extreme examples of this are Greenbrae, going from 15.7% in contract to 0%, and Fairfax, going from 40% in contract (strong sellers') to 19% (buyers"). Before giving these numbers too much credence, take a look at the number of units involved. It is usually 2 or 3, or 4 units. Many of these are small markets. More significantly, San Rafael, the second biggest market in the county, went from an inventory of 263 SFR's and Condo's to 315, and still increased its percentage in contract from 19% to 21%, a continuation of an upward trend. Novato dropped about 3 percentage points to 21.65% in contract, absorbing about a 10% increase in active listings and still doing pretty well . Both of these markets still buyers' markets, but doing much better than earlier in the year.
Some comparisons with 2007:Units sold YTD, Condos down 53%. SFRs down 35%.
Monthly comparison: (all numbers for SFR and Condo combined)
March '07 --265 March '08
Accepted offers 265 284
Accepted offers to
new listings ratio 57.5% 71.2%
Accepted offers to
inventory ratio 24.9% 27.8%
DOM 79 93
Months Supply
of inventory 4.7 8.3
Bottom line: The Marin County real estate market enjoys a lot of protection and shows many signs of trying to break out. Accepted offers are up significantly, but days on market are still longer than last year. There are excellent opportunities for buyers, but market-wise sellers are doing well too. Your local real estate professional has a finger on the pulse of the Marin marketplace and is a great source of information.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Monthly city-by-city report out this week (see http://www.fredanlyan.com ). A number of changes. 7 towns/cities percentage in contract down, and 6 up. A number of markets going from buyers' to sellers' markets and vice versa. Most extreme examples of this are Greenbrae, going from 15.7% in contract to 0%, and Fairfax, going from 40% in contract (strong sellers') to 19% (buyers"). Before giving these numbers too much credence, take a look at the number of units involved. It is usually 2 or 3, or 4 units. Many of these are small markets. More significantly, San Rafael, the second biggest market in the county, went from an inventory of 263 SFR's and Condo's to 315, and still increased its percentage in contract from 19% to 21%, a continuation of an upward trend. Novato dropped about 3 percentage points to 21.65% in contract, absorbing about a 10% increase in active listings and still doing pretty well . Both of these markets still buyers' markets, but doing much better than earlier in the year.
Some comparisons with 2007:Units sold YTD, Condos down 53%. SFRs down 35%.
Monthly comparison: (all numbers for SFR and Condo combined)
March '07 --265 March '08
Accepted offers 265 284
Accepted offers to
new listings ratio 57.5% 71.2%
Accepted offers to
inventory ratio 24.9% 27.8%
DOM 79 93
Months Supply
of inventory 4.7 8.3
Bottom line: The Marin County real estate market enjoys a lot of protection and shows many signs of trying to break out. Accepted offers are up significantly, but days on market are still longer than last year. There are excellent opportunities for buyers, but market-wise sellers are doing well too. Your local real estate professional has a finger on the pulse of the Marin marketplace and is a great source of information.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, March 30, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.25.2008
Hello Everyone,
Spreadsheets for the week are available at http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monthly city-by-city report out next week.
Percentage in contract continues to advance in all market segments. SFR's in the $0-$999K price range just a tweak away from balanced, with their present level slightly above 24%. Condominiums YTD unit sales continuing to close the gap, picking up several points from last week, now at -37% compared to last year. SFR's YTD unit sales at -33% compared to '07 dropped a couple of points for the week, but with the other market signs positive, this still looks like an anomaly, especially in view of the number of listings coming on the market recently and the Easter holiday weekend last week.
News media beginning to print stories that cast real estate in a more positive light. There was an AP article picked up by the IJ earlier this week that referenced improved home sales in February. Mary Southall's column in the March 16 IJ went under the heading "At long last, activity rising" and concluded with "Home prices are good, available homes are plentiful and "activity is picking up" means prices will soon follow." By the time the media pick up on a trend, it is usually well under way, and this is probably no exception. Much of the Marin County real estate market is very close to "balanced", with a slight advantage to buyers, but good opportunity for both buyers and sellers. As the spring home buying season progresses, I look for continued improvement and an active market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Spreadsheets for the week are available at http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monthly city-by-city report out next week.
Percentage in contract continues to advance in all market segments. SFR's in the $0-$999K price range just a tweak away from balanced, with their present level slightly above 24%. Condominiums YTD unit sales continuing to close the gap, picking up several points from last week, now at -37% compared to last year. SFR's YTD unit sales at -33% compared to '07 dropped a couple of points for the week, but with the other market signs positive, this still looks like an anomaly, especially in view of the number of listings coming on the market recently and the Easter holiday weekend last week.
News media beginning to print stories that cast real estate in a more positive light. There was an AP article picked up by the IJ earlier this week that referenced improved home sales in February. Mary Southall's column in the March 16 IJ went under the heading "At long last, activity rising" and concluded with "Home prices are good, available homes are plentiful and "activity is picking up" means prices will soon follow." By the time the media pick up on a trend, it is usually well under way, and this is probably no exception. Much of the Marin County real estate market is very close to "balanced", with a slight advantage to buyers, but good opportunity for both buyers and sellers. As the spring home buying season progresses, I look for continued improvement and an active market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Monday, March 24, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.18.2008
Hello Everyone,
Small but steady gains in inventory. Marin real estate market steady. Definitely not in the tank as some publications would have us believe. Percentage in contract in most price ranges of SFR's and Condo's continues to increase. Although all segments remain in buyers' market territory, the steady increases promise to push them into balanced or sellers' market territory before too long. Lots of buzz around town from agents discussing recent increases in market activity. Market will take a bit of a break this week due to the Easter holiday. Meanwhile, SFR's down 31% on YTD units sold from this time last year, a couple of points off from last week. I don't think it is a trend. Let's see what happens in the next couple of weeks. Condo's at -41% on YTD units sold versus last year--- about a 6 point improvement from last week. This one is and has been a trend for several weeks--smart buyers taking advantage of low prices and lack of competition. Window of opportunity for buyers with good credit continues, but won't last forever! Sellers who have been holding their homes off the market, waiting for conditions to improve may want to consider sticking their toes back in the water now or in the near future before everyone else does. Improved market represents good opportunity for sellers.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Small but steady gains in inventory. Marin real estate market steady. Definitely not in the tank as some publications would have us believe. Percentage in contract in most price ranges of SFR's and Condo's continues to increase. Although all segments remain in buyers' market territory, the steady increases promise to push them into balanced or sellers' market territory before too long. Lots of buzz around town from agents discussing recent increases in market activity. Market will take a bit of a break this week due to the Easter holiday. Meanwhile, SFR's down 31% on YTD units sold from this time last year, a couple of points off from last week. I don't think it is a trend. Let's see what happens in the next couple of weeks. Condo's at -41% on YTD units sold versus last year--- about a 6 point improvement from last week. This one is and has been a trend for several weeks--smart buyers taking advantage of low prices and lack of competition. Window of opportunity for buyers with good credit continues, but won't last forever! Sellers who have been holding their homes off the market, waiting for conditions to improve may want to consider sticking their toes back in the water now or in the near future before everyone else does. Improved market represents good opportunity for sellers.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Saturday, March 15, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.11.2008
Hello Everyone,
Late breaking news! And lots of it. Front page of yesterday's (3/14) IJ screams "Home prices tumble to $830,000". Article below belies the headline in the first paragraph, saying "but there's no cause for concern, a real estate research firm reported Thursday". Let's take a quick look at the actual statistics.First, the IJ and other publications seem to be irrationally enamored of the "median" price statistic. To me, it seems one of the less useful real estate statistics. All the median price does is identify the price that is the middle price on a list. An extreme example of this would be a list of 3 prices: $3million, $100 thousand, and $500 thousand. The median would be $500 thousand. What does this tell you? At least the average of these 3 prices would be $1,200,000!
