Hello Everyone,
DataQuick Information Systems, a San Diego-based real estate news and information service, in a February 17 article, quoted its President, John Walsh, as saying something we have been emphacizing for the last couple of reports:
"January and February are the two months of the year that are the least predictive of upcoming trends. That said, last month’s activity was a continuation of trends we saw much of last year. The market is still dominated by distress sales and bargain hunting. We’re seeing little discretionary activity”.
However, the article also includes a chart comparing 2010 and 2011 YTD housing sales volume and prices by County. That table shows January (combined SFR and condo) unit home sales in Mariin County up 13.7% from 153 in January 2010 to 174 this year even though the median sales price for the period was down 6.5% from $535,000 to $500,000. These numbers are not exactly the same as ours (from the local MLS) but show the same trend--- unit sales up (mostly attributable to condo sales) and prices down. Full text of the DataQuick article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110217.aspx
A recent check of the Bareis/ Rappatoni MLS revealed that 269 out of 823 total SFR listings in Marin (over 32%) and 138 of 274 Condo listings (about 50%) were some sort of distressed sale (foreclosure, NOD, REO, VA repo, or short sale). Much of this activity is in Novato and San Rafael, but there is a significant amount of it throughout the County. Low prices generated by these distressed sales tend to keep a lid on non-distressed inventory as well. Inventory of homes for sale is low because owners who can postpone selling in this market tend to do so, hoping to get a better price later. Immaculate, extremely well-located homes do buck this trend a bit though they are still subject to its general influence. Owners who do choose to sell now are well-advised to pay careful attention to comparable sales and to dress their home for success by staging attractively and making it easy to show. Professional photography can make an enormous difference in a home's appearance on the MLS, generating more interest and more showings. Our formula of Preparation, Presentation, and Pricing bears repeatimg again and again. An experienced, professional REALTOR, familiar with your neighborhood is your best ally when planning to sell your home in today's market environment.
Many buyers still feeling frustrated by lack of available inventory. Multiple offers often generated when several of them pounce on the same attractive listing at the same time. Some of these multiple-offer situations are going over asking price, but not anywhere near as much as in the hot markets of just a few years ago. Recent gains in the stock market have folks feeling more confident about the economy and more comfortable about making a long-term financial commitment to a mortgage, although financial fallout from the recession/depression like Borders Books declaring bankruptcy last week, continues to dog the economy.
Many local real estate agents optimistic about prospects for better sales in 2011. Open houses are well-attended. Buyers are out in force and writing offers. Escrows are being opened. Some are falling through, but many are closing. There is anticipation in the air. Stock market is up. News of interest rates heading up is starting to make some buyers wonder if it is time to jump on board the train before it leaves the station. Are they correct? We will see soon enough.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes, to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, February 21, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 02.07.11
2.6.11
Hello Everyone,
Our comment of two weeks ago bears repeating. Last winter's real estate market, our current standard of comparison, was artificially inflated by Federal Homebuyer tax credits. As buyers rushed to get in on the tax-savings action, they skewed the numbers of sales by pushing them into the 1st and 2nd quarters. All of that artificial demand put a bit of upward pressure on prices too. So when we look at YTD sales of 87 Single Family Residences on February 1 (compared to 98 last year), a drop of 11.2%, it is really not such a bad number--- especially since it has gained significant ground since our last report, when it stood at -25.5%. Condo's, on the other hand, are actually up 3 units, from 37 last year to 40 on February 1. Prices have not held up as well though, with the average YTD sold price of an SFR at $824,748 compared to the year-ago figure of $1,114,266. Condo average sale prices also down, with an average YTD sold price of $338,593 on Feb 1 compared to last year's $392,979. These numbers affected significantly by market-mix, meaning that lower-value homes have been selling and not all of the price difference is value erosion.
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 covered markets in the County up since last report, 4 down, and 1 (Ross) unchanged. Belvedere holding down the bottom of the pyramid at 3.33%, or only 1 of 30 active listings in contract. Fairfax at the apex with 43.75% and Novato close behind with 42.75%. Kentfield winning the "most improved" award, for going from 11% in contract at the end of December to 38% as of February 1!
SFR active inventory for Jan 31 lowest in over 2 years at only 583 units (CB MarketQuest*), compared to 827 in 2010 and 883 in '09. Accepted offers for January at 113% of new listings, down a bit from December's 140%, but still far above last January's 43% and '09's 24%. Months supply of inventory at 6.6, up a bit from December's 4.6, but still far better than 2010's 8.8 and 2009's 12.4. Upper-end homes doing better too, with 22.75% of homes in contract in the $1-2million dollar range, 25.5% in the $2-3 million dollar bracket, and homes over $3million up over 10% in contract.
Condo active inventory also lowest in more than 2 years at 193 units (CB MarketQuest*) compared to 266 in Jan 2010 and 287 in '09. Accepted condo offers for January at 71 more than double last year's 33 and Jan '09's 34. Months supply of condo inventory at 4.8 actually down from December's 5.9, as well as both Jan '10 and '09, which came in at 7.4 and 8.2, respectively. Condo percentage in contract overall at 35.8%, with those under $1million slightly better at 36.7%.
