Hello Everyone,
Last week I sent you a link to a Time Magazine Article about the national real estate market. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1713483,00.html
The author stated his opinion that we are at or near the bottom of the market. Shortly after I sent out that information, I picked up the Sunday, February 17 Marin IJ. The front page of the real estate section had the usual column by Mary Southall, under the heading "Mortgage broker: Business is up." Southall quotes Marin County mortgage broker Rick Cunniffe. Here is what she said about their conversation: "The morning we spoke, Cunniffe said he had a dozen calls for pre-approval letters. These are letters for people looking to purchase, not to refinance-----" "Cunniffe says investors are getting back into the real estate market. They are quietly picking up properties at low prices and at low interest rates." She continues:" 'My opinion is, the market has hit its valley; and when you're at the bottom, there's nowhere else to go but up', Cunniffe states."
Ms. Southall's bottom line? "Allow me to once again point out that the phrase, 'The market is picking up' is usually equivalent to 'There is more competition for available housing'. In Marin County that translates further to 'Prices will start going up' ". And finally: "If you've even been thinking about buying a Marin County home, consult a real estate professional today".
Couldn't have said it any better myself!
Last week every price segment for both SFR's and Condo's increased its percentage-in-contract numbers, with the exception of the $2M to $2.99M SFR segment which went down only slightly, and only due to the activity on one home in the segment. The SFR $0-$999K and $1M to $1.99M segments made it into balanced market territory after moving up slowly but consistently for a period of several weeks. Mortgage rates did take a slight bump up last week, and I could be wrong but I sense that the market has turned. We will find out for sure soon enough!
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit my website at http://www.fredanlyan.com
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 02.12.2008
Hello Everyone,
Resist the urge to believe that the local real estate market has hit the snooze button. There is a lot of activity percolating just below the surface. The February 25th issue of Time Magazine "Right on Your Money" section features an article by Dan Kadlec with a headline that says "Ignore the Headlines! Except this one.----" The article goes on to quote Peter Lynch, the famed former manager of Fidelity's storied and mega-successful Magellan Fund on investment strategy that focuses on value and ignores what everyone else is doing. The article goes on to say that this is a great time to buy a home, citing favorable mortgage rates and other factors. The full article may be read at http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1713483,00.html
In the past week, almost all price segments of the Marin County real estate market increased their percentage of listings in contract. There is only one segment that is in "strong buyers' " territory, and that is the $3million-plus SFR segment. Everything else is in "buyers' " market territory, and most of the segments are moving up the ladder towards "balanced".
The market may not have turned completely yet, but the media have started to play a different tune and consumers can't be far behind.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Resist the urge to believe that the local real estate market has hit the snooze button. There is a lot of activity percolating just below the surface. The February 25th issue of Time Magazine "Right on Your Money" section features an article by Dan Kadlec with a headline that says "Ignore the Headlines! Except this one.----" The article goes on to quote Peter Lynch, the famed former manager of Fidelity's storied and mega-successful Magellan Fund on investment strategy that focuses on value and ignores what everyone else is doing. The article goes on to say that this is a great time to buy a home, citing favorable mortgage rates and other factors. The full article may be read at http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1713483,00.html
In the past week, almost all price segments of the Marin County real estate market increased their percentage of listings in contract. There is only one segment that is in "strong buyers' " territory, and that is the $3million-plus SFR segment. Everything else is in "buyers' " market territory, and most of the segments are moving up the ladder towards "balanced".
The market may not have turned completely yet, but the media have started to play a different tune and consumers can't be far behind.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 02.05.2008
Hello Everyone,
The monthly city-by-city report is out this week. (please see http://www.fredanlyan.com for spreadsheets) Please note that San Rafael and Novato Continue to increase their percentage in contract. This in spite of the fact that the Marin County real estate market is experiencing a surge of post-holiday listings that have diluted the statistics in many of the areas shown. Let's wait until next month before giving too much weight to the lower numbers in many of the towns and cities. This decrease will most likely prove to be illusory.
