The Anlyan Report - Marin County Real Estate

12.19.2008

for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com


Hello Everyone,

Wishing everyone a wonderful and safe Holiday Season and a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year.

In the new year, reports will be twice a month, at the beginning and in the middle of the month. This will be the last report in 2008.

In financial news for the week, President Bush announced a bailout plan for Detroit. Lots of opposition to this from folks who contend that automakers have mis-managed their business for many years now, relying on the "cash cow" sales from SUV's instead of looking towards the future and developing sustainable products and strategies. Argument is that they have had the opportunity to improve their products and their management since the first energy crisis in the early 70's. As usual, there are two sides to this story. In a normal economy, having one automaker declare bankruptcy might be an option. Feeling is that in the current economy, already in a major recession, the ripple effect on unemployment, investments, and other segments of the economy from having 2 or more automakers in bankruptcy is just too great to ignore. Stock market yawned at the news, actually losing 25 points on the Dow by the end of the day Friday, Dec 19. Meltdown probably avoided by Bush's action though. Remains to be seen what Obama administration will do starting in January and where this will all take us in 2009 and beyond. At least the new administration will now have a chance to work on a solution from a place of relative stability rather than chaos.
Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve reduced the rate at which it loans money to member banks to a range of 0-.25%, a historic low. Stocks rallied on that news.
San Francisco Chronicle headline for December 19 blares: "Rush To Refinance" "As mortgage rates plunge to lows not seen in decades, lenders brace for surge of homeowners taking advantage--but many troubled borrowers will be left out in the cold".

La Jolla-based DataQuick Real Estate News, in an article dated December 18, proclaimed:
Bay Area median home price sinks to 8-year low; sales up over '07 again
In part, the article stated:
"Bay Area home sales decelerated in November but beat the year-ago mark for the third consecutive month. The allure of discounted foreclosures continued to drive sales in affordable inland markets, which helped push the median sale price down to its lowest point since former President Bill Clinton was in the White House."
Article goes on to state how sales of bank-owned real estate are diluting the various Bay Area markets.
Full text of article available at
http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay081218.aspx

Only thing we can say for certain is that 2009 will be an action-packed year, and a year of great transition and great opportunity. Stay tuned for more excitement!

Marin County Real Estate:
Inventory was down again across the board. Some prospective sellers deferred action over the holidays in favor of waiting until January while a number of sellers with homes on the market withdrew them temporarily for the holidays.

Single Family Residences total active inventory down to 783 as of December 16 compared to 871 the previous week. Percentage in contract up slightly to 19.11% from 18.6% the week before--- still a buyers' market. Homes under $1million slipped slightly to 26.73% in contract, still technically a sellers' market. Some notable sales over asking price with multiple offers, but in general a very price-sensitive market with buyers choosy and skittish. Properties over $1million still a strong buyers' market-- great opportunity for buyers with cash to spend. More properties than usual dropping out of escrow during the contingency period. Important for sellers to pick buyers carefully and to be willing to negotiate in good faith. Services of an experienced local real estate professional invaluable in this market.

Condominium inventory down just four units from last week at 268. Percentage in contract up 2 points to 35%. 485 units sold year-to-date, compared to 494 at the same time last year. Anyone care to guess whether we will end the year even, ahead, or behind 2007? In any case, REO sales have driven average price down to $480,515 from last year's $647,376. Keep in mind that only part of this is price reduction, with part due to more lower-end homes being sold.

More in 2009.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Fred Anlyan, MBA
Broker Associate