Lots of short sale and REO activity still going on. Multiple offers not unusual in the current market, but even with 4 or 5 offers most properties not going very far over asking price. Many agents optimistic about the year ahead and local offices busy with all the open escrows, but deals often challenging to bring to a successful conclusion. Interest rates a bit higher than the lowest lows, but still great. Read the attached January MarketQuest SFR and Condo reports for more details, and decide for yourself what kind of a year you think 2011 will turn out to be in the world of Marin County real estate. Email fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com for a copy of Dr. Steve Sjuggerud's article "The Best Time in History to Buy a House" for an interesting perspective on today's real estate values compared to the entire 20th century!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all
Fred
* CB MarketQuest statistics and MLS statistics count "active listings" differently because of the way in which each includes or excludes contingent and/or pending listings.
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Our comment of two weeks ago bears repeating. Last winter's real estate market, our current standard of comparison, was artificially inflated by Federal Homebuyer tax credits. As buyers rushed to get in on the tax-savings action, they skewed the numbers of sales by pushing them into the 1st and 2nd quarters. All of that artificial demand put a bit of upward pressure on prices too. So when we look at YTD sales of 87 Single Family Residences on February 1 (compared to 98 last year), a drop of 11.2%, it is really not such a bad number--- especially since it has gained significant ground since our last report, when it stood at -25.5%. Condo's, on the other hand, are actually up 3 units, from 37 last year to 40 on February 1. Prices have not held up as well though, with the average YTD sold price of an SFR at $824,748 compared to the year-ago figure of $1,114,266. Condo average sale prices also down, with an average YTD sold price of $338,593 on Feb 1 compared to last year's $392,979. These numbers affected significantly by market-mix, meaning that lower-value homes have been selling and not all of the price difference is value erosion.
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 covered markets in the County up since last report, 4 down, and 1 (Ross) unchanged. Belvedere holding down the bottom of the pyramid at 3.33%, or only 1 of 30 active listings in contract. Fairfax at the apex with 43.75% and Novato close behind with 42.75%. Kentfield winning the "most improved" award, for going from 11% in contract at the end of December to 38% as of February 1!
SFR active inventory for Jan 31 lowest in over 2 years at only 583 units (CB MarketQuest*), compared to 827 in 2010 and 883 in '09. Accepted offers for January at 113% of new listings, down a bit from December's 140%, but still far above last January's 43% and '09's 24%. Months supply of inventory at 6.6, up a bit from December's 4.6, but still far better than 2010's 8.8 and 2009's 12.4. Upper-end homes doing better too, with 22.75% of homes in contract in the $1-2million dollar range, 25.5% in the $2-3 million dollar bracket, and homes over $3million up over 10% in contract.
Condo active inventory also lowest in more than 2 years at 193 units (CB MarketQuest*) compared to 266 in Jan 2010 and 287 in '09. Accepted condo offers for January at 71 more than double last year's 33 and Jan '09's 34. Months supply of condo inventory at 4.8 actually down from December's 5.9, as well as both Jan '10 and '09, which came in at 7.4 and 8.2, respectively. Condo percentage in contract overall at 35.8%, with those under $1million slightly better at 36.7%.
Lots of short sale and REO activity still going on. Multiple offers not unusual in the current market, but even with 4 or 5 offers most properties not going very far over asking price. Many agents optimistic about the year ahead and local offices busy with all the open escrows, but deals often challenging to bring to a successful conclusion. Interest rates a bit higher than the lowest lows, but still great. Read the attached January MarketQuest SFR and Condo reports for more details, and decide for yourself what kind of a year you think 2011 will turn out to be in the world of Marin County real estate. Email fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com for a copy of Dr. Steve Sjuggerud's article "The Best Time in History to Buy a House" for an interesting perspective on today's real estate values compared to the entire 20th century!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all
Fred
* CB MarketQuest statistics and MLS statistics count "active listings" differently because of the way in which each includes or excludes contingent and/or pending listings.
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Saturday, January 22, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 1.22.11
Hello Everyone,
DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service, in an article dated January 20, featured the headline
Bay Area Housing Ends Year With Many Looking but Not Buying
(full text available at) http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110120.aspx
This wasn't exactly true in Marin County as there were a combined total of 195 SFR's and Condo's sold here during the month of December. While this represented about 14% fewer home sales than the comparable period in 2009, Days on Market (DOM) actually dropped a couple of days (from 118 to 116) and a number of local REALTORS closed out the year with a welcome but unexpected flurry of last minute sales. Now that the Holidays have ended and the New Year has arrived, we have begun to see more homes added to the available inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condo's. Some of these are fresh listings and some are "recycled" listings that were taken off the market at the end of 2010 and are now coming back on after a 30 day or more "rest" with the DOM counter reset to zero. As we approach the late winter and spring selling seasons, we normally expect the local housing inventory to continue to increase. This should be a welcome event for many frustrated wannabee home buyers who have been looking and looking but not finding and who are unwilling to "settle" for something that really doesn't meet their needs. While it is still too soon to tell what kind of market we will have this year, many local agents are optimistic and looking forward to at least a modest improvement in home sales for 2011.
Here's what we have seen so far:
Single Family Residence (SFR)
Overall inventory increased from 740 on January 6 to 770 on January 19 and percentage in contract increased from 27.8% to 29.8%. Homes under $1 million did even better with an increase from33.96% in contract to 36.49% while number of listed homes in that price range increased from 480 to 496. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range relatively stable at 21.38% in contract while listed units did increase by 11, to 159. Upper-end homes doing somewhat better than previously, with 9 of 44 listed units in contract as of Jan 19, or 20.45%. This compares to 17.39% at last report. Homes over $3 million also enjoying greater sales activity, with 6 of 71 homes on the market in contract (8.45% compared to 4.55% on January 6). YTD sales of SFR's as of January 19 were 38 units, compared to 51 in 2010, or down 25%, and DOM for homes sold during that period were 112, compared to the year-ago figure of 97. Average sold price at $885,616 compared to $1,233,119 in the same period a year ago. This appears to be an inauspicious start to the year but the number of sales is still very low so a "market mix" of lower-priced or less desirable homes can have an unbalancing effect on early-in-the-year statistics. In addition, we will have to remember during the first half of this year that we are comparing to 2010's skewed 1st and 2nd quarter sales resulting from the homebuyer tax credits.
