Hello Everyone,
DataQuick Information Systems, a San Diego-based real estate news and information service, in a February 17 article, quoted its President, John Walsh, as saying something we have been emphacizing for the last couple of reports:
"January and February are the two months of the year that are the least predictive of upcoming trends. That said, last month’s activity was a continuation of trends we saw much of last year. The market is still dominated by distress sales and bargain hunting. We’re seeing little discretionary activity”.
However, the article also includes a chart comparing 2010 and 2011 YTD housing sales volume and prices by County. That table shows January (combined SFR and condo) unit home sales in Mariin County up 13.7% from 153 in January 2010 to 174 this year even though the median sales price for the period was down 6.5% from $535,000 to $500,000. These numbers are not exactly the same as ours (from the local MLS) but show the same trend--- unit sales up (mostly attributable to condo sales) and prices down. Full text of the DataQuick article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110217.aspx
A recent check of the Bareis/ Rappatoni MLS revealed that 269 out of 823 total SFR listings in Marin (over 32%) and 138 of 274 Condo listings (about 50%) were some sort of distressed sale (foreclosure, NOD, REO, VA repo, or short sale). Much of this activity is in Novato and San Rafael, but there is a significant amount of it throughout the County. Low prices generated by these distressed sales tend to keep a lid on non-distressed inventory as well. Inventory of homes for sale is low because owners who can postpone selling in this market tend to do so, hoping to get a better price later. Immaculate, extremely well-located homes do buck this trend a bit though they are still subject to its general influence. Owners who do choose to sell now are well-advised to pay careful attention to comparable sales and to dress their home for success by staging attractively and making it easy to show. Professional photography can make an enormous difference in a home's appearance on the MLS, generating more interest and more showings. Our formula of Preparation, Presentation, and Pricing bears repeatimg again and again. An experienced, professional REALTOR, familiar with your neighborhood is your best ally when planning to sell your home in today's market environment.
Many buyers still feeling frustrated by lack of available inventory. Multiple offers often generated when several of them pounce on the same attractive listing at the same time. Some of these multiple-offer situations are going over asking price, but not anywhere near as much as in the hot markets of just a few years ago. Recent gains in the stock market have folks feeling more confident about the economy and more comfortable about making a long-term financial commitment to a mortgage, although financial fallout from the recession/depression like Borders Books declaring bankruptcy last week, continues to dog the economy.
Many local real estate agents optimistic about prospects for better sales in 2011. Open houses are well-attended. Buyers are out in force and writing offers. Escrows are being opened. Some are falling through, but many are closing. There is anticipation in the air. Stock market is up. News of interest rates heading up is starting to make some buyers wonder if it is time to jump on board the train before it leaves the station. Are they correct? We will see soon enough.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes, to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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