The other thing that these publications consistently do is to compare only one month of statistics, as in February 2007 to February 2008. This is too short a time span to judge a market, however, just to stay within their framework, let's take a look at the average prices for February: In February of 2007, the average price of a Single Family Residence sold in Marin County was $1,131,136; In February of 2008, it was $1,231,313, an increase. Would the paper say that? Apparently not.
OK. Other noteworthy events this week are the run on the Wall Street investment firm of Bear Stearns. The company suffered a liquidity crisis due to a run of redemptions by clients who had lost confidence in the its ability to stand behind its obligations. Because of this run on cash, the firm was in danger of defaulting. A rescue package with a large injection of capital was designed and implemented by another Wall Street firm, JPMorgan Chase, but it was ultimately guaranteed by the US government. This highly unusual action was designed to maintain confidence in the US financial markets and to prevent further runs on capital. The stock markets dropped significantly. The subprime mortgage "meltdown" is obviously the root of a great deal of this problem, but the greater impact is from people's perception of the situation and their reaction to that. The government's action yesterday was meant to restore/instill confidence that the system still works and to calm investors who might otherwise create runs on other institutions. It appears that the Feds will continue to be a bulwark against extreme market conditions. They have done quite a bit to inject liquidity into the US economy in recent weeks and to keep the wheels of commerce turning. Why is this important? Liquidity of the banking firms is essential to creating the availability of money for consumers to purchase homes and other items.
Now, the Marin real estate market. Inventories continue to increase, but are a bit below the same time last year, so there is no "glut" of homes on the market. In fact, the biggest complaint we hear from buyers is about the limited choice available to them. Many of them feel frustrated after trudging around to open houses week after week without finding the property they are seeking. Fortunately, normal seasonal trends will soon bring more homes on the market. Yes, sales are down from the same time last year with SFR's currently at -29% on YTD units sold, and Condo's at -47%, however they have been slowly narrowing the gap. Last week the numbers were -35% and -48%, respectively. Novato and San Rafael, which have been weighing down the County averages, have experienced a significant revival of buyer interest and sales. I continue to be optimistic and hopeful about the prospects for this year's Marin County real estate market.
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Late breaking news! And lots of it. Front page of yesterday's (3/14) IJ screams "Home prices tumble to $830,000". Article below belies the headline in the first paragraph, saying "but there's no cause for concern, a real estate research firm reported Thursday". Let's take a quick look at the actual statistics.First, the IJ and other publications seem to be irrationally enamored of the "median" price statistic. To me, it seems one of the less useful real estate statistics. All the median price does is identify the price that is the middle price on a list. An extreme example of this would be a list of 3 prices: $3million, $100 thousand, and $500 thousand. The median would be $500 thousand. What does this tell you? At least the average of these 3 prices would be $1,200,000!
The other thing that these publications consistently do is to compare only one month of statistics, as in February 2007 to February 2008. This is too short a time span to judge a market, however, just to stay within their framework, let's take a look at the average prices for February: In February of 2007, the average price of a Single Family Residence sold in Marin County was $1,131,136; In February of 2008, it was $1,231,313, an increase. Would the paper say that? Apparently not.
OK. Other noteworthy events this week are the run on the Wall Street investment firm of Bear Stearns. The company suffered a liquidity crisis due to a run of redemptions by clients who had lost confidence in the its ability to stand behind its obligations. Because of this run on cash, the firm was in danger of defaulting. A rescue package with a large injection of capital was designed and implemented by another Wall Street firm, JPMorgan Chase, but it was ultimately guaranteed by the US government. This highly unusual action was designed to maintain confidence in the US financial markets and to prevent further runs on capital. The stock markets dropped significantly. The subprime mortgage "meltdown" is obviously the root of a great deal of this problem, but the greater impact is from people's perception of the situation and their reaction to that. The government's action yesterday was meant to restore/instill confidence that the system still works and to calm investors who might otherwise create runs on other institutions. It appears that the Feds will continue to be a bulwark against extreme market conditions. They have done quite a bit to inject liquidity into the US economy in recent weeks and to keep the wheels of commerce turning. Why is this important? Liquidity of the banking firms is essential to creating the availability of money for consumers to purchase homes and other items.