Condo's
Overall inventory increased from 266 on January 6 to 271 on January 19, but the number of units in contract remained static at 94, pulling the percentage in contract down slightly from 35.34% to 34.69%. There was only one condo over $1million in contract of the 10 units on the market on January 19, or 10%, matching the level on January 6 when we last reported. YTD sales of condo's as of January 19 were 16 units, compared to 20 in 2010, or down 20%, and DOM for condo's sold during that period were 126, compared to the year-ago figure of 114. Average sold price at $321,006 compared to $334,841 in the same period a year ago. Please see remarks above under SFR's regarding these statistics which one would hope are not a harbinger of the year ahead!
Stay tuned for new developments as the year rolls out ahead of us.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service, in an article dated January 20, featured the headline
Bay Area Housing Ends Year With Many Looking but Not Buying
(full text available at) http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110120.aspx
This wasn't exactly true in Marin County as there were a combined total of 195 SFR's and Condo's sold here during the month of December. While this represented about 14% fewer home sales than the comparable period in 2009, Days on Market (DOM) actually dropped a couple of days (from 118 to 116) and a number of local REALTORS closed out the year with a welcome but unexpected flurry of last minute sales. Now that the Holidays have ended and the New Year has arrived, we have begun to see more homes added to the available inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condo's. Some of these are fresh listings and some are "recycled" listings that were taken off the market at the end of 2010 and are now coming back on after a 30 day or more "rest" with the DOM counter reset to zero. As we approach the late winter and spring selling seasons, we normally expect the local housing inventory to continue to increase. This should be a welcome event for many frustrated wannabee home buyers who have been looking and looking but not finding and who are unwilling to "settle" for something that really doesn't meet their needs. While it is still too soon to tell what kind of market we will have this year, many local agents are optimistic and looking forward to at least a modest improvement in home sales for 2011.
Here's what we have seen so far:
Single Family Residence (SFR)
Overall inventory increased from 740 on January 6 to 770 on January 19 and percentage in contract increased from 27.8% to 29.8%. Homes under $1 million did even better with an increase from33.96% in contract to 36.49% while number of listed homes in that price range increased from 480 to 496. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range relatively stable at 21.38% in contract while listed units did increase by 11, to 159. Upper-end homes doing somewhat better than previously, with 9 of 44 listed units in contract as of Jan 19, or 20.45%. This compares to 17.39% at last report. Homes over $3 million also enjoying greater sales activity, with 6 of 71 homes on the market in contract (8.45% compared to 4.55% on January 6). YTD sales of SFR's as of January 19 were 38 units, compared to 51 in 2010, or down 25%, and DOM for homes sold during that period were 112, compared to the year-ago figure of 97. Average sold price at $885,616 compared to $1,233,119 in the same period a year ago. This appears to be an inauspicious start to the year but the number of sales is still very low so a "market mix" of lower-priced or less desirable homes can have an unbalancing effect on early-in-the-year statistics. In addition, we will have to remember during the first half of this year that we are comparing to 2010's skewed 1st and 2nd quarter sales resulting from the homebuyer tax credits.
Condo's
Overall inventory increased from 266 on January 6 to 271 on January 19, but the number of units in contract remained static at 94, pulling the percentage in contract down slightly from 35.34% to 34.69%. There was only one condo over $1million in contract of the 10 units on the market on January 19, or 10%, matching the level on January 6 when we last reported. YTD sales of condo's as of January 19 were 16 units, compared to 20 in 2010, or down 20%, and DOM for condo's sold during that period were 126, compared to the year-ago figure of 114. Average sold price at $321,006 compared to $334,841 in the same period a year ago. Please see remarks above under SFR's regarding these statistics which one would hope are not a harbinger of the year ahead!
Stay tuned for new developments as the year rolls out ahead of us.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, January 9, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 01.09.11
Hello Everyone,
A December 16 article by MDA DataQuick, a San Diego-based real estate news service, quoted their president,John Walsh, who, predicting recovery, but hedging his bets on timing, said:
“The thing is, demand is accumulating. And at some point the market will kick back into gear. It’s possible that prices have bottomed out, and it seems likely that today’s interest rates won’t be around a year from now. There will be catch-up activity, but the big question is timing. We’ll have to see what happens with employment, the economy, and with today’s tight credit,” (See full text at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101216.aspx )
Here in Marin County the market is mixed, with some areas doing much better than others. Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows Greenbrae, which topped the charts last month at 46.15% in contract has extended its lead to an astonishing 60.87% in contract, representing 14 of 23 homes on the market in that area. Nothing else in the County even comes close. Novato in 2nd place at 39.76%, down just slightly from last month, a very popular market with lots of attractively priced homes as a result of REO's and short sales. Ross next at 33%, followed by San Anselmo at 29.8%. Belvedere, with its high-end homes still at the bottom of the sales heap with only 7.4% of listed homes in contract-- a fertile hunting ground for value-minded high-end home hunters.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
2010 ended with a total of 1836 sold SFR units in the County, compared to 1668 for the year 2009, hanging on to a year-over-year gain of just over 10% despite a constant erosion since last summer after the end of the buyer tax credits. Active inventory at 622 units, and months supply of inventory at 4.1 as of December 31. New listings in December were down to 110, all figures the lowest in over 24 months. There were 212 accepted offers on SFR's in December, bringing the ratio of accepted offers to existing inventory to 34.1%, and accepted offers to new listings to 192.7%, all three representing the greatest numbers in over 24 months. SFR percentage in contract down slightly overall from 28.17% to 27.14%, with the under-$1million segment down about 1.25 percentage points and the $1million to $2million segment down about 3 percentage points. Big news, though, is that the $2million-$3million segment up substantially from 7.25% in contract at the beginning of December to 17.39% on January 6. This due more to the decrease in listed homes from 69 units to 46 than to the increase of homes in contract from 5 to 8 units. Sold SFR units for December at 151. This compares to 180 in December of 2009 and only 91 in December of 2008. Inventory down, accepted offers up, months supply of inventory down.
Condo statistics reveal a similar story with months supply of inventory at 5.4, the lowest since December of '09 when it stood at 5.2. Since then, it has been as high at 10.6 (in July). The ratio of accepted offers to inventory for December was 32.8%, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings 178.4%, both the highest in over 24 months. Active inventory at 201 condo units on Dec 31. This compares to 251 in December of '09 and 272 in '08. Number of condo units sold at the end of 2010 was 477, about 5.9% less than the 505 units sold in 2009.
A number of real estate agents in the County were unusually busy during the traditionally sleepy period between Thanksgiving and the end of the year. What this means is not clear at this time. Lots of discussion and conjecture among even experienced agents, but the truth is it will probably be about 6 weeks before a trend is established and we get a better idea of how 2011 may look for real estate. As in previous recoveries, we will probably not recognize the market bottom until after we have passed it and prices are on the way up. One thing we do know is that there are plenty of good real estate bargains out there right now. Picking a market bottom is extremely difficult and those who accomplish it often owe it to luck more than to skill. For the rest of us it may just be that waiting for a better deal later could deprive us of a very good deal now.
More later. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http/www.fredanlyan.com
A December 16 article by MDA DataQuick, a San Diego-based real estate news service, quoted their president,John Walsh, who, predicting recovery, but hedging his bets on timing, said:
“The thing is, demand is accumulating. And at some point the market will kick back into gear. It’s possible that prices have bottomed out, and it seems likely that today’s interest rates won’t be around a year from now. There will be catch-up activity, but the big question is timing. We’ll have to see what happens with employment, the economy, and with today’s tight credit,” (See full text at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101216.aspx )
Here in Marin County the market is mixed, with some areas doing much better than others. Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows Greenbrae, which topped the charts last month at 46.15% in contract has extended its lead to an astonishing 60.87% in contract, representing 14 of 23 homes on the market in that area. Nothing else in the County even comes close. Novato in 2nd place at 39.76%, down just slightly from last month, a very popular market with lots of attractively priced homes as a result of REO's and short sales. Ross next at 33%, followed by San Anselmo at 29.8%. Belvedere, with its high-end homes still at the bottom of the sales heap with only 7.4% of listed homes in contract-- a fertile hunting ground for value-minded high-end home hunters.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
2010 ended with a total of 1836 sold SFR units in the County, compared to 1668 for the year 2009, hanging on to a year-over-year gain of just over 10% despite a constant erosion since last summer after the end of the buyer tax credits. Active inventory at 622 units, and months supply of inventory at 4.1 as of December 31. New listings in December were down to 110, all figures the lowest in over 24 months. There were 212 accepted offers on SFR's in December, bringing the ratio of accepted offers to existing inventory to 34.1%, and accepted offers to new listings to 192.7%, all three representing the greatest numbers in over 24 months. SFR percentage in contract down slightly overall from 28.17% to 27.14%, with the under-$1million segment down about 1.25 percentage points and the $1million to $2million segment down about 3 percentage points. Big news, though, is that the $2million-$3million segment up substantially from 7.25% in contract at the beginning of December to 17.39% on January 6. This due more to the decrease in listed homes from 69 units to 46 than to the increase of homes in contract from 5 to 8 units. Sold SFR units for December at 151. This compares to 180 in December of 2009 and only 91 in December of 2008. Inventory down, accepted offers up, months supply of inventory down.
Condo statistics reveal a similar story with months supply of inventory at 5.4, the lowest since December of '09 when it stood at 5.2. Since then, it has been as high at 10.6 (in July). The ratio of accepted offers to inventory for December was 32.8%, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings 178.4%, both the highest in over 24 months. Active inventory at 201 condo units on Dec 31. This compares to 251 in December of '09 and 272 in '08. Number of condo units sold at the end of 2010 was 477, about 5.9% less than the 505 units sold in 2009.
A number of real estate agents in the County were unusually busy during the traditionally sleepy period between Thanksgiving and the end of the year. What this means is not clear at this time. Lots of discussion and conjecture among even experienced agents, but the truth is it will probably be about 6 weeks before a trend is established and we get a better idea of how 2011 may look for real estate. As in previous recoveries, we will probably not recognize the market bottom until after we have passed it and prices are on the way up. One thing we do know is that there are plenty of good real estate bargains out there right now. Picking a market bottom is extremely difficult and those who accomplish it often owe it to luck more than to skill. For the rest of us it may just be that waiting for a better deal later could deprive us of a very good deal now.
