Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Look at what has happened! After making continuous progress over a number of weeks the SFR and Condo markets both showed up with good news last week. As of June 10, Single Family Residences overall were at 22.9% in contract, still a buyers' market, but close to balanced. HOWEVER, SFR's from $0-$999,999 clocked in at 26.04% in contract county-wide, officially in sellers' market territory for the first time in a long time. SFR listing activity was flat, and homes above $2million are a bit soft at only 18.6% in contract. $3million-plus properties a major buyers' opportunity at only 10.6% in contract. Sellers- This is a time to be optimistic, but not a time to push the envelope on pricing. Savvy buyers still looking for value, but writing offers and buying homes.
Condo's made progress during the week as well, with the overall condo market balanced at 25.06% in contract and the under-$1million condo market at 26.08% in contract---believe it or not, in sellers' market territory. Still large pockets of condo listings that have been on the market for a while, and this makes ambitious pricing unwise. But, well-located, right-priced condo's in desirable areas are selling.
This welcome news, together with last week's City-by-City report's (included again in this week's attachments) data showing Novato officially back in sellers' market territory indicate steady progress in our local markets. Year to date units sold continue to be off substantially (-37% condo and-34% SFR) from last year, but recent sales activity is steady and improving. Lots of uncertainty in the economy and with the price of gas going up weekly and even daily, and the Dow Jones bouncing up and down like a golden retriever's green tennis ball. Folks are being careful about their money and financial commitments. Still, buyers are recognizing tremendous value in certain segments of the Marin County housing market and voting their confidence with the expenditure of their housing dollars. Many experienced local real estate agents are saying this is a great time to buy. Interest rates are low, loans are available, and home prices are reasonable and reasonably stable. Marin County housing dreams are coming true for many buyers who recognize value and act on their convictions.
more next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, June 13, 2008
Friday, June 6, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 06.03.2008
06.03.2008
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City report out this week shows a number of changes. Of the 13 cities and towns monitored, the percentage in contract increased in 5, remained the same in one, and decreased in 7. Significant changes include: Mill Valley made the jump to sellers' market territory, going from 24.5% in contract to 27% in contract; Kentfield back in sellers' market territory at 30.56% in contract vs. last month's 17.65%; San Rafael, continuing on its upward trend, coming in with another increase to 23.37%, up again from last month's 22.49%; And the big news, Novato at 26% in contract, technically making it a sellers' market for the first time in a very very long time with 120 of 460 listed properties in contract as of June 3.
During the month of May, there were 317 new SFR and 103 new Condo listings in the County, vs. 317 and 101 in May '07, or roughly the same number in each category as last year. The dramatic change is that there were 306 accepted offers on SFR's and 87 on Condo's during the month. This gives a ratio of accepted offers to new listings of 96.5% for SFR's and 84.5% for Condo's, indicating that almost all the new inventory is being absorbed by buyers. Having said that, I must add that prudent sellers must still be very careful about preparation, presentation, and especially pricing, as buyers expect value, are very discriminating and are definitely not writing any blank checks. Expired or cancelled listings for the month of May much higher than same time last year with SFR's at 130 vs. 07's 57, and Condo's at 64 vs 34 in May of '07. Days on market for SFR's at 74 vs. 64 last year and condo's at 93 vs.74 in May of '07.
SFR pricing holding up a bit better than Condo's. SFR sold average $ for May at $1,457,000 vs $1,395,000 in '07 and Condo sold average $ at $544,000 vs. $635,000 last year. Keep in mind that these numbers depend upon the specific units sold during the month so they are not directly comparable due to small sample size of a short time period. Numbers of units sold are still down as well, with SFR's at 594 YTD vs. 904 YTD last year, or -34.3%, and Condo's showing 147 YTD units sold vs 233 last year, or -36.9%.
Activity continues to be brisk in local real estate offices, many with an encouraging number of newly opened escrows. Agents generally upbeat and many feel the market has stabilized and is steady/improving.
More next week. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City report out this week shows a number of changes. Of the 13 cities and towns monitored, the percentage in contract increased in 5, remained the same in one, and decreased in 7. Significant changes include: Mill Valley made the jump to sellers' market territory, going from 24.5% in contract to 27% in contract; Kentfield back in sellers' market territory at 30.56% in contract vs. last month's 17.65%; San Rafael, continuing on its upward trend, coming in with another increase to 23.37%, up again from last month's 22.49%; And the big news, Novato at 26% in contract, technically making it a sellers' market for the first time in a very very long time with 120 of 460 listed properties in contract as of June 3.