Hotsheet stats for the week show 94 new SFR and Condo listings in the County during the week. Lots of real estate activity going on. I have had several conversations with experienced listing agents who have told me that buyer activity has undergone a surge, as we have been predicting. Mortgage rates are low. Home prices have stabilized in many areas, and the smart money is taking advantage of this rare situation in Marin County. Don't believe the gloom and doom talk. This is a market of opportunity---especially for buyers. Future looking bright for smart sellers too. It will be interesting to see what the upcoming warmer weather will bring.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
The monthly city-by-city report is out this week. (please see http://www.fredanlyan.com for spreadsheets) Please note that San Rafael and Novato Continue to increase their percentage in contract. This in spite of the fact that the Marin County real estate market is experiencing a surge of post-holiday listings that have diluted the statistics in many of the areas shown. Let's wait until next month before giving too much weight to the lower numbers in many of the towns and cities. This decrease will most likely prove to be illusory.
Hotsheet stats for the week show 94 new SFR and Condo listings in the County during the week. Lots of real estate activity going on. I have had several conversations with experienced listing agents who have told me that buyer activity has undergone a surge, as we have been predicting. Mortgage rates are low. Home prices have stabilized in many areas, and the smart money is taking advantage of this rare situation in Marin County. Don't believe the gloom and doom talk. This is a market of opportunity---especially for buyers. Future looking bright for smart sellers too. It will be interesting to see what the upcoming warmer weather will bring.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 02.05.2008
Hello Everyone,
The January 26th issue of the New York Times sports a headline on the first business page that says "Housing Market Shows Signs of a Thaw". They cite the Fed's recent 3/4 of a point rate cut as "the largest single amount on record". And, as you all know, we have had another 1/2 point cut since then. The article includes a graph with the caption reading, in part, "even before the surprise three-quarter-point cut in the fed funds rate, refinancing applications had reached the highest level since March 2004". The article also references the upcoming stimulus package that is expected to boost the conforming loan rate to somewhere between $625,500 and $729,750, an action it said "should make refinancings easier, and---probably encourage sales activity, too", calling this "especially significant in high-priced California". This information is right in line with what we have been saying for some time now. There is still a window of opportunity in the Marin real estate market, and no-one knows how long it will last, but it certainly will not be forever!
The Marin market stats this week show every segment still in buyers' or strong buyers' territory, particularly the condo's, but it is important to note that every category except one (SFR's, $2M-$2.99M) had a gain in percentage in contract. The one category that slipped lost about 1.4% and that was just a matter of a couple of homes out of only about 60 in the entire category. A long way of saying "statistically insignificant due to small sample size".
The opportunity in this market is enormous. I have started to hear again about multiple offers, but for those who have faith in the economy and are willing to brave the wet winter weather, the potential benefits are great. Good luck to all.
More next week. Until then,
Best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
The January 26th issue of the New York Times sports a headline on the first business page that says "Housing Market Shows Signs of a Thaw". They cite the Fed's recent 3/4 of a point rate cut as "the largest single amount on record". And, as you all know, we have had another 1/2 point cut since then. The article includes a graph with the caption reading, in part, "even before the surprise three-quarter-point cut in the fed funds rate, refinancing applications had reached the highest level since March 2004". The article also references the upcoming stimulus package that is expected to boost the conforming loan rate to somewhere between $625,500 and $729,750, an action it said "should make refinancings easier, and---probably encourage sales activity, too", calling this "especially significant in high-priced California". This information is right in line with what we have been saying for some time now. There is still a window of opportunity in the Marin real estate market, and no-one knows how long it will last, but it certainly will not be forever!
The Marin market stats this week show every segment still in buyers' or strong buyers' territory, particularly the condo's, but it is important to note that every category except one (SFR's, $2M-$2.99M) had a gain in percentage in contract. The one category that slipped lost about 1.4% and that was just a matter of a couple of homes out of only about 60 in the entire category. A long way of saying "statistically insignificant due to small sample size".
The opportunity in this market is enormous. I have started to hear again about multiple offers, but for those who have faith in the economy and are willing to brave the wet winter weather, the potential benefits are great. Good luck to all.