More later. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http/www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, December 13, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 12.12.10
Hello Everyone,
Going into the Holiday Season, the Marin County real estate market has definitely not settled down for a long winter's nap-- at least not yet.
November month-end statistics from Coldwell Banker MarketQuest (MQ)* show both single family and condo activity smoked recent averagees with inventory down and new sales contracts up!
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Inventory down to 845 (MQ)* units from 1,111 in October. This compares to 1,000 in Nov of 2009, and 980 in 2008. There were 214 accepted offers on SFR's this November, compared to 154 in Nov of '09 and only 89 in the same period in '08. November's accepted offers as a percentage of total SFR inventory were 25.3%, compared to 17.5% in October, 15.4% in Nov of 2009, and just 9.1% in Nov. of '08. Months supply of inventory down to 5.8 from 7.5 in October. YTD SFR sales continue to lead '09's but the pace continues to lag with 1708 units sold by 12/7 compared to the year-ago figure of 1530. This represents an increase of 11.6%, but two weeks ago, it was up 13%. As we have mentioned, this deceleration has been going on for several months now since the homebuyer tax credits expired. The good news is that with the recent encouraging sales activity, it appears that we will hold on to finish the year on the "plus" side. Properties under $1million still selling well, with 35.25% of SFR's listed on the Marin MLS in contract as of 12/7. Upper end of the market dropped back again in November with only 7.25% of properties listed at $2-$3million and 3.66% of those over $3million in contract on December 7.
Condo's
Condo inventory also down at 254 (MQ)* vs. 309 at the end of October. Compares to 281 in Nov. '09 and 306 in '08. November brought 72 accepted condo offers, 20 more than in Nov. '09 and25 above '08. Accepted offers as a percentage of inventory were 25.3, up from October's 17.5%, easily beating the Nov. '09 figure of 15.4% and Nov '08's 9.1%. Months supply of inventory dropped to 5.8 from this October's 7.5.
With numbers like this, it seems fairly clear that something is going on. The attached monthly City-by-City Report (Marin MLS)* reveals where most of the action is. Greenbrae continues to lead the pack, with 12 of 26 (46.5%) of listed properties in contract as of 11/30. Next in line is Novato, with 40.45% (125 of 309 listed properties), a very nice increase from October's 36.6%. San Rafael showing encouraging activity with an increase to 31.09% (97 of 312 listed properties) from October's 24.6%. Belvedere still stuck in last place with a drop to 10.26% from last report's 15.56%. 12/7's YTD condo sales figure of 444 units down 5.9% from last year's level of 472 at the same time. 27.5% of condo's under $1million in contract on 12/7 compared to October's 33.02%, but sales activity up (MQ) with 45 units sold in November compared to 31 in October, more or less on par with 09's November figure of 45 and '08's 47 units.
Please take a look at the relatively recent Market Action Reports for both Condo's and SFR's. I think you will find them useful and informative.
This will be the last report until the beginning of the New Year.
Until then, best wishes to one and all for an enjoyable and safe Holiday Season and a prosperous, happy, healthy, and successful the New Year.
Fred
* Percentage in contract and other figures are often inconsistent between Market Quest and MLS due to differences in the way the two systems count active listings
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fred Anlyan, MBA
Broker Associate
Previews Property Specialist
Direct: (415) 464-3509
Fax: (415) 925-0962
Email: fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com
Website: Visit My Website for access to spreadsheets
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Going into the Holiday Season, the Marin County real estate market has definitely not settled down for a long winter's nap-- at least not yet.
November month-end statistics from Coldwell Banker MarketQuest (MQ)* show both single family and condo activity smoked recent averagees with inventory down and new sales contracts up!
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Inventory down to 845 (MQ)* units from 1,111 in October. This compares to 1,000 in Nov of 2009, and 980 in 2008. There were 214 accepted offers on SFR's this November, compared to 154 in Nov of '09 and only 89 in the same period in '08. November's accepted offers as a percentage of total SFR inventory were 25.3%, compared to 17.5% in October, 15.4% in Nov of 2009, and just 9.1% in Nov. of '08. Months supply of inventory down to 5.8 from 7.5 in October. YTD SFR sales continue to lead '09's but the pace continues to lag with 1708 units sold by 12/7 compared to the year-ago figure of 1530. This represents an increase of 11.6%, but two weeks ago, it was up 13%. As we have mentioned, this deceleration has been going on for several months now since the homebuyer tax credits expired. The good news is that with the recent encouraging sales activity, it appears that we will hold on to finish the year on the "plus" side. Properties under $1million still selling well, with 35.25% of SFR's listed on the Marin MLS in contract as of 12/7. Upper end of the market dropped back again in November with only 7.25% of properties listed at $2-$3million and 3.66% of those over $3million in contract on December 7.
Condo's
Condo inventory also down at 254 (MQ)* vs. 309 at the end of October. Compares to 281 in Nov. '09 and 306 in '08. November brought 72 accepted condo offers, 20 more than in Nov. '09 and25 above '08. Accepted offers as a percentage of inventory were 25.3, up from October's 17.5%, easily beating the Nov. '09 figure of 15.4% and Nov '08's 9.1%. Months supply of inventory dropped to 5.8 from this October's 7.5.
