Hello Everyone,
Starting into the traditionally slower holiday period, the number of active listings is headed downward, a normal trend for this time of year. Inventory figures are just about in line with the same time last year.
Percentage in contract figures for both SFR's and condo's continued their upward trend in almost every price range during the last week SFR's under $1million very close to a balanced market at 23.4% in contract, though they remain, officially, in buyers market territory. Condos in the $1million-$2million price range clocked in this week at 30% in contract, a sellers market, but the sample size is so small (20 units with 6 in contract) that 1 or two units going in or out of escrow can cause a significant swing.
Agents holding open homes reporting great traffic on new listings, slowing as time goes on. Buyers' agents saying that buyers are out there looking and making offers when they see properties they like. Sellers well advised to dress their homes for success and grab the buyers' interest right at the start. Not a time to test the market with overly aggressive pricing. Preparation, pricing, presentation still the buzzwords for this market. Several articles out this week noted a modest turnaround possible for the real estate market in 2008. Based on available facts, this writer would agree. Some agents report investors and high net worth individuals pursuing acquisition of property on the theory it won't go much lower.
Waiting for the bottom of the market often results in having to buy while prices are on the way up.
more next week
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for spreadsheets, please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Marin County Real Estate Statistics 11.06.2007. The Anlyan Report
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract up in Sausalito, Belvedere, Tiburon, Larkspur, Greenbrae, and Kentfield. Also notably up in San Rafael and Novato, two areas that have lagged in recent weeks, perhaps an early sign of improvement in these two markets--- but still plenty of room for smart buyers with an eye for value to do well. Mill Valley and Fairfax both holding steady, Mill Valley just on the south side of balanced, in buyers market territory, and Fairfax deep into buyers' market territory. Remember these are general market conditions and certain properties always defy the norm, so the advice of an experienced real estate professional is invaluable. Corte Madera surprisingly edged into buyers' market territory after a long run as a strong sellers' market. Probably temporary but bears watching. Ross and San Anselmo also down significantly.
Single Family inventory down again, to 888 overall, and down at every price point. Percent of SFR's in contract overall is up slightly, mostly due to renewed strength in the "entry level" under $1million market. The over $1million price range down moderately at every price point. Overall SFR volume down 6.6 percent from the same time last year, and days on market up slightly from 63 to 70, but average sale price still up at $1,377,194 vs. ytd 2006 of $1,248,383.
Condominiums down in volume just over 21 percent at 440 units so far for the year vs. 559 in 2006, but average sale price of $646,484 still trumps 2006's $611,435. Days on market at 76 vs. 2006's ytd of 68. Just two units sold in the past week, but enough went pending to push the percentage in contract over 15% for the first time in quite a while, taking the overall condo market to "buyers' market" from "strong buyers'". Don't know whether this is a trend or not, but I join several hundred condo owners in hoping that it is. We will keep an eye on this for further developments. Meanwhile, condo's in Marin continue to be a great opportunity for buyers.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for spreadsheets, please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract up in Sausalito, Belvedere, Tiburon, Larkspur, Greenbrae, and Kentfield. Also notably up in San Rafael and Novato, two areas that have lagged in recent weeks, perhaps an early sign of improvement in these two markets--- but still plenty of room for smart buyers with an eye for value to do well. Mill Valley and Fairfax both holding steady, Mill Valley just on the south side of balanced, in buyers market territory, and Fairfax deep into buyers' market territory. Remember these are general market conditions and certain properties always defy the norm, so the advice of an experienced real estate professional is invaluable. Corte Madera surprisingly edged into buyers' market territory after a long run as a strong sellers' market. Probably temporary but bears watching. Ross and San Anselmo also down significantly.
Single Family inventory down again, to 888 overall, and down at every price point. Percent of SFR's in contract overall is up slightly, mostly due to renewed strength in the "entry level" under $1million market. The over $1million price range down moderately at every price point. Overall SFR volume down 6.6 percent from the same time last year, and days on market up slightly from 63 to 70, but average sale price still up at $1,377,194 vs. ytd 2006 of $1,248,383.
Condominiums down in volume just over 21 percent at 440 units so far for the year vs. 559 in 2006, but average sale price of $646,484 still trumps 2006's $611,435. Days on market at 76 vs. 2006's ytd of 68. Just two units sold in the past week, but enough went pending to push the percentage in contract over 15% for the first time in quite a while, taking the overall condo market to "buyers' market" from "strong buyers'". Don't know whether this is a trend or not, but I join several hundred condo owners in hoping that it is. We will keep an eye on this for further developments. Meanwhile, condo's in Marin continue to be a great opportunity for buyers.
More next week.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for spreadsheets, please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, October 26, 2007
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 10.23.2007
Hello Everyone,
Back from the East Coast, and ready with this week's statistics and analysis.
Single Family inventory has not changed much, but percentage in contract is up moderately in all price points. The $2M-$2.99M and the $3M and up ranges moved from "strong buyers" to "buyers". Other categories all continue as "buyers" , but with higher percentage in contract, and approaching balanced market. Per Market Quest, accepted offers so far in October have exceeded new listings. Sale price/list price, 3 month average sold $, 3 month average $/sq.ft, and 3 month average sale price/list price ratio all trending up.
The loan panic seems to have quieted down a bit. Large surviving lenders like Countrywide are making some adjustments to loan terms in order to keep existing borrowers out of default. Mortgage money is available again, albeit with more oversight and stricter qualification guidelines.
There are enough price reductions, expired, and inactive listings for me to continue preaching seller caveats about preparation, pricing, and presentation. Novato and San Rafael continue to be more challenging markets than other parts of the county, and also represent huge buyer opportunities. An old friend of mine always says "better is the enemy of good". For every buyer who manages to successfully call the bottom of this market, there will be quite a few who will be wishing they had bought now. It may have already turned.
Condo's continue to lag a bit, with inventory up moderately. My guess is that this will change as SFR inventory tightens up. This is another huge window of opportunity for savvy buyers, especially those who may have formerly been priced out of the market.
For spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
more next week
until then,
Best wishes,
Fred
Back from the East Coast, and ready with this week's statistics and analysis.
Single Family inventory has not changed much, but percentage in contract is up moderately in all price points. The $2M-$2.99M and the $3M and up ranges moved from "strong buyers" to "buyers". Other categories all continue as "buyers" , but with higher percentage in contract, and approaching balanced market. Per Market Quest, accepted offers so far in October have exceeded new listings. Sale price/list price, 3 month average sold $, 3 month average $/sq.ft, and 3 month average sale price/list price ratio all trending up.
The loan panic seems to have quieted down a bit. Large surviving lenders like Countrywide are making some adjustments to loan terms in order to keep existing borrowers out of default. Mortgage money is available again, albeit with more oversight and stricter qualification guidelines.
There are enough price reductions, expired, and inactive listings for me to continue preaching seller caveats about preparation, pricing, and presentation. Novato and San Rafael continue to be more challenging markets than other parts of the county, and also represent huge buyer opportunities. An old friend of mine always says "better is the enemy of good". For every buyer who manages to successfully call the bottom of this market, there will be quite a few who will be wishing they had bought now. It may have already turned.
Condo's continue to lag a bit, with inventory up moderately. My guess is that this will change as SFR inventory tightens up. This is another huge window of opportunity for savvy buyers, especially those who may have formerly been priced out of the market.
For spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
more next week
until then,
Best wishes,
Fred
Friday, October 5, 2007
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 10.2.2007
Hello Everyone,
The monthly city-by-city report is out this week, along with the other reports. (see http://www.fredanlyan.com)
The market performance summary is as follows: Five towns and cities improved; Six experienced declines; and two were essentially unchanged. Mill Valley went into buyers' market territory for the first time in a long time, but further investigation revealed this was largely due to lagging condo sales. Removing condo's from the mix leaves Mill Valley SFR's at just about 25%, a balanced market-- --still a substantial cooling from just a few weeks ago. Sausalito experienced an increase in properties in contract, from just over 12% to a bit over 22%, leaving the market still in buyers' territory, but not by much. If Sausalito condo's are removed from the mix, the SFR market there is at about 33% in contract, a sellers' market. San Rafael extended its decline a bit, as did Novato, where a substantial supply of unsold inventory is creating major opportunities for buyers who may formerly have been priced out of the market. The message here is that the market is segmented, with buyers going after what they perceive to be the prime residential properties. Buying and selling homes in this kind of market requires the kind of professional experience that comes from constant exposure and current knowledge of local real estate conditions. Fortunately, here in Marin, this kind of assistance is readily available from the pool of experienced, professional REALTORS. At the risk of being redundant, I'll just say that pricing, preparation, and presentation are critical factors. It is not unusual for this kind of "staging" to make the critical difference in perception required to put a property into the "prime" category and have it sell quickly.
There are still quite a number of properties with price reductions, as well as a substantial number of expired, and withdrawn/temporarily off market listings. Inventory stabilized and came down just a bit last week after growing for several weeks prior. While we are entering the traditionally slower last quarter of the year, we still have an active market here in Marin. Mortgage money is available at good rates to qualified buyers, and buyers and sellers are negotiating their way to successful deals every day.
more next week----- Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
The monthly city-by-city report is out this week, along with the other reports. (see http://www.fredanlyan.com)
The market performance summary is as follows: Five towns and cities improved; Six experienced declines; and two were essentially unchanged. Mill Valley went into buyers' market territory for the first time in a long time, but further investigation revealed this was largely due to lagging condo sales. Removing condo's from the mix leaves Mill Valley SFR's at just about 25%, a balanced market-- --still a substantial cooling from just a few weeks ago. Sausalito experienced an increase in properties in contract, from just over 12% to a bit over 22%, leaving the market still in buyers' territory, but not by much. If Sausalito condo's are removed from the mix, the SFR market there is at about 33% in contract, a sellers' market. San Rafael extended its decline a bit, as did Novato, where a substantial supply of unsold inventory is creating major opportunities for buyers who may formerly have been priced out of the market. The message here is that the market is segmented, with buyers going after what they perceive to be the prime residential properties. Buying and selling homes in this kind of market requires the kind of professional experience that comes from constant exposure and current knowledge of local real estate conditions. Fortunately, here in Marin, this kind of assistance is readily available from the pool of experienced, professional REALTORS. At the risk of being redundant, I'll just say that pricing, preparation, and presentation are critical factors. It is not unusual for this kind of "staging" to make the critical difference in perception required to put a property into the "prime" category and have it sell quickly.
There are still quite a number of properties with price reductions, as well as a substantial number of expired, and withdrawn/temporarily off market listings. Inventory stabilized and came down just a bit last week after growing for several weeks prior. While we are entering the traditionally slower last quarter of the year, we still have an active market here in Marin. Mortgage money is available at good rates to qualified buyers, and buyers and sellers are negotiating their way to successful deals every day.
more next week----- Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, September 28, 2007
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 9.25.2007
Hello Everyone,
Only marginal changes in the numbers again this week.
For Single Family Residences:
New Listings 104; Price Reductions 90; Contingent 43; Pending 36; Sold 39; Expired 15; Withdrawn/Temporarily off Market 21.
Average list price for YTD sold properties $1,407,462, Average Selling Price $1,379,544, Average Days on Market (DOM) 70
For Condo's:
New Listings 31; Price Reductions 27; Contingent 13; Pending 8; Sold 3; Expired 7; Withdrawn/Temporarily off Market 14
Average list price for YTD sold properties $650,143, Average Selling Price $613,262, Average Days on Market (DOM) 76
It is interesting to note that in both cases, the number of price reductions almost equals the number of new listings. Add the Withdrawn/Temporarily Off Market, and Expired listings to the number of Price Reductions to get a sense of the importance of proper pricing.