More next week. Until then,
Best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, January 18, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 01.15.2008
Hello Everyone,
The market comments and analysis will be very brief this week. Due to the timing of the Holidays this year, there was really not much activity in the Marin real estate market for the first week of 2008. Not much during the 2nd week either. The Hotsheet stats tell us that there were 55 new SFR listings and 15 new condominium listings between January 9 and January 15. SFR and Condo inventory both increased slightly, to 568 and 236, respectively. Overall, all SFR and Condo price segments are either buyers' or strong buyers' markets, with the exception of the SFR $2million to $2.99million segment which, at 29.8% in contract, is well into sellers' market territory.
As I mentioned previously, there are several anticipated events in the financial markets that will have an effect on the real estate sales environment. The Fed meets on January 29 to decide about a potential rate cut. Many people are betting that they go for a 1/2 point reduction. Mortgage brokers are telling me that rates right now are excellent and that this possibility may have already been priced into current loan rates. This means if there is a smaller reduction, rates could increase.
Now is a great time to lock in a low rate and negotiate a deal on a great home.
President Bush and Congress are also discussing a tax cut of some sort as an economic stimulus, which would affect people's "psychology of wealth", and therefore their buying habits, presumably including homes.
In talking to people interested in renting property in Marin County, I hear quite a bit about them wanting to wait a year or so until the real estate market "settles down". This quest for certainty may preclude the benefits of buying in a down market. There is opportunity out there right now. Experienced, professional Marin County REALTORS know the market and they know values. Take advantage of what they know, and reap the benefits!
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
P.S. for spreadsheet access, please go to http://www.fredanlyan.com
The market comments and analysis will be very brief this week. Due to the timing of the Holidays this year, there was really not much activity in the Marin real estate market for the first week of 2008. Not much during the 2nd week either. The Hotsheet stats tell us that there were 55 new SFR listings and 15 new condominium listings between January 9 and January 15. SFR and Condo inventory both increased slightly, to 568 and 236, respectively. Overall, all SFR and Condo price segments are either buyers' or strong buyers' markets, with the exception of the SFR $2million to $2.99million segment which, at 29.8% in contract, is well into sellers' market territory.
As I mentioned previously, there are several anticipated events in the financial markets that will have an effect on the real estate sales environment. The Fed meets on January 29 to decide about a potential rate cut. Many people are betting that they go for a 1/2 point reduction. Mortgage brokers are telling me that rates right now are excellent and that this possibility may have already been priced into current loan rates. This means if there is a smaller reduction, rates could increase.
Now is a great time to lock in a low rate and negotiate a deal on a great home.
President Bush and Congress are also discussing a tax cut of some sort as an economic stimulus, which would affect people's "psychology of wealth", and therefore their buying habits, presumably including homes.
In talking to people interested in renting property in Marin County, I hear quite a bit about them wanting to wait a year or so until the real estate market "settles down". This quest for certainty may preclude the benefits of buying in a down market. There is opportunity out there right now. Experienced, professional Marin County REALTORS know the market and they know values. Take advantage of what they know, and reap the benefits!
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
P.S. for spreadsheet access, please go to http://www.fredanlyan.com
Thursday, January 10, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 01.08.2008
Hello Everyone,
Welcome to the New Year. May it be the best one yet for all of you.
The City-by-City Report for December-January is now available. See http://www.fredanlyan.com
Inventory is down again, and given that we started last week on a Wednesday (or maybe even a Thursday!), not that much new inventory has come on the market (22 SFR's and 18 Condo's). Every price point, with the exception of condo's in the $2M-$2.99M range is represented as a buyers' or strong buyers' market. My opinion is that this will change. I heard an interesting quote the other day by a real estate broker. When asked if he thought this was a good time to buy, he said "would you rather be 6 months too early, or 6 months too late?". Most of us are not good at calling market tops and bottoms. What we do know is that the fundamentals of the Marin County real estate market are good. There is a lot of money available in the area, the amount of real estate is limited, and this is a popular place to live.
Fed Chairman Bernanke stated today that the Fed would take more action this month to support the economy, so look for a 1/4 to 1/2 point rate cut at their month-end meeting. The President and Congress are talking about a tax cut. Mortgage money is available to qualified buyers. My opinion is there is a window of opportunity for buyers hers that may not last. Enough said.