With numbers like this, it seems fairly clear that something is going on. The attached monthly City-by-City Report (Marin MLS)* reveals where most of the action is. Greenbrae continues to lead the pack, with 12 of 26 (46.5%) of listed properties in contract as of 11/30. Next in line is Novato, with 40.45% (125 of 309 listed properties), a very nice increase from October's 36.6%. San Rafael showing encouraging activity with an increase to 31.09% (97 of 312 listed properties) from October's 24.6%. Belvedere still stuck in last place with a drop to 10.26% from last report's 15.56%. 12/7's YTD condo sales figure of 444 units down 5.9% from last year's level of 472 at the same time. 27.5% of condo's under $1million in contract on 12/7 compared to October's 33.02%, but sales activity up (MQ) with 45 units sold in November compared to 31 in October, more or less on par with 09's November figure of 45 and '08's 47 units.
Please take a look at the relatively recent Market Action Reports for both Condo's and SFR's. I think you will find them useful and informative.
This will be the last report until the beginning of the New Year.
Until then, best wishes to one and all for an enjoyable and safe Holiday Season and a prosperous, happy, healthy, and successful the New Year.
Fred
* Percentage in contract and other figures are often inconsistent between Market Quest and MLS due to differences in the way the two systems count active listings
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fred Anlyan, MBA
Broker Associate
Previews Property Specialist
Direct: (415) 464-3509
Fax: (415) 925-0962
Email: fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com
Website: Visit My Website for access to spreadsheets
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, November 14, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 11.14.10
Hello Everyone,
Rumors filtering out from San Francisco indicate the commercial real estate market there may be starting to recover. Agent reports of increased office leasing activity in the last 6 weeks may be a hopeful sign indicating confidence and willingness to take risks returning on the part of businesses, investors, etc. If so, this should eventually spill over and assist with re-igniting other parts of the local economy. Respected analysts still split over whether there will be a significant economic recovery in the coming year or we will be forced to wait until 2012 and beyond. A number of voices on both sides, with some predicting further declines and others predicting stabilization and recovery in the coming months.
Activity here in Marin County remains stable, with inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) declining 71 units since last report, and Condo inventory off 3 units.
As of November 8, there were 1152 Single Family Residences listed for sale on the Marin County MLS, and 298 of those were in contract. Percentage in contract up slightly in all price segments except for the $1million to $1.99 million range, where it was off half a percentage point, or essentially unchanged. The key “entry-level” under-one million segment up from 30.96% to 31.64%, while the over-$3million segment increased from 7.84% to 9% on the strength of a 2 unit decline in inventory and a 1 unit increase in listings in contract. Small numbers like that provide evidence too thin to make market generalizations, but the good news is that some of those upper-end properties are continuing to move!
Average SFR list price in the County for YTD sold properties was $!,084,122 as of November 8, and The average sale price was $1,033,768. This compares to the year-ago figures of $1,051,107 list and $998,862 sold. Days on market this year at 92, a slight improvement over the 97 day figure at this time last year. Continuing to be troubling, the YTD units-sold figure decelerated again and is now up 15.3% for the year, compared to 18% at last report. With about a month and a half remaining in the year, it looks as though we may end up just about even or perhaps only slightly ahead of last year’s unit sales numbers. That would seem to confirm what a lot of folks have been saying about the federal tax stimulus program only pushing sales into the first part of the year.
Condominium listings on the Marin MLS were 348 on November 8. 114 of those, or 32.76% were in contract. This remains virtually unchanged from last report’s 33.05%. Of the 348 units, only 19 were priced over $1million, and of those, only 2 units were in contract, surprisingly both in the $2million-$2.99 million price range. The $1million to $1.99 million price segment had 17 active listings and none of those were in contract. Condo prices up slightly over this time last year, with YTD sold unit average list price at $417,078 and average sold price at $404,755. This compares to $387,599 and $374,610 at the same time last year. Days on the market for sold units to November 8 are 113 this year vs. 102 last year at this time. Total YTD condo units sold as of November 8 were 404 compared to the 2009 figure of 424 on the same date. The 20 unit decrease represents a decline of approximately 4.7%.
Where is this market headed? Business school professors are fond of saying that good market information results in efficient markets and that the better the information, the more efficient the market. While we have plenty of information, we have very little in the way of agreement about what it means. One thing is sure. Eventually the real estate market will recover. Those who bought near the bottom will be the envy of those who waited what will have turned out to be too long.. So the question becomes not “are we at the bottom of this market”, but “are we near the bottom”, or “are we still on the way down or are we on the way back up”?? There will be people who take action based on their best understanding of the information available, and if the past is any indication, some of them will do very well indeed!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Rumors filtering out from San Francisco indicate the commercial real estate market there may be starting to recover. Agent reports of increased office leasing activity in the last 6 weeks may be a hopeful sign indicating confidence and willingness to take risks returning on the part of businesses, investors, etc. If so, this should eventually spill over and assist with re-igniting other parts of the local economy. Respected analysts still split over whether there will be a significant economic recovery in the coming year or we will be forced to wait until 2012 and beyond. A number of voices on both sides, with some predicting further declines and others predicting stabilization and recovery in the coming months.
Activity here in Marin County remains stable, with inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) declining 71 units since last report, and Condo inventory off 3 units.
As of November 8, there were 1152 Single Family Residences listed for sale on the Marin County MLS, and 298 of those were in contract. Percentage in contract up slightly in all price segments except for the $1million to $1.99 million range, where it was off half a percentage point, or essentially unchanged. The key “entry-level” under-one million segment up from 30.96% to 31.64%, while the over-$3million segment increased from 7.84% to 9% on the strength of a 2 unit decline in inventory and a 1 unit increase in listings in contract. Small numbers like that provide evidence too thin to make market generalizations, but the good news is that some of those upper-end properties are continuing to move!