Even though all market categories are in "buyers' market" territory, it does not mean that buyers have "carte blanche". It simply means that sellers need to get in sync with the market. This includes proper preparation, pricing, and presentation.
Experienced, professional REALTORS can help with this process. They know the market and they know what is selling. Buyers are also wise to take advantage of the knowledge and experience available from an experienced real estate professional to target specific areas or homes and zero in on equitable value according to the latest market conditions.
Mortgage rates have eased somewhat since the Fed's actions last week and the fear and psychology of scarcity are starting to abate. Well qualified buyers can still obtain financing, and at historically low rates. Working with a knowledgeable, reputable lender or mortgage broker is critical to ensure that loans will fund and fund on schedule.
Homes in Marin have always held an allure and an inherent value that insulates them a bit from the full fluctuations of the real estate market. Market values may soften, but, historically, they don't drop precipitously. To see statistics going back to the 1960's, go to http://www.greathomes.org Click on the bar graph in the center of the page that says "sales statistics" , then scroll down to "yearly statistics".
It may be a pleasant surprise to see the resilience of the Marin County real estate market and its resistance to declines. If buyers are planning to live in a home for several years they will see from these statistics that history is on their side.
More next week--
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets, please visit my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
Only marginal changes in the numbers again this week.
For Single Family Residences:
New Listings 104; Price Reductions 90; Contingent 43; Pending 36; Sold 39; Expired 15; Withdrawn/Temporarily off Market 21.
Average list price for YTD sold properties $1,407,462, Average Selling Price $1,379,544, Average Days on Market (DOM) 70
For Condo's:
New Listings 31; Price Reductions 27; Contingent 13; Pending 8; Sold 3; Expired 7; Withdrawn/Temporarily off Market 14
Average list price for YTD sold properties $650,143, Average Selling Price $613,262, Average Days on Market (DOM) 76
It is interesting to note that in both cases, the number of price reductions almost equals the number of new listings. Add the Withdrawn/Temporarily Off Market, and Expired listings to the number of Price Reductions to get a sense of the importance of proper pricing.
Even though all market categories are in "buyers' market" territory, it does not mean that buyers have "carte blanche". It simply means that sellers need to get in sync with the market. This includes proper preparation, pricing, and presentation.
Experienced, professional REALTORS can help with this process. They know the market and they know what is selling. Buyers are also wise to take advantage of the knowledge and experience available from an experienced real estate professional to target specific areas or homes and zero in on equitable value according to the latest market conditions.
Mortgage rates have eased somewhat since the Fed's actions last week and the fear and psychology of scarcity are starting to abate. Well qualified buyers can still obtain financing, and at historically low rates. Working with a knowledgeable, reputable lender or mortgage broker is critical to ensure that loans will fund and fund on schedule.
Homes in Marin have always held an allure and an inherent value that insulates them a bit from the full fluctuations of the real estate market. Market values may soften, but, historically, they don't drop precipitously. To see statistics going back to the 1960's, go to http://www.greathomes.org Click on the bar graph in the center of the page that says "sales statistics" , then scroll down to "yearly statistics".
It may be a pleasant surprise to see the resilience of the Marin County real estate market and its resistance to declines. If buyers are planning to live in a home for several years they will see from these statistics that history is on their side.
More next week--
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets, please visit my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 09.18.2007
Hello Everyone,
Incremental change only this week. Not much fodder for further analysis. My opinion is that the holiday pause is still working its way through the system and we will know more in a week or two. In the meantime, there are positive signs and significant activity in our real estate market.
Some numbers for the week:
SFR's: New listings, 66. Price reductions, 70. 26 of these were in Novato and 13 in San Rafael. The surprise was that Mill Valley came in at 3rd place, with 8 price reductions. Contingent, 35. Pending, 17. Sold, 32. Expired, 13. Withdrawn/Temp off Mkt., 20. Average list price for YTD sold SFR's $1,405,311 vs. $1,287,103 in 2006. Average sales price, $1,377,603 vs. 2006's $1,264,485, and Days on Market 70 this year vs. last year's 62 at this time, again for sold YTD properties.