Look what is happening in the City-by-City report. Corte Madera, with its normally strong demand has only 12 active listings, 5 of which are in contract-- a strong sellers' market. San Anselmo, at 35.5% in contract also a strong sellers' market. Greenbrae, Ross, and Fairfax all sellers' markets. Is this the beginning of a turnaround or just a little bounce? Let's keep an eye on it and find out.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all
Fred
Welcome to the New Year. May it be the best one yet for all of you.
The City-by-City Report for December-January is now available. See http://www.fredanlyan.com
Inventory is down again, and given that we started last week on a Wednesday (or maybe even a Thursday!), not that much new inventory has come on the market (22 SFR's and 18 Condo's). Every price point, with the exception of condo's in the $2M-$2.99M range is represented as a buyers' or strong buyers' market. My opinion is that this will change. I heard an interesting quote the other day by a real estate broker. When asked if he thought this was a good time to buy, he said "would you rather be 6 months too early, or 6 months too late?". Most of us are not good at calling market tops and bottoms. What we do know is that the fundamentals of the Marin County real estate market are good. There is a lot of money available in the area, the amount of real estate is limited, and this is a popular place to live.
Fed Chairman Bernanke stated today that the Fed would take more action this month to support the economy, so look for a 1/4 to 1/2 point rate cut at their month-end meeting. The President and Congress are talking about a tax cut. Mortgage money is available to qualified buyers. My opinion is there is a window of opportunity for buyers hers that may not last. Enough said.
Look what is happening in the City-by-City report. Corte Madera, with its normally strong demand has only 12 active listings, 5 of which are in contract-- a strong sellers' market. San Anselmo, at 35.5% in contract also a strong sellers' market. Greenbrae, Ross, and Fairfax all sellers' markets. Is this the beginning of a turnaround or just a little bounce? Let's keep an eye on it and find out.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all
Fred
Saturday, December 8, 2007
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 12.04.2007
Hello Everyone,
The Marin County real estate market continues its holiday ebb. Buyers and sellers would do well to take advantage of this period. Buyers will have less competition from other buyers, and sellers, less competition from other sellers.
The market will wake up from its holiday nap in January, and we will get an idea of what kind of year it will be. My guess is it will be pretty good.
The monthly city-by-city report, out this week, is showing all cities and towns as buyers' markets with two exceptions. Greenbrae, a perennial top performer, showing balanced with 7 out of 28 properties, or 25%, in contract, and San Anselmo taking this month's all-star crown with 34.6% (17 of 49 listings) in contract.
Single Family Residences a buyers' market with about 20% in contract in all categories except the $2 to $3million range, which is at 18%. We have not seen this in a while, and, while inventory and therefore selection are down, this is an opportunity for smart shoppers-----and likely not to last, based on historical data.
Condominiums a strong buyers' market with just over 13% in contract on an overall basis. Buyers can look at this as opportunity knocking at the proverbial door.
The key to doing well in this market is to utilize the services of an experienced, professional real estate agent with expertise specific to the location of your interest. These agents look at a lot of houses every month. It is their job to know the market and their knowledge is your power.
more next week,
until then, best wishes,
Fred
p.s. for spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
The Marin County real estate market continues its holiday ebb. Buyers and sellers would do well to take advantage of this period. Buyers will have less competition from other buyers, and sellers, less competition from other sellers.
The market will wake up from its holiday nap in January, and we will get an idea of what kind of year it will be. My guess is it will be pretty good.
The monthly city-by-city report, out this week, is showing all cities and towns as buyers' markets with two exceptions. Greenbrae, a perennial top performer, showing balanced with 7 out of 28 properties, or 25%, in contract, and San Anselmo taking this month's all-star crown with 34.6% (17 of 49 listings) in contract.
Single Family Residences a buyers' market with about 20% in contract in all categories except the $2 to $3million range, which is at 18%. We have not seen this in a while, and, while inventory and therefore selection are down, this is an opportunity for smart shoppers-----and likely not to last, based on historical data.
Condominiums a strong buyers' market with just over 13% in contract on an overall basis. Buyers can look at this as opportunity knocking at the proverbial door.
The key to doing well in this market is to utilize the services of an experienced, professional real estate agent with expertise specific to the location of your interest. These agents look at a lot of houses every month. It is their job to know the market and their knowledge is your power.
more next week,
until then, best wishes,
Fred
p.s. for spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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