Hello Everyone,
As we predicted at the beginning of the month, post-Labor Day housing inventory did take a bit of a jump this week, with a 55 unit increase in Single Family Residence (SFR) listings, bringing the new total to 1284. Condo listings up only marginally with a slim 4 unit increase from 358 to 362. Percentage in contract generally down as well.
On September 15, 22.5% of SFR's were in contract in all price ranges compared to 23.7% on September 1. SFR's under $1 million slipped a bit too, from 31.78% in contract on 9/1 to 29.54% on 9/15. Still in what we have traditionally termed "sellers market" territory, though this expression has limited utility in our current, critically price-sensitive market. The $1million to $1.99 million SFR segment a pleasant surprise with an increase from 16.7% to 17.05% in contract. YTD SFR unit sales up 225 compared to the same time last year, with 1286 SFR units sold in the County as of 9/15, a 21.2% increase over the same time last year. This percentage increase has been eroding for some time now, since losing momentum from the federal homebuyer tax credits, which expired at the end of April. Average listing price or $1,096,206 and average sold price of $1,046,473 remain up from last year's $1,041.956 and $986,458. Some of this increase due to price increases, but a substantial amount due to fewer foreclosures as a percentage of total sales.
Condo inventory up only slightly, as mentioned earlier. Of all condo units listed for sale on 9/15, 28.4% were in contract, roughly unchanged from the 28.7% in contract on September 1. As of 9.15, YTD condo units sold stood at 340 compared to the year-ago figure of 322. The 18 unit difference represents a 5.6% increase that has also been shrinking over the summer. Average condo YTD list price of $416,215 and sale price of $404,527 still beat last year's YTD figures of $380,133 and $366,350.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, noted, in a September 16 article, that Bay Area-wide real estate sales in August were the lowest for any August since 1992---but added that sales, which were 10.9% below August of 2009 had "pulled out of the steep descent seen in July when the market lost most of the boost that had been provided by federal home buyer tax credits". The article noted that, by comparison, July sales were 19.1% below this June and 22.8% below July '09.
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president, when asked if this was bad news, was quoted as saying "---- it depends on your perspective. Some will find the August sales level disheartening though at least the declines weren't as steep as in July. But spectacularly low mortgage rates and today's lower prices present new opportunities for home shoppers who got discouraged in the past". Full text of article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100916.aspx
Local real estate agents this week had mixed reactions to the market, with some noting that attractive new listings were being snapped up by buyers almost immediately and others still expressing concern over the state of the economy and buyers' reluctance to commit.
Let's see what the next couple of weeks bring. That should give us some perspective on what the remainder of the year may have in store for us.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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