Now, the Marin real estate market. Inventories continue to increase, but are a bit below the same time last year, so there is no "glut" of homes on the market. In fact, the biggest complaint we hear from buyers is about the limited choice available to them. Many of them feel frustrated after trudging around to open houses week after week without finding the property they are seeking. Fortunately, normal seasonal trends will soon bring more homes on the market. Yes, sales are down from the same time last year with SFR's currently at -29% on YTD units sold, and Condo's at -47%, however they have been slowly narrowing the gap. Last week the numbers were -35% and -48%, respectively. Novato and San Rafael, which have been weighing down the County averages, have experienced a significant revival of buyer interest and sales. I continue to be optimistic and hopeful about the prospects for this year's Marin County real estate market.
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Saturday, March 8, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 03.04.2008
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report out this week (see http://www.fredanlyan.com) shows lots of changes. Generally speaking, the trend is up, even with a total of 111 new listings over the previous 7 day period. Fairfax making the strongest showing, going from "buyers" at 23.5% in contract to "strong sellers" at 40% in contract over the course of the last month. Only a small number of properties involved though, so the swing is a bit exaggerated. Still, positive news. Exceptions to the upward trend are Greenbrae, Ross, and San Anselmo. Again, the number of properties that caused this shift are relatively small, so I look for more motion towards a conforming upward trend as time goes on. Sellers in these areas should be aware of the current trend. Pricing should be competitive and carefully derived from current and recent market data. Novato and San Rafael continue to advance very respectably. These markets seem to be recovering nicely from recent sluggishness.
SFR market in general continues to outperform the Condo market. SFR market down in YTD units sold about 35% from same time last year, but Avg list price at $1,470,778 up from 07's $1,369,588 and avg. sold $1,399,410 surpassing last year's $1,324,755 by a respectable margin. DOM for YTD sold properties currently at 97 vs. last year's 95.
Condominiums YTD DOM at 91 vs 88 at the same time last year and Avg list and sold below 07's numbers. Unit sales off about 50%. Still, with 62 units currently in contract out of a total of 324 , the market is active. Modest decreases in pecentage in contract this week largely due to influx of new listings. The nice weather is enticing more buyers and sellers. Let's wait to see what unfolds in the next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
City-by-City Report out this week (see http://www.fredanlyan.com) shows lots of changes. Generally speaking, the trend is up, even with a total of 111 new listings over the previous 7 day period. Fairfax making the strongest showing, going from "buyers" at 23.5% in contract to "strong sellers" at 40% in contract over the course of the last month. Only a small number of properties involved though, so the swing is a bit exaggerated. Still, positive news. Exceptions to the upward trend are Greenbrae, Ross, and San Anselmo. Again, the number of properties that caused this shift are relatively small, so I look for more motion towards a conforming upward trend as time goes on. Sellers in these areas should be aware of the current trend. Pricing should be competitive and carefully derived from current and recent market data. Novato and San Rafael continue to advance very respectably. These markets seem to be recovering nicely from recent sluggishness.
SFR market in general continues to outperform the Condo market. SFR market down in YTD units sold about 35% from same time last year, but Avg list price at $1,470,778 up from 07's $1,369,588 and avg. sold $1,399,410 surpassing last year's $1,324,755 by a respectable margin. DOM for YTD sold properties currently at 97 vs. last year's 95.
Condominiums YTD DOM at 91 vs 88 at the same time last year and Avg list and sold below 07's numbers. Unit sales off about 50%. Still, with 62 units currently in contract out of a total of 324 , the market is active. Modest decreases in pecentage in contract this week largely due to influx of new listings. The nice weather is enticing more buyers and sellers. Let's wait to see what unfolds in the next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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