Average SFR list price in the County for YTD sold properties was $!,084,122 as of November 8, and The average sale price was $1,033,768. This compares to the year-ago figures of $1,051,107 list and $998,862 sold. Days on market this year at 92, a slight improvement over the 97 day figure at this time last year. Continuing to be troubling, the YTD units-sold figure decelerated again and is now up 15.3% for the year, compared to 18% at last report. With about a month and a half remaining in the year, it looks as though we may end up just about even or perhaps only slightly ahead of last year’s unit sales numbers. That would seem to confirm what a lot of folks have been saying about the federal tax stimulus program only pushing sales into the first part of the year.
Condominium listings on the Marin MLS were 348 on November 8. 114 of those, or 32.76% were in contract. This remains virtually unchanged from last report’s 33.05%. Of the 348 units, only 19 were priced over $1million, and of those, only 2 units were in contract, surprisingly both in the $2million-$2.99 million price range. The $1million to $1.99 million price segment had 17 active listings and none of those were in contract. Condo prices up slightly over this time last year, with YTD sold unit average list price at $417,078 and average sold price at $404,755. This compares to $387,599 and $374,610 at the same time last year. Days on the market for sold units to November 8 are 113 this year vs. 102 last year at this time. Total YTD condo units sold as of November 8 were 404 compared to the 2009 figure of 424 on the same date. The 20 unit decrease represents a decline of approximately 4.7%.
Where is this market headed? Business school professors are fond of saying that good market information results in efficient markets and that the better the information, the more efficient the market. While we have plenty of information, we have very little in the way of agreement about what it means. One thing is sure. Eventually the real estate market will recover. Those who bought near the bottom will be the envy of those who waited what will have turned out to be too long.. So the question becomes not “are we at the bottom of this market”, but “are we near the bottom”, or “are we still on the way down or are we on the way back up”?? There will be people who take action based on their best understanding of the information available, and if the past is any indication, some of them will do very well indeed!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, November 1, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 11.1.10
Hello Everyone,
Stock market continues strong, with traders anticipating more federal intervention to stimulate the economy.
Marin County percentage of homes in contract for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condos up at every price point. Active inventory of both SFR's and Condo's down 10% or more from October levels of the last two years. October's accepted offers up up up over year-ago and two-year-ago levels for both condo's and SFR's. Monthly City--by-City Report shows 10 of 13 cities and towns covered increased their percentage in contract in October while only 3 (Tiburon, Corte Madera, and Larkspur) experienced a decrease. At the same time, units sold are down down down for October from levels of the last two years.
People are confused about the market. Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, afraid to buy now in case prices go lower later. Many sellers are reluctant to sell now, holding on, and hoping that prices may be higher next year. No one knows for sure but everyone seems to have an opinion---
In an article dated October 21, San Diego based MDA Data Quick, a real estate news service, noted the continuing downward trend in the Bay Area housing market, stating, in part:
"Bay Area home sales fell year-over-year for the fourth consecutive month in September, dropping 27 percent below average, as historically-low mortgage rates failed to nudge many would-be buyers off the sidelines---"
"Last month’s sales were the lowest for any September since 2007, when 5,014 homes sold, and were the second-lowest since September 1991, when 5,735 sold. September sales fell 26.7 percent below the average September sales tally of 8,641 since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. September sales have ranged from a low of 5,735 in 1991 to a high of 13,343 in 2003."
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president was quoted as saying “The sidelines are getting awfully crowded in this housing game. They’re lined with people who have the ability to buy now but are waiting for the right moment, and with people who have the means but lack job confidence. Then you have all of the folks who don’t have the equity, don’t have a job or can’t qualify for the larger, so-called jumbo mortgages that were once so common in the Bay Area,” “Sales have been so low for so long – 27 percent below average last month – that significant pent-up demand is accumulating. When it will be released will depend largely on when the economy rebounds more convincingly, spurring more jobs and higher consumer confidence. If, in the meantime, prices fall more and interest rates stay the same or edge lower, then it’s easy to imagine a burst of sales activity at some point. Next spring could be very interesting.”
Read the full text of the article at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101021.aspx
In an Associated Press article dated 10/26/2010, Columnist Alan Zibel stated:
"The foreclosure problem is far from over. A "shadow inventory" of homes on the verge of foreclosure is bound to force prices lower well into next year. About 2 million loans are in foreclosure, and another 2.4 million borrowers have missed at least 90 days of mortgage payments, according to LPS Applied Analytics.
"It's like a never-ending supply" of homes, said Daniel Alpert, managing partner at the New York investment bank Westwood Capital. He expects prices to fall another 10 percent over the next year — and not improve much after that.
Full text of article available at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39845654/ns/business-real_estate/
Writing for cnn.money.com, staff analyst Les Christie, in a November 1 article, wrote:
"The good news is, 'There'll be no vicious, self-reinforcing spiral down,' according to Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Analytics.
But, he added, 'more home price declines are coming'. He's forecasting another 8% drop in home prices through the third quarter of 2011, which will put the total peak-to-trough decline at 34%."