During the month of May, there were 317 new SFR and 103 new Condo listings in the County, vs. 317 and 101 in May '07, or roughly the same number in each category as last year. The dramatic change is that there were 306 accepted offers on SFR's and 87 on Condo's during the month. This gives a ratio of accepted offers to new listings of 96.5% for SFR's and 84.5% for Condo's, indicating that almost all the new inventory is being absorbed by buyers. Having said that, I must add that prudent sellers must still be very careful about preparation, presentation, and especially pricing, as buyers expect value, are very discriminating and are definitely not writing any blank checks. Expired or cancelled listings for the month of May much higher than same time last year with SFR's at 130 vs. 07's 57, and Condo's at 64 vs 34 in May of '07. Days on market for SFR's at 74 vs. 64 last year and condo's at 93 vs.74 in May of '07.
SFR pricing holding up a bit better than Condo's. SFR sold average $ for May at $1,457,000 vs $1,395,000 in '07 and Condo sold average $ at $544,000 vs. $635,000 last year. Keep in mind that these numbers depend upon the specific units sold during the month so they are not directly comparable due to small sample size of a short time period. Numbers of units sold are still down as well, with SFR's at 594 YTD vs. 904 YTD last year, or -34.3%, and Condo's showing 147 YTD units sold vs 233 last year, or -36.9%.
Activity continues to be brisk in local real estate offices, many with an encouraging number of newly opened escrows. Agents generally upbeat and many feel the market has stabilized and is steady/improving.
More next week. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, May 30, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 05.27.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
SFR market coming in last week with a pleasant surprise---inventory down slightly to 1167 from 1171 the previous week. Percentage in contract up in all SFR price points except the high end- over $3 million which decreased based on a change of only 3 additional listings and 2 fewer properties in contract. Big news in Marin County SFR's last week was that the $0-$999K price point went into "balanced market" territory from "buyers", and the $2 million to $3 million segment made the jump from buyers' to sellers' market territory with an increase from 23.7% to 27%. Whether this represents a true market turning point or is a result of fewer than normal new listings in the "pre-holiday" period remains to be seen. Based on open escrows though, it appears the the SFR market is ticking along nicely. YTD SFR units sold at 547 vs 838 at this time last year, or down 34.7% nearly even with last week's statistic of -34.2%.
Condo inventory increased during the week, but not by much--2 units, to be exact. And units in contract increased enough to bring overall condo percentage in contract up to 23.5. The under $1million range, representing all but 18 of listed condo's fared even better, increasing to 24.48% in contract, with its chest against the tape, ready to break through into the "balanced market" range for the first time in a long time. Condo YTD sold units at 140 vs. last year's 218 at the same time. Still lower, but continuing to narrow the gap which now sits at -35.7% vs. -37% last week.
La Jolla-based Data Quick, the real estate statistics source used by many media outlets, came around this week after "draping crepe" for quite some time now. A May 20 article stated:
"Bay Area home sales edged up from a seven-month run of record lows last month, indicating that mortgage availability is improving and that an increasing number of fence sitters have decided they like today's lower prices, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 6,310 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine- county Bay Area in April. That was up 28.8 percent from 4,898 in March, and down 15.3 percent from 7,447 for April 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
The month-to-month jump was the strongest for any March/April in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. "
This reference courtesy of CB SF Bay President Larry Klapow. Full text of the article available at http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080520.aspx
Monthly city-by-city report out next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
SFR market coming in last week with a pleasant surprise---inventory down slightly to 1167 from 1171 the previous week. Percentage in contract up in all SFR price points except the high end- over $3 million which decreased based on a change of only 3 additional listings and 2 fewer properties in contract. Big news in Marin County SFR's last week was that the $0-$999K price point went into "balanced market" territory from "buyers", and the $2 million to $3 million segment made the jump from buyers' to sellers' market territory with an increase from 23.7% to 27%. Whether this represents a true market turning point or is a result of fewer than normal new listings in the "pre-holiday" period remains to be seen. Based on open escrows though, it appears the the SFR market is ticking along nicely. YTD SFR units sold at 547 vs 838 at this time last year, or down 34.7% nearly even with last week's statistic of -34.2%.
Condo inventory increased during the week, but not by much--2 units, to be exact. And units in contract increased enough to bring overall condo percentage in contract up to 23.5. The under $1million range, representing all but 18 of listed condo's fared even better, increasing to 24.48% in contract, with its chest against the tape, ready to break through into the "balanced market" range for the first time in a long time. Condo YTD sold units at 140 vs. last year's 218 at the same time. Still lower, but continuing to narrow the gap which now sits at -35.7% vs. -37% last week.
La Jolla-based Data Quick, the real estate statistics source used by many media outlets, came around this week after "draping crepe" for quite some time now. A May 20 article stated:
"Bay Area home sales edged up from a seven-month run of record lows last month, indicating that mortgage availability is improving and that an increasing number of fence sitters have decided they like today's lower prices, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 6,310 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine- county Bay Area in April. That was up 28.8 percent from 4,898 in March, and down 15.3 percent from 7,447 for April 2007, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
The month-to-month jump was the strongest for any March/April in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. "
This reference courtesy of CB SF Bay President Larry Klapow. Full text of the article available at http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080520.aspx
Monthly city-by-city report out next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, May 24, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 05.20.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com )
The Marin County real estate market continues to perk along, albeit at a lower level than the last two years, but within that framework it is holding its own. Several newspaper articles in the past week, from the national level on down to our own Marin IJ ran articles referencing improving conditions in real estate. Some excerpts from the IJ article (May 21):
"You are starting to see people move into the market, attracted by the low prices"--- "We are as close to a buyer's market as we are likely to be"- Corina Rollins, College of Marin Real Estate Instructor
"Marin remains 'a unique market that doesn't seem to be too concerned with the ups and downs of mainstream meat and potatoes real estate in the state of California' "--- "The issues that seem to concern Marin homeowners are not the issues that concern 97 percent of homeowners"- DataQuick analyst John Karevoll, who was also quoted as saying that Marin was the first county in the state to exceed a million-dollar median price one year ago "And Marin is going to be the first to re-cross it".
So, in the press, gloom and doom are no longer the order of the day, and since the media normally lag these trends by several months, it is probably safe to say that our recovery is underway. That being said, the local market took a breather last week from its recent steady improvement. Inventory increased slightly, and percentage in contract was mixed, with some up, some down, but only fractionally, so for all intents and purposes it was a pretty level week. Accepted offers so far this month are 189 for SFR, vs. 236 for the entire month of May last year, and Condo's 49, month to date vs. 07's 54 total for the month. My guess is we'll get there or we'll get very close. YTD units sold for both SFR (-34%) and Condo (-37%) remained even on the boards, compared to last week's figures.
Local real estate offices enjoying an influx of new open escrows, and many agents upbeat about the state of the market. Long Holiday weekend probably puts a slight damper on sales activity for the next week, but is actually a great time for serious buyers to hang in there and beat the crowds----an opportunity to sidestep some of the potential competition.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com )
The Marin County real estate market continues to perk along, albeit at a lower level than the last two years, but within that framework it is holding its own. Several newspaper articles in the past week, from the national level on down to our own Marin IJ ran articles referencing improving conditions in real estate. Some excerpts from the IJ article (May 21):
"You are starting to see people move into the market, attracted by the low prices"--- "We are as close to a buyer's market as we are likely to be"- Corina Rollins, College of Marin Real Estate Instructor
"Marin remains 'a unique market that doesn't seem to be too concerned with the ups and downs of mainstream meat and potatoes real estate in the state of California' "--- "The issues that seem to concern Marin homeowners are not the issues that concern 97 percent of homeowners"- DataQuick analyst John Karevoll, who was also quoted as saying that Marin was the first county in the state to exceed a million-dollar median price one year ago "And Marin is going to be the first to re-cross it".
So, in the press, gloom and doom are no longer the order of the day, and since the media normally lag these trends by several months, it is probably safe to say that our recovery is underway. That being said, the local market took a breather last week from its recent steady improvement. Inventory increased slightly, and percentage in contract was mixed, with some up, some down, but only fractionally, so for all intents and purposes it was a pretty level week. Accepted offers so far this month are 189 for SFR, vs. 236 for the entire month of May last year, and Condo's 49, month to date vs. 07's 54 total for the month. My guess is we'll get there or we'll get very close. YTD units sold for both SFR (-34%) and Condo (-37%) remained even on the boards, compared to last week's figures.
Local real estate offices enjoying an influx of new open escrows, and many agents upbeat about the state of the market. Long Holiday weekend probably puts a slight damper on sales activity for the next week, but is actually a great time for serious buyers to hang in there and beat the crowds----an opportunity to sidestep some of the potential competition.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, May 16, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 05.13.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Open houses well-attended. Lots of new open escrows. A number of multiple offers, some over asking price. Some properties selling quickly too. Still quite a bit of buyer/seller negotiation going on though, especially homes that have been on the market for a while.
Inventory up again this week in all categories and percentage in contract up too, in most, but not all price points. Exceptions are: SFR's from $1M to $1.99M, dropping less than half a point, SFR's over $3m, down 1.5 points; Condo's overall, down one tenth of a point, largely due to the over $1M segment with very very small segment size, and on the strength of only a 1 unit change. Condo's in the $0-$999K range actually picking up 2 tenths of a point, ending at 23.6% in contract. Seems that buyers are quietly recognizing the value of condo's at present prices in this market and buying now.
YTD unit sales continue to be off significantly from last year, but going in the right direction. SFR's narrowed the gap from -35.5% to -34.2% and Condo's showing improvement from -39% to -37% from May 6-13.
Hotsheet shows 74 new SFR listings during the week, and 66 contingent, with most of the new listings being absorbed. 32 new condo listings and 19 contingent. Days on market for SFR's =82, compared to 75 at this time last year. Condo's, 94 vs. 77 at this time in 2007.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Open houses well-attended. Lots of new open escrows. A number of multiple offers, some over asking price. Some properties selling quickly too. Still quite a bit of buyer/seller negotiation going on though, especially homes that have been on the market for a while.
Inventory up again this week in all categories and percentage in contract up too, in most, but not all price points. Exceptions are: SFR's from $1M to $1.99M, dropping less than half a point, SFR's over $3m, down 1.5 points; Condo's overall, down one tenth of a point, largely due to the over $1M segment with very very small segment size, and on the strength of only a 1 unit change. Condo's in the $0-$999K range actually picking up 2 tenths of a point, ending at 23.6% in contract. Seems that buyers are quietly recognizing the value of condo's at present prices in this market and buying now.
YTD unit sales continue to be off significantly from last year, but going in the right direction. SFR's narrowed the gap from -35.5% to -34.2% and Condo's showing improvement from -39% to -37% from May 6-13.
Hotsheet shows 74 new SFR listings during the week, and 66 contingent, with most of the new listings being absorbed. 32 new condo listings and 19 contingent. Days on market for SFR's =82, compared to 75 at this time last year. Condo's, 94 vs. 77 at this time in 2007.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Monday, May 12, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 05.06.2008
Hello Everyone,
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Monthly City-by-City Report out this week shows a number of changes. Keep in mind that many of these towns and cities represent small markets, so a few new listings or a few extra homes sold can cause swings that don't necessarily represent the direction of the market. Items of note: Greenbrae, last month a (very)strong buyers' market with 0 of 18 properties in contract now buyers' with 5 of 26 properties, or 19.2% in contract. Kentfield, moved from strong sellers' with 38% in contract (12 of 31) to buyers' at 17.65% (6 of 34), and Ross, which was a strong buyers' market at 8.33% (1 of 12) now a balanced market with 5 of 20 properties in contract, or 25%. San Rafael, continuing its improvement, moved up again from 21.5% in contract to 22.49%---still a buyers' market, but not by much. This in spite of 63 additional listings since the last report. Buyers looking at San Rafael still in a good position, but probably will not benefit from further waiting if "sitting on the fence". Novato, with 37 more listings than the last report, took a slight pause from its recent gains, but percentage in contract, currently 19.7%, lost only about 3/4 of a point. Corte Madera, a perennial favorite, enjoyed a tremendous rebound, moving from buyers' at 24% in contract to sellers' at 32.6% in contract--- this in spite of a large increase in listings (from 29 to 49).
Condominium and Single Family Residence Inventory both up again. Levels marginally higher than this time the last couple of years, but YTD unit sales improved again last week to -36%Condo and -35.5% SFR (compared to this time in 2007).
