Hello Everyone,
We seem to be getting the lazy summer real estate market without the lazy summer weather! On Wednesday, according to one account, the weather in San Francisco was the coldest for that day since records have been kept, beginning in the late 1800's. And, reportedly, we are having the coolest summer weather in over 40 years! Nonetheless, people are still going on vacation (hopefully to warmer places) and many have placed their real estate searches or plans to sell on temporary "hold" while they are away. This is normal summer behavior. Our Marin County Market usually comes back to life in September when everyone returns to work or school, and stays fairly active until the holidays.
The Marin real estate market for the first four months of the year was incredibly hot, with buyers racing to beat the April 30 deadline for the federal tax credits, and total units sold were far ahead of 2009. As of July 20, YTD housing units sold were still substantially ahead of the same date in 2009, with condo unit sales up 10.2% (270 vs. 245) and Single Family unit sales up 34.2% (1024 vs. 763), but these percentages have been steadily eroding since the tax credits ended. A July 15 article by La Jolla, CA-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, quoted their President, John Walsh, saying "The next few months should be very interesting. We're about to see how well the housing market can fly on its own. The tax credits no doubt stole some demand form the rest of this year, and soon we'll have a better sense of just how much." He went on to talk about the current lending environment and its effect on the market: "The Bay Area market is getting a boost from super-low mortgage rates and a slightly friendlier lending environment for high-end borrowers-------- But, barring new government stimulus, the housing market will be relying very heavily on improvements in the economy. A lot will depend on how many people find jobs, or stop worrying about losing the one they have."
See full text of article at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100715.aspx
Single Family Residences (SFR). Marin SFR inventory was just about unchanged at 1270 units vs. 1269 at last report. Overall percentage in contract continued to decline to 23.07%. At the beginning of May, it was 30.19%. The under-$1million market is still putting in the best performance at 31.23% in contract, a sellers' market, but still 2 points lower than last report and 8 points lower than the May 11 figure of 39.5%. Homes in the $1-$2million range up slightly from15.8% in contract on July 6 to 16.44% on July 20, but these were at 20.06% on May 11! Similarly, the $2-$3million range was at 9.73% in contract vs. 18.75% on May 11, and homes in the $3million-plus range at 8.18% on July 20 vs. 15.32% on May 11.
Average list price for SFR's for YTD homes sold as of July 20 was $1,108,584 vs. $1,043,949 last year, while average sold price of $1,058,324 compared to $988,149 at the same time in '09. Remember, in order for this to be an accurate gauge of the increase/decrease in home values, we would have to have sold the exact same mix of dwellings in both years, which is obviously not the case. Days on market for YTD sold properties dropped slightly from 98 in '09 to 87 as of July 20.
Condominium inventory up marginally, with 361 units listed for sale compared to 352 at last report. 29.92% of these were in contract, compared to the July 6 level of 32.10%. On May 11, 36.69% of listed condominium properties were in contract. Average list price of a Marin County Condo for YTD properties sold was $409,167 compared to $377,659 at the same time last year, and average sold price was $398,677 vs. 09's $363,577. Average Days on Market for sold properties were 106 as of July 20, compared to the year-ago figure of 101, a slight increase. Decreasing foreclosure activity a factor in year-over-year increases in selling prices for both SFR and Condo inventory, as less distressed property hits the market.
Pricing continues to be soft, except on the most desirable properties. This, combined with mortgage rates still holding at historic lows makes it a great opportunity for buyers. Buyers at the upper end of the market continue to have a rare opportunity to purchase property at very attractive rates. Sellers still not giving away Marin County real estate, but lower prices and bargain loan rates making homes affordable to many who formerly found themselves unable to buy a home here.
More next time.
Until then, enjoy the summer!
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
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