Read the text of that article at:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/01/real_estate/housing_market_state/index.htm
Of course, some of these articles are written about the nation-wide real estate picture. Even the local article describes the current market throughout the entire Bay Area and if we know one thing, it is that real estate is local. We cannot completely escape national trends and global economic effects, but we do have a unique market here in Marin County. Having said that, it is important to recognize that the houses that are selling here are competitively priced. Even in areas with a percentage in contract that traditionally signifies a sellers' market, sellers cannot afford to ignore buyers' price sensitivity. Houses priced right are selling while those priced higher are sitting. Buyers are doing their homework. They are patient and they are picky. Even in multiple-offer situations, properties often not going much over list price. There are some multiple- offer deals that don't even make it all the way to list price and are going out at discounts. Lots of escrows falling through when buyers and sellers can't agree---- or buyers change their minds during the contingency period. Banks being really tough on appraisals so even if a prospective buyer agrees to an over-optimistic price, an altitude-adjusting moment arrives when the appraisal comes back lower than the contract price, leaving the buyer with a choice of re-negotiating, getting out of contract, or making up the difference with an increased down payment.
If past cycles are any indication, we are somewhere near the bottom of this one and prices will be going up. Only time will tell where this market is headed and how quickly, but today's Buyers have a tremendous opportunity to purchase properties that they could only have dreamed of of owning just two years ago.
More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Stock market continues strong, with traders anticipating more federal intervention to stimulate the economy.
Marin County percentage of homes in contract for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condos up at every price point. Active inventory of both SFR's and Condo's down 10% or more from October levels of the last two years. October's accepted offers up up up over year-ago and two-year-ago levels for both condo's and SFR's. Monthly City--by-City Report shows 10 of 13 cities and towns covered increased their percentage in contract in October while only 3 (Tiburon, Corte Madera, and Larkspur) experienced a decrease. At the same time, units sold are down down down for October from levels of the last two years.
People are confused about the market. Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, afraid to buy now in case prices go lower later. Many sellers are reluctant to sell now, holding on, and hoping that prices may be higher next year. No one knows for sure but everyone seems to have an opinion---
In an article dated October 21, San Diego based MDA Data Quick, a real estate news service, noted the continuing downward trend in the Bay Area housing market, stating, in part:
"Bay Area home sales fell year-over-year for the fourth consecutive month in September, dropping 27 percent below average, as historically-low mortgage rates failed to nudge many would-be buyers off the sidelines---"
"Last month’s sales were the lowest for any September since 2007, when 5,014 homes sold, and were the second-lowest since September 1991, when 5,735 sold. September sales fell 26.7 percent below the average September sales tally of 8,641 since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. September sales have ranged from a low of 5,735 in 1991 to a high of 13,343 in 2003."
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president was quoted as saying “The sidelines are getting awfully crowded in this housing game. They’re lined with people who have the ability to buy now but are waiting for the right moment, and with people who have the means but lack job confidence. Then you have all of the folks who don’t have the equity, don’t have a job or can’t qualify for the larger, so-called jumbo mortgages that were once so common in the Bay Area,” “Sales have been so low for so long – 27 percent below average last month – that significant pent-up demand is accumulating. When it will be released will depend largely on when the economy rebounds more convincingly, spurring more jobs and higher consumer confidence. If, in the meantime, prices fall more and interest rates stay the same or edge lower, then it’s easy to imagine a burst of sales activity at some point. Next spring could be very interesting.”
Read the full text of the article at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101021.aspx
In an Associated Press article dated 10/26/2010, Columnist Alan Zibel stated:
"The foreclosure problem is far from over. A "shadow inventory" of homes on the verge of foreclosure is bound to force prices lower well into next year. About 2 million loans are in foreclosure, and another 2.4 million borrowers have missed at least 90 days of mortgage payments, according to LPS Applied Analytics.
"It's like a never-ending supply" of homes, said Daniel Alpert, managing partner at the New York investment bank Westwood Capital. He expects prices to fall another 10 percent over the next year — and not improve much after that.
Full text of article available at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39845654/ns/business-real_estate/
Writing for cnn.money.com, staff analyst Les Christie, in a November 1 article, wrote:
"The good news is, 'There'll be no vicious, self-reinforcing spiral down,' according to Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Analytics.
But, he added, 'more home price declines are coming'. He's forecasting another 8% drop in home prices through the third quarter of 2011, which will put the total peak-to-trough decline at 34%."
Read the text of that article at:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/01/real_estate/housing_market_state/index.htm
Of course, some of these articles are written about the nation-wide real estate picture. Even the local article describes the current market throughout the entire Bay Area and if we know one thing, it is that real estate is local. We cannot completely escape national trends and global economic effects, but we do have a unique market here in Marin County. Having said that, it is important to recognize that the houses that are selling here are competitively priced. Even in areas with a percentage in contract that traditionally signifies a sellers' market, sellers cannot afford to ignore buyers' price sensitivity. Houses priced right are selling while those priced higher are sitting. Buyers are doing their homework. They are patient and they are picky. Even in multiple-offer situations, properties often not going much over list price. There are some multiple- offer deals that don't even make it all the way to list price and are going out at discounts. Lots of escrows falling through when buyers and sellers can't agree---- or buyers change their minds during the contingency period. Banks being really tough on appraisals so even if a prospective buyer agrees to an over-optimistic price, an altitude-adjusting moment arrives when the appraisal comes back lower than the contract price, leaving the buyer with a choice of re-negotiating, getting out of contract, or making up the difference with an increased down payment.
If past cycles are any indication, we are somewhere near the bottom of this one and prices will be going up. Only time will tell where this market is headed and how quickly, but today's Buyers have a tremendous opportunity to purchase properties that they could only have dreamed of of owning just two years ago.
More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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