The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 10.31.2008

For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com/

Hello Everyone,

Federal Reserve ("The Fed") cut interest rates again this week. Now down to 1%, the lowest level in 5 years. Also, rates have not been lower in 50 years. There is talk, however, that they could go even lower if market conditions warrant. Stock market rallied a bit and Dow Jones closed at 9180 on Thursday, Oct 30. Was trading at around 9300 as of mid-day on Friday, Halloween, but still a chance it could get "spooked" in the final hours and minutes of trading. Let's hope the uptrend continues and the markets begin to return to some semblance of normalcy. This would make most average folks feel more secure and less anxious about making the commitment to buy or sell a home.

Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory for the week down slightly again and percentage in contract also down overall at 16.7% in contract. Even the popular under-$1million price range down to 23.9% in contract, a buyers' market. Buyers could benefit from this rare opportunity. It probably will not last! Number of units sold during the period from 10/22 to 10/28 down from the same period a year ago --22 this year vs. 28 last year. This caused the YTD unit sales figure to reverse its recent catch-up trend and go further negative, if only by a bit, -20.7% this week vs. -20.4% last week. Average list price county-wide at $1,406,539 vs. last year's $1,448,650 and average sold price $1,303,038 vs. $1,369,558 in '07 at the same time. Days on market (DOM) (cumulative) at 86 vs. 73 at the same time last year. City-by-City report due out next week will tell us which towns and cities are hot and which are not. There were 42 new listings, 23 contingent sales, 14 pending, and 22 units sold during the period. 4 listings expired and 28 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market. There were 78 price reductions.

Condominium inventory decreased slightly, but percentage in contract remained stable, with condow overall at 32.2% in contract and condo's under $1million at 33.2%, both sellers' markets. Condo's from $1million to $2million (only 12 units at this time) were only 8.3% in contract, a major buyers' market and an opportunity for those looking to purchase units in this range. There was one unit on the market between $2million and $2,999,999 and it was not in contract. Average list price of condo's YTD $542,873 and average sold price $501,692 with days on market (cumulative) at 105. Last year's figures were: Average List $662,226; Average Sold $639,434, and 82 Days on Market. 14 units sold during the period from 10/22 to 10/28 compared to 7 units last year, pushing the total of YTD units sold to 407 vs. last year's 439 at the same time, or only 7.3% less and continuing to narrow the gap. This trend driven by low REO prices and buyers who recognize great value when they see it. For the period there were 17 new listings, 14 contingent, 11 pending, 15 sold. 7 listings expired, 7 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market, and there were 18 price reductions.

Presidential election next week. Probably a large psychological effect. Let's watch to see what happens.

Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred