Hello Everyone,
And Happy Labor Day Weekend.
Finally, as summer draws to a close, we are getting some warm weather---- some of it just a little bit too warm for folks who are not used to 100+ degree days. But so far, the weekend weather has been just about perfect. Buyers are out and attending open homes that interest them and several new listings in Southern Marin were getting a lot of activity around 1pm today, just as Sunday Opens were starting up. Lots of discussion among local agents about the state of the economy and whether we are in for a real estate "double dip". Many agents and their clients getting homes ready to place on the market for the traditional post Labor Day selling season, which usually lasts until about Thanksgiving. The question in everyone's mind is "How healthy will the fall real estate market be here in Marin County?" Lots of opinions on both sides---- with statistics to back them up. Remember Mark Twain's quote about there being 3 kinds of lies: Lies; Damn Lies; and Statistics? There are a lot of the latter attached to this email. In particular, please note the much-awaited City-by-City Analysis which comes out monthly. Of 13 Marin County cities and towns covered, it shows percentage in contract up in 9, down in 3, and essentially unchanged in 1. Also, please review the Single Family (SFR) and Condo Market Action Reports from NRT/Coldwell Banker MarketQuest. MarketQuest statistics from this and other reports show some very interesting activity during the month of August. For example: Active inventory (8/31) of 1,026 SFR's and 281 Condo's compares to 1228 SFR/325 Condo last August, and 1129 SFR/364 Condo in August of 2008. August's sold listings, at 132 SFR and 32 Condo compare to 167 SFR/38 Condo last year and 160 SFR/57 Condo in 2008. But, with 287 accepted offers for SFR's and 78 for condo's, this August was by far the best of the three years, with SFR's at 179 last year and 157 in '08 and Condo's at 48 last August and 61 the year before. This brings the ratio of accepted offers to new listings in August to 105.9% for SFR's and 101.3% for Condo's. Other than last December's 117% for SFR's, these are the highest figures in the 2 year period covered by the reports!
Yes, August sales are down for both SFR's and Condo's, both on a year-over-year basis and compared to July. YTD units sold, while still ahead of last year for both SFR's and Condo's have been losing momentum for some weeks now. YTD SFR units sold at 1226 as of 8/31 compared to 1000 in August of '09, or up 22.6%, while Condo units sold were 318 on 8/31 compared to the year-ago figure of 304, just hanging on to a razor-thin 4.6% year-over-year gain. Average YTD SFR sold price at $1,044,953 compared to $980,1113 last August and average days on market (DOM) for sold properties improved slightly from 98 last August to the current level of 87 DOM. For Condo's, the YTD average sold price on 8/31 was $394,377 vs. '09's $369,296, with DOM up 6 days from 103 to 110. The under-$1million range is still the most active, with 31.78% of SFR's and 29.46% of Condo's in contract on a County-wide basis. Upper end of the market still lagging due to continuing challenges in obtaining "jumbo" financing. Still a fabulous time for high-end cash buyers to pick up properties at excellent prices.
Buyers are out there. They are well-informed and looking for value. Successful agents and sellers are paying attention to detail, dressing properties in their "Sunday best" paying close attention to the most recent comparable sales, and pricing them to sell. Most agents also being careful not to under-price listings as current market environment less likely to float prices substantially higher than listing price, even with two or three offers. Buyers' agents acutely aware of hurdles with appraisers and loans--- less likely to encourage clients to go really high even to get a preferred property.
What does it all mean--- inventory down, unit sales down, and accepted offers up substantially??
We are looking forward with anticipation to the next several weeks, which should reveal the trend for the fall real estate market---------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
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