Office activity brisk, with lots of new open files, and many closing too! Much talk among agents of quick sales and multiple offers, which are back again, but still not the rule by any means. Many indicators point to an active and improving spring market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
(for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Monthly City-by-City Report out this week shows a number of changes. Keep in mind that many of these towns and cities represent small markets, so a few new listings or a few extra homes sold can cause swings that don't necessarily represent the direction of the market. Items of note: Greenbrae, last month a (very)strong buyers' market with 0 of 18 properties in contract now buyers' with 5 of 26 properties, or 19.2% in contract. Kentfield, moved from strong sellers' with 38% in contract (12 of 31) to buyers' at 17.65% (6 of 34), and Ross, which was a strong buyers' market at 8.33% (1 of 12) now a balanced market with 5 of 20 properties in contract, or 25%. San Rafael, continuing its improvement, moved up again from 21.5% in contract to 22.49%---still a buyers' market, but not by much. This in spite of 63 additional listings since the last report. Buyers looking at San Rafael still in a good position, but probably will not benefit from further waiting if "sitting on the fence". Novato, with 37 more listings than the last report, took a slight pause from its recent gains, but percentage in contract, currently 19.7%, lost only about 3/4 of a point. Corte Madera, a perennial favorite, enjoyed a tremendous rebound, moving from buyers' at 24% in contract to sellers' at 32.6% in contract--- this in spite of a large increase in listings (from 29 to 49).
Condominium and Single Family Residence Inventory both up again. Levels marginally higher than this time the last couple of years, but YTD unit sales improved again last week to -36%Condo and -35.5% SFR (compared to this time in 2007).
Office activity brisk, with lots of new open files, and many closing too! Much talk among agents of quick sales and multiple offers, which are back again, but still not the rule by any means. Many indicators point to an active and improving spring market.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, May 2, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 04.29.2008
Hello Everyone,
Percentage in contract of both SFR's and Condo's continued to increase last week, following the recent trend. Two exceptions to this were: SFR's in the $1M to $1.99M range, falling less than 1%, but enough to move from "balanced" to "buyers' " (In my opinion not enough of a move to be significant); Condo's in the $1M to $1.99M range, losing 5%, but due to the small size of that market, representing only 1 unit, again, not significant. SFR's over $3M still "strong buyers' " with 13 of 93 properties on the market in contract. A great opportunity for high-end buyers to negotiate.
There were 244 accepted offers on Single Family residences in April. This was the greatest number of accepted offers in the 23 months that my (MarketQuest) report showed, and represented 27% of inventory, and 79% of new listings. In April of last year, there were 216 accepted offers representing 24% of inventory. There were 66 accepted offers on condo's, representing 21% of inventory and 88% of new listings. Again, this number was the highest in the last 23 months, and compared to 54 accepted offers (18% of inventory) in April of 2007.
The Marin County real estate market does appear to be improving, with many market segments approaching "balanced", or even venturing into or close to "sellers' " territory. Reduced YTD unit sales (-36.6% SFR and 39%Condo vs. 2007) make this a time to be careful about pricing, preparation, presentation and thorough with marketing. But not a time to test the market with high prices. Properties that warrant more than the asking price usually attract multiple offers, while overpriced properties often sit on the market, ultimately selling for less than if they had been properly priced at the outset. Market in general is active, with attractive, well-priced properties going into contract quickly. Buyers and sellers have good opportunity here.
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Percentage in contract of both SFR's and Condo's continued to increase last week, following the recent trend. Two exceptions to this were: SFR's in the $1M to $1.99M range, falling less than 1%, but enough to move from "balanced" to "buyers' " (In my opinion not enough of a move to be significant); Condo's in the $1M to $1.99M range, losing 5%, but due to the small size of that market, representing only 1 unit, again, not significant. SFR's over $3M still "strong buyers' " with 13 of 93 properties on the market in contract. A great opportunity for high-end buyers to negotiate.
There were 244 accepted offers on Single Family residences in April. This was the greatest number of accepted offers in the 23 months that my (MarketQuest) report showed, and represented 27% of inventory, and 79% of new listings. In April of last year, there were 216 accepted offers representing 24% of inventory. There were 66 accepted offers on condo's, representing 21% of inventory and 88% of new listings. Again, this number was the highest in the last 23 months, and compared to 54 accepted offers (18% of inventory) in April of 2007.
The Marin County real estate market does appear to be improving, with many market segments approaching "balanced", or even venturing into or close to "sellers' " territory. Reduced YTD unit sales (-36.6% SFR and 39%Condo vs. 2007) make this a time to be careful about pricing, preparation, presentation and thorough with marketing. But not a time to test the market with high prices. Properties that warrant more than the asking price usually attract multiple offers, while overpriced properties often sit on the market, ultimately selling for less than if they had been properly priced at the outset. Market in general is active, with attractive, well-priced properties going into contract quickly. Buyers and sellers have good opportunity here.
(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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