For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com/
Hello Everyone,
Federal Reserve ("The Fed") cut interest rates again this week. Now down to 1%, the lowest level in 5 years. Also, rates have not been lower in 50 years. There is talk, however, that they could go even lower if market conditions warrant. Stock market rallied a bit and Dow Jones closed at 9180 on Thursday, Oct 30. Was trading at around 9300 as of mid-day on Friday, Halloween, but still a chance it could get "spooked" in the final hours and minutes of trading. Let's hope the uptrend continues and the markets begin to return to some semblance of normalcy. This would make most average folks feel more secure and less anxious about making the commitment to buy or sell a home.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory for the week down slightly again and percentage in contract also down overall at 16.7% in contract. Even the popular under-$1million price range down to 23.9% in contract, a buyers' market. Buyers could benefit from this rare opportunity. It probably will not last! Number of units sold during the period from 10/22 to 10/28 down from the same period a year ago --22 this year vs. 28 last year. This caused the YTD unit sales figure to reverse its recent catch-up trend and go further negative, if only by a bit, -20.7% this week vs. -20.4% last week. Average list price county-wide at $1,406,539 vs. last year's $1,448,650 and average sold price $1,303,038 vs. $1,369,558 in '07 at the same time. Days on market (DOM) (cumulative) at 86 vs. 73 at the same time last year. City-by-City report due out next week will tell us which towns and cities are hot and which are not. There were 42 new listings, 23 contingent sales, 14 pending, and 22 units sold during the period. 4 listings expired and 28 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market. There were 78 price reductions.
Condominium inventory decreased slightly, but percentage in contract remained stable, with condow overall at 32.2% in contract and condo's under $1million at 33.2%, both sellers' markets. Condo's from $1million to $2million (only 12 units at this time) were only 8.3% in contract, a major buyers' market and an opportunity for those looking to purchase units in this range. There was one unit on the market between $2million and $2,999,999 and it was not in contract. Average list price of condo's YTD $542,873 and average sold price $501,692 with days on market (cumulative) at 105. Last year's figures were: Average List $662,226; Average Sold $639,434, and 82 Days on Market. 14 units sold during the period from 10/22 to 10/28 compared to 7 units last year, pushing the total of YTD units sold to 407 vs. last year's 439 at the same time, or only 7.3% less and continuing to narrow the gap. This trend driven by low REO prices and buyers who recognize great value when they see it. For the period there were 17 new listings, 14 contingent, 11 pending, 15 sold. 7 listings expired, 7 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market, and there were 18 price reductions.
Presidential election next week. Probably a large psychological effect. Let's watch to see what happens.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, October 31, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 10.25.2008
For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Despite the dramatic swings in worldwide financial markets this week and in the recent past, the Marin County real estate market statistics show only incremental changes. It is important to understand that sales statistics come from closed escrows, which take 30 to 45 days on average to work their way through the system. So buyers' and sellers' reactions to last week's news will show up in a month or so. What we have now is evidence of what they did and thought last month. Notable exceptions to this are new listings (56 for single family homes this week, and 12 for condo's) and listings that went into contract, or "contingent" listings (36 for SFR and 13 for condo for the week). These two categories do reflect what buyers and sellers are doing now, in real time and the numbers say they are buying and selling real estate.
As we have noted before, monthly unit sales have been increasing compared to '07 for some time now and a lot of this activity is due to reduced prices brought about by foreclosure resales. The preponderance of this activity is in Novato and to a lesser extent in San Rafael where the markets are quite active but prices are down significantly from '07. La Jolla-based Data Quick Information Services published an article on this on October 21 which contains some interesting information. It is available online at:
http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay081021.aspx
Single Family Residences: (SFR)
Inventory down slightly in all segments up to $3 million. $3million and up segment unchanged at 93 listings. $0-$999,999 "entry-level" market just below "balanced" at 24.75% in contract, technically a buyers' market. For the 7 days ending October 21, 31 single family homes closed escrow compared to the year-ago figure of 21. This brought total YTD SFR sales to within 20% of '07's sales at the same point in time, continuing the recent trend.
Condominiums:
6 Condo's sold during the week as opposed to 7 last year, breaking a recent trend of exceeding the previous year's sales on a week-to-week basis. Condo's YTD unit sales now -9% compared to 07's sales at the same point in time. This compares to -8.9% last week. Let's just call it roughly even. Condo's under $1million showing as sellers' markets at 31.7% in contract vs. last week's statistics showing them as strong sellers' markets at over 35% in contract. Forward-looking investors and other buyers seeking value have been driving the recent activity in this market and will most likely continue to do so. Next week's figures may tell us more.
Activity and pricing for both SFR's and Condo's varies significantly by town or city as well as by neighborhood, and of course by the individual home. Experienced real estate professionals invaluable in assessing value of properties in this varied and changing market.
