For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Despite the dramatic swings in worldwide financial markets this week and in the recent past, the Marin County real estate market statistics show only incremental changes. It is important to understand that sales statistics come from closed escrows, which take 30 to 45 days on average to work their way through the system. So buyers' and sellers' reactions to last week's news will show up in a month or so. What we have now is evidence of what they did and thought last month. Notable exceptions to this are new listings (56 for single family homes this week, and 12 for condo's) and listings that went into contract, or "contingent" listings (36 for SFR and 13 for condo for the week). These two categories do reflect what buyers and sellers are doing now, in real time and the numbers say they are buying and selling real estate.
As we have noted before, monthly unit sales have been increasing compared to '07 for some time now and a lot of this activity is due to reduced prices brought about by foreclosure resales. The preponderance of this activity is in Novato and to a lesser extent in San Rafael where the markets are quite active but prices are down significantly from '07. La Jolla-based Data Quick Information Services published an article on this on October 21 which contains some interesting information. It is available online at:
http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay081021.aspx
Single Family Residences: (SFR)
Inventory down slightly in all segments up to $3 million. $3million and up segment unchanged at 93 listings. $0-$999,999 "entry-level" market just below "balanced" at 24.75% in contract, technically a buyers' market. For the 7 days ending October 21, 31 single family homes closed escrow compared to the year-ago figure of 21. This brought total YTD SFR sales to within 20% of '07's sales at the same point in time, continuing the recent trend.
Condominiums:
6 Condo's sold during the week as opposed to 7 last year, breaking a recent trend of exceeding the previous year's sales on a week-to-week basis. Condo's YTD unit sales now -9% compared to 07's sales at the same point in time. This compares to -8.9% last week. Let's just call it roughly even. Condo's under $1million showing as sellers' markets at 31.7% in contract vs. last week's statistics showing them as strong sellers' markets at over 35% in contract. Forward-looking investors and other buyers seeking value have been driving the recent activity in this market and will most likely continue to do so. Next week's figures may tell us more.
Activity and pricing for both SFR's and Condo's varies significantly by town or city as well as by neighborhood, and of course by the individual home. Experienced real estate professionals invaluable in assessing value of properties in this varied and changing market.
Mortgage money still available to qualified buyers but documentation has increased. Government guarantees on FHA and VA loans helping with loans under $729,750 limit. Jumbo loans more difficult to obtain but are available to those with appropriate income, credit, down payment. Important to have a top-notch lender or mortgage broker who will stay on top of your application and guide it through the process from beginning to end. Ask your real estate professional for a recommendation.
Looking for more stability after the November 4 election.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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