Condo's: New Listings, 22. Price reductions, 15. Contingent, 10. Pending, 3. Sold, 3. expired, 5. Withdrawn/Temp off Mkt., 14. Average list price for YTD sold properties, $650,833 vs. $617,024 last year. Average sales price $640,862 vs. $612,816 in 2006. Days on Market, 76 this year. 66 in 2006.
The Fed took a big step this week and reduced the Federal Funds rate by half a percent. This was the first cut in four years. This move to restore confidence in the economy is a major step and should have a positive effect on our industry. The stock market has already signaled its approval. Let's wait and see what happens.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets, please visit my website, http://www.fredanlyan.com
Incremental change only this week. Not much fodder for further analysis. My opinion is that the holiday pause is still working its way through the system and we will know more in a week or two. In the meantime, there are positive signs and significant activity in our real estate market.
Some numbers for the week:
SFR's: New listings, 66. Price reductions, 70. 26 of these were in Novato and 13 in San Rafael. The surprise was that Mill Valley came in at 3rd place, with 8 price reductions. Contingent, 35. Pending, 17. Sold, 32. Expired, 13. Withdrawn/Temp off Mkt., 20. Average list price for YTD sold SFR's $1,405,311 vs. $1,287,103 in 2006. Average sales price, $1,377,603 vs. 2006's $1,264,485, and Days on Market 70 this year vs. last year's 62 at this time, again for sold YTD properties.
Condo's: New Listings, 22. Price reductions, 15. Contingent, 10. Pending, 3. Sold, 3. expired, 5. Withdrawn/Temp off Mkt., 14. Average list price for YTD sold properties, $650,833 vs. $617,024 last year. Average sales price $640,862 vs. $612,816 in 2006. Days on Market, 76 this year. 66 in 2006.
The Fed took a big step this week and reduced the Federal Funds rate by half a percent. This was the first cut in four years. This move to restore confidence in the economy is a major step and should have a positive effect on our industry. The stock market has already signaled its approval. Let's wait and see what happens.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets, please visit my website, http://www.fredanlyan.com
Thursday, September 6, 2007
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 09.04.2007
Hello Everyone,
Welcome back from the Labor Day holiday. I hope that everyone enjoyed the wonderful weather and the extra time off!
Every year at this time, the housing market here in Marin County takes a little time off too, as buyers, sellers, and agents concentrate on a little leisure/travel time and/or getting ready for back to school. That is why I said last week that it is unfair to try to characterize the market at this time. The normal seasonal effects are inextricably linked with whatever effect we may or may not be getting from the financial fallout of the "mortgage meltdown" we have heard so much about. The truth is, there are still solid lenders out there who are eager to lend to qualified buyers. The application/qualification criteria have been tightened, so a bit of extra documentation may be required, and the process may take a few days longer. The key is to be sure that the broker/lender are top-of-the-line and will see the process through to a successful conclusion. Your experienced professional real estate agent can offer you some great options----be sure to use this valuable resource.
Single Family Residence inventory is down again, from 886 to 879, with all price points showing as "buyers'" markets on a county-wide basis. Certain pockets of strength continue to defy this statistic as we will se in the city-by-city report. And we finally went into negative territory on the 2006-2007 units sold comparison at minus 1.9% from a year ago. Still, the average listing and sales prices slightly ahead of the same time last year, though days on market are up a bit.
Condominium inventory also down for the week, from 312 to 293. All price points either buyers' or strong buyers' markets. This market did show some strength during the period, with 13 units sold vs. only 7 in 2006. As with SFR's, condo's still listing and selling above last year's prices, though unit volume YTD is down some 14.4%.
City-By-City Report showing everywhere except Belvedere with a decline in the percentage in contract figure. Belvedere a very small sample size with just a couple of units making a substantial difference in the figures. Corte Madera the queen of the county in terms of real estate, and still a strong sellers' market at 37.5% in contract, though that figure is down from 44.8% the week prior. Mill Valley and San Anselmo also members of the defiant royal family and still sellers' markets, at 26.7 and 26.4 percent, respectively. San Rafael losing a little ground but hanging tough at 19.07 % in contract. Novato trended down again, and sits at just 11.9% in contract, a strong buyers' market, and a tremendous opportunity for buyers who may have formerly been priced out of the Marin real estate market. Will waiting longer mean a better price? Hard to say, but it is difficult to call the bottom of any market, and prices are very attractive now.
So, what does this all mean?
Marin County always has been, and will continue to be a wonderful place to live.
The weather is great, the schools are excellent, the scenery is gorgeous, and San Francisco is just a few minutes away. Existing homes do not have a lot of sales competition from new construction in most of the County because there is not much buildable land available. And, over time, Marin County real estate has always been a good investment. The next few weeks should give a good indication of which direction the fall market season is likely to take. In the meantime, people will still be attracted to Marin County for all the reasons above, and many more, and they will need places to live!!
more next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets and tables, please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Welcome back from the Labor Day holiday. I hope that everyone enjoyed the wonderful weather and the extra time off!
Every year at this time, the housing market here in Marin County takes a little time off too, as buyers, sellers, and agents concentrate on a little leisure/travel time and/or getting ready for back to school. That is why I said last week that it is unfair to try to characterize the market at this time. The normal seasonal effects are inextricably linked with whatever effect we may or may not be getting from the financial fallout of the "mortgage meltdown" we have heard so much about. The truth is, there are still solid lenders out there who are eager to lend to qualified buyers. The application/qualification criteria have been tightened, so a bit of extra documentation may be required, and the process may take a few days longer. The key is to be sure that the broker/lender are top-of-the-line and will see the process through to a successful conclusion. Your experienced professional real estate agent can offer you some great options----be sure to use this valuable resource.
Single Family Residence inventory is down again, from 886 to 879, with all price points showing as "buyers'" markets on a county-wide basis. Certain pockets of strength continue to defy this statistic as we will se in the city-by-city report. And we finally went into negative territory on the 2006-2007 units sold comparison at minus 1.9% from a year ago. Still, the average listing and sales prices slightly ahead of the same time last year, though days on market are up a bit.
Condominium inventory also down for the week, from 312 to 293. All price points either buyers' or strong buyers' markets. This market did show some strength during the period, with 13 units sold vs. only 7 in 2006. As with SFR's, condo's still listing and selling above last year's prices, though unit volume YTD is down some 14.4%.
City-By-City Report showing everywhere except Belvedere with a decline in the percentage in contract figure. Belvedere a very small sample size with just a couple of units making a substantial difference in the figures. Corte Madera the queen of the county in terms of real estate, and still a strong sellers' market at 37.5% in contract, though that figure is down from 44.8% the week prior. Mill Valley and San Anselmo also members of the defiant royal family and still sellers' markets, at 26.7 and 26.4 percent, respectively. San Rafael losing a little ground but hanging tough at 19.07 % in contract. Novato trended down again, and sits at just 11.9% in contract, a strong buyers' market, and a tremendous opportunity for buyers who may have formerly been priced out of the Marin real estate market. Will waiting longer mean a better price? Hard to say, but it is difficult to call the bottom of any market, and prices are very attractive now.
So, what does this all mean?
Marin County always has been, and will continue to be a wonderful place to live.
The weather is great, the schools are excellent, the scenery is gorgeous, and San Francisco is just a few minutes away. Existing homes do not have a lot of sales competition from new construction in most of the County because there is not much buildable land available. And, over time, Marin County real estate has always been a good investment. The next few weeks should give a good indication of which direction the fall market season is likely to take. In the meantime, people will still be attracted to Marin County for all the reasons above, and many more, and they will need places to live!!
more next week-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets and tables, please visit http://www.fredanlyan.com/
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