Mortgage money still available to qualified buyers but documentation has increased. Government guarantees on FHA and VA loans helping with loans under $729,750 limit. Jumbo loans more difficult to obtain but are available to those with appropriate income, credit, down payment. Important to have a top-notch lender or mortgage broker who will stay on top of your application and guide it through the process from beginning to end. Ask your real estate professional for a recommendation.
Looking for more stability after the November 4 election.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Despite the dramatic swings in worldwide financial markets this week and in the recent past, the Marin County real estate market statistics show only incremental changes. It is important to understand that sales statistics come from closed escrows, which take 30 to 45 days on average to work their way through the system. So buyers' and sellers' reactions to last week's news will show up in a month or so. What we have now is evidence of what they did and thought last month. Notable exceptions to this are new listings (56 for single family homes this week, and 12 for condo's) and listings that went into contract, or "contingent" listings (36 for SFR and 13 for condo for the week). These two categories do reflect what buyers and sellers are doing now, in real time and the numbers say they are buying and selling real estate.
As we have noted before, monthly unit sales have been increasing compared to '07 for some time now and a lot of this activity is due to reduced prices brought about by foreclosure resales. The preponderance of this activity is in Novato and to a lesser extent in San Rafael where the markets are quite active but prices are down significantly from '07. La Jolla-based Data Quick Information Services published an article on this on October 21 which contains some interesting information. It is available online at:
http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay081021.aspx
Single Family Residences: (SFR)
Inventory down slightly in all segments up to $3 million. $3million and up segment unchanged at 93 listings. $0-$999,999 "entry-level" market just below "balanced" at 24.75% in contract, technically a buyers' market. For the 7 days ending October 21, 31 single family homes closed escrow compared to the year-ago figure of 21. This brought total YTD SFR sales to within 20% of '07's sales at the same point in time, continuing the recent trend.
Condominiums:
6 Condo's sold during the week as opposed to 7 last year, breaking a recent trend of exceeding the previous year's sales on a week-to-week basis. Condo's YTD unit sales now -9% compared to 07's sales at the same point in time. This compares to -8.9% last week. Let's just call it roughly even. Condo's under $1million showing as sellers' markets at 31.7% in contract vs. last week's statistics showing them as strong sellers' markets at over 35% in contract. Forward-looking investors and other buyers seeking value have been driving the recent activity in this market and will most likely continue to do so. Next week's figures may tell us more.
Activity and pricing for both SFR's and Condo's varies significantly by town or city as well as by neighborhood, and of course by the individual home. Experienced real estate professionals invaluable in assessing value of properties in this varied and changing market.
Mortgage money still available to qualified buyers but documentation has increased. Government guarantees on FHA and VA loans helping with loans under $729,750 limit. Jumbo loans more difficult to obtain but are available to those with appropriate income, credit, down payment. Important to have a top-notch lender or mortgage broker who will stay on top of your application and guide it through the process from beginning to end. Ask your real estate professional for a recommendation.
Looking for more stability after the November 4 election.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, October 18, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 10.14.2008
For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Probably no surprise to anyone that the Marin County housing market lost a little steam over the past week or two! Financial markets and people's emotions on a roller-coaster ride. But the Dow finished up for the week with the biggest weekly percentage gain (4.8%) in over five years.
Single Family Residences (SFR) overall now solidly in buyers' market territory at 17.43% in contract. Entry level market of under-$1million dollar homes still holding on to its value best overall at 24.1% in contract, or almost in balanced market territory. More expensive homes in general receiving less interest from buyers so currently a great opportunity. Buyers-- opportunities like this do not come around very often in Marin County. If you are interested in value, you will want to give this your attention now. 93 listings of homes over $3million, and only 5 of them in contract as of October 14. In the $2-3million dollar range, only 17 out of 118 listings in contract. Average list price of SFR listings $1,414,473 vs. $1,453,117 at this time last year. Average sold price $1,310,990 compared to $1,373,858 in '07 at the same time. During the 7 days from 10/8 to 10/14 there were 44 new SFR listings, 83 price reductions, 33 contingent, 24 pending, 30 sold, and15 expired. 28 listings were withdrawn or temporarily off the market. In spite of all the turmoil, 32 units sold during the week compared to the year-ago figure of 24, further closing the YTD units sold gap from -22% to -21.3%.
Condominiums off a bit but still holding up surprisingly well, with all under $1million still at above 30% in contract--sellers' market territory. True, they had been a "strong sellers" market in the week before, but we had mentioned that this was an oversimplification as buyers were still skittish and choosy. Still, 23 units sold during the week compared to 5 the previous year, enough more to close the YTD unit sales gap to within 8.9% of 2007's YTD figures. Average prices substantially lower than '07 though with average list price at $541,103 vs. 2007's $663,133, and average sold price just over $500,000 compared to the year-ago figure of $640,598. There were 19 new condo listings during the period from 10/8 to 10/14 as well as 17 price reductions, 10 contingent, 12 pending, 22 sold, 11 expired and 10 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
With bank liquidity on the upswing due to recent actions by the Federal Reserve, I look for mortgage interest rates to come back down from their recent jump.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Probably no surprise to anyone that the Marin County housing market lost a little steam over the past week or two! Financial markets and people's emotions on a roller-coaster ride. But the Dow finished up for the week with the biggest weekly percentage gain (4.8%) in over five years.
