Hello Everyone,
Rumors filtering out from San Francisco indicate the commercial real estate market there may be starting to recover. Agent reports of increased office leasing activity in the last 6 weeks may be a hopeful sign indicating confidence and willingness to take risks returning on the part of businesses, investors, etc. If so, this should eventually spill over and assist with re-igniting other parts of the local economy. Respected analysts still split over whether there will be a significant economic recovery in the coming year or we will be forced to wait until 2012 and beyond. A number of voices on both sides, with some predicting further declines and others predicting stabilization and recovery in the coming months.
Activity here in Marin County remains stable, with inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) declining 71 units since last report, and Condo inventory off 3 units.
As of November 8, there were 1152 Single Family Residences listed for sale on the Marin County MLS, and 298 of those were in contract. Percentage in contract up slightly in all price segments except for the $1million to $1.99 million range, where it was off half a percentage point, or essentially unchanged. The key “entry-level” under-one million segment up from 30.96% to 31.64%, while the over-$3million segment increased from 7.84% to 9% on the strength of a 2 unit decline in inventory and a 1 unit increase in listings in contract. Small numbers like that provide evidence too thin to make market generalizations, but the good news is that some of those upper-end properties are continuing to move!
Average SFR list price in the County for YTD sold properties was $!,084,122 as of November 8, and The average sale price was $1,033,768. This compares to the year-ago figures of $1,051,107 list and $998,862 sold. Days on market this year at 92, a slight improvement over the 97 day figure at this time last year. Continuing to be troubling, the YTD units-sold figure decelerated again and is now up 15.3% for the year, compared to 18% at last report. With about a month and a half remaining in the year, it looks as though we may end up just about even or perhaps only slightly ahead of last year’s unit sales numbers. That would seem to confirm what a lot of folks have been saying about the federal tax stimulus program only pushing sales into the first part of the year.
Condominium listings on the Marin MLS were 348 on November 8. 114 of those, or 32.76% were in contract. This remains virtually unchanged from last report’s 33.05%. Of the 348 units, only 19 were priced over $1million, and of those, only 2 units were in contract, surprisingly both in the $2million-$2.99 million price range. The $1million to $1.99 million price segment had 17 active listings and none of those were in contract. Condo prices up slightly over this time last year, with YTD sold unit average list price at $417,078 and average sold price at $404,755. This compares to $387,599 and $374,610 at the same time last year. Days on the market for sold units to November 8 are 113 this year vs. 102 last year at this time. Total YTD condo units sold as of November 8 were 404 compared to the 2009 figure of 424 on the same date. The 20 unit decrease represents a decline of approximately 4.7%.
Where is this market headed? Business school professors are fond of saying that good market information results in efficient markets and that the better the information, the more efficient the market. While we have plenty of information, we have very little in the way of agreement about what it means. One thing is sure. Eventually the real estate market will recover. Those who bought near the bottom will be the envy of those who waited what will have turned out to be too long.. So the question becomes not “are we at the bottom of this market”, but “are we near the bottom”, or “are we still on the way down or are we on the way back up”?? There will be people who take action based on their best understanding of the information available, and if the past is any indication, some of them will do very well indeed!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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