for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone and Happy New Year,
As usual, the Marin County real estate market took a bit of a breather over the Holidays, so not too much action to report.
Before Christmas, President Bush announced a mini-bailout of the big 3, essentially assuring enough cash to last until the Obama inauguration. Whatever the new administration decides to do will be revealed soon enough, but financial markets calmed somewhat by the present administration's actions. Dow Jones was actually back in 9000 territory for a few days, but still very sensitive to continuing adverse economic news and currently back in the mid-8000 range. Mortgage interest rates at historic lows for those who have good income and good credit. This, combined with soft housing prices makes the current market a great opportunity for many buyers who have previously been frozen out by escalating prices and high rates. For those who are waiting for the market to drop further, there is no guarantee that will happen here in Marin. The prospect of a better deal in the future may be the enemy of a good deal now!
City-by-City report shows San Rafael, Novato, and Ross as the only "sellers' " markets as of January 2. San Rafael and Novato in this territory largely as the result of discount pricing led by REO's (bank owned property), and Ross with 4 of 13 properties in escrow could have significantly different statistics with one more property in or out of escrow. Other Marin locations in either Buyers' or Strong Buyers' territory, with Sausalito at the bottom of the heap showing only 2 of 30 properties in escrow as of January 2, or 6.6%.
Single Family Residences (SFR) showed 713 units on the market as of January 6, and 128 in contract, or 17.95%- a significant drop from Dec 16 when it was 152 properties in escrow out of 783 on the market. Homes under $1 million doing better at 25.56% in contract, a balanced market. Upper-end homes languishing at less than 10% in contract. This reflects the current more stringent lending guidelines for "jumbo" mortgages. Buyers who can either pay cash or with enough down payment to eliminate the need for jumbo mortgages on high-end properties are in great position now. From December 31 to January 6, there were 29 new listings and 42 price reductions. 12 units went contingent, 13 pending, and 23 units were sold. 71 listings expired, and 24 were withdrawn or are temporarily off the market.
Condominium inventory at 256, only 9 fewer units than on December 16. 31.25% in contract making it technically a "sellers' " market, down from just over 35% in contract in mid-December. During the 7 days from December 31 to January 6 there were 12 new condo listings, 9 price reductions, 9 units went contingent, 10 pending, and 8 units sold during the period. There were 21 expired listings and 3 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
Marin Association of Realtors has advised that they will not have the official Marin County year-end figures available until at least the end of the 3rd week in January. The Marin County Annual Sales Comparison from 1965 to present will be available shortly after that. In the meantime, here are some figures compiled for the current edition of the Coldwell Banker "Marin Market Update" newsletter.
Marin County Sales Analysis Link
http://www.cbnorcalevents.com/MARIN/newsletter/January09/MRERJanuary09-2.html
More in a couple of weeks.
In the meantime, best wishes to all,
Fred
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