Single Family Residences (SFR) overall now solidly in buyers' market territory at 17.43% in contract. Entry level market of under-$1million dollar homes still holding on to its value best overall at 24.1% in contract, or almost in balanced market territory. More expensive homes in general receiving less interest from buyers so currently a great opportunity. Buyers-- opportunities like this do not come around very often in Marin County. If you are interested in value, you will want to give this your attention now. 93 listings of homes over $3million, and only 5 of them in contract as of October 14. In the $2-3million dollar range, only 17 out of 118 listings in contract. Average list price of SFR listings $1,414,473 vs. $1,453,117 at this time last year. Average sold price $1,310,990 compared to $1,373,858 in '07 at the same time. During the 7 days from 10/8 to 10/14 there were 44 new SFR listings, 83 price reductions, 33 contingent, 24 pending, 30 sold, and15 expired. 28 listings were withdrawn or temporarily off the market. In spite of all the turmoil, 32 units sold during the week compared to the year-ago figure of 24, further closing the YTD units sold gap from -22% to -21.3%.
Condominiums off a bit but still holding up surprisingly well, with all under $1million still at above 30% in contract--sellers' market territory. True, they had been a "strong sellers" market in the week before, but we had mentioned that this was an oversimplification as buyers were still skittish and choosy. Still, 23 units sold during the week compared to 5 the previous year, enough more to close the YTD unit sales gap to within 8.9% of 2007's YTD figures. Average prices substantially lower than '07 though with average list price at $541,103 vs. 2007's $663,133, and average sold price just over $500,000 compared to the year-ago figure of $640,598. There were 19 new condo listings during the period from 10/8 to 10/14 as well as 17 price reductions, 10 contingent, 12 pending, 22 sold, 11 expired and 10 withdrawn or temporarily off the market.
With bank liquidity on the upswing due to recent actions by the Federal Reserve, I look for mortgage interest rates to come back down from their recent jump.
More next week---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Friday, October 10, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 10.10.2008
For access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Roller Coaster ride continues! Still my belief that we will come out of this ok, but with so much volatility still going on it is probably best to see what happens over the course of the next few days and let the dust settle just a bit . Checks with local mortgage brokers reveal lenders still making deals, but at significantly higher rates than a week ago.
What's going on in the market:
Single Family Residences inventory down a just a few units from 1067 to 1061. Percentage in contract relatively stable for all price ranges, with only incremental changes. Overall at 19.23% in contract, a slight decrease from last week's 19.68%. Homes under $1million up just a hair from 24.9% to 25.3% in contract. During the month of September there were 299 new listings and 228 accepted offers, about 79.4%. As of October 7, 1282 single family homes had sold during the year compared to 1646 at the same time last year, or -22%, about the same figure we reported last week.
Condominium inventory down just a touch too at 364 vs. last week's 369, but percentage in contract moved up again, to 35.9% overall. The percentage in contract of condo's over $1million dropped but with only 17 units in the segment, this swing probably not tremendously significant.104 new condo listings during the month of September, and105 accepted offers, or 101%, the highest figure in at least the last 23 months. As of October 7, 364 units had sold year-to-date compared to 420 at the same time last year, or -13.3%, continued improvement from last week's -15%. Sellers can be encouraged about these statistics, but not cavalier. Still need to price, prepare, and market carefully, and be willing to negotiate with qualified buyers.
There will undoubtedly be more adverse financial news but it is important to understand that opportunities often come disguised as problems.
Rudyard Kipling probably said it best:
"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you; If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, but make allowance for their doubting too; . . . If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster And treat those two impostors just the same . . . Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”
more next week---until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Roller Coaster ride continues! Still my belief that we will come out of this ok, but with so much volatility still going on it is probably best to see what happens over the course of the next few days and let the dust settle just a bit . Checks with local mortgage brokers reveal lenders still making deals, but at significantly higher rates than a week ago.
What's going on in the market:
Single Family Residences inventory down a just a few units from 1067 to 1061. Percentage in contract relatively stable for all price ranges, with only incremental changes. Overall at 19.23% in contract, a slight decrease from last week's 19.68%. Homes under $1million up just a hair from 24.9% to 25.3% in contract. During the month of September there were 299 new listings and 228 accepted offers, about 79.4%. As of October 7, 1282 single family homes had sold during the year compared to 1646 at the same time last year, or -22%, about the same figure we reported last week.
Condominium inventory down just a touch too at 364 vs. last week's 369, but percentage in contract moved up again, to 35.9% overall. The percentage in contract of condo's over $1million dropped but with only 17 units in the segment, this swing probably not tremendously significant.104 new condo listings during the month of September, and105 accepted offers, or 101%, the highest figure in at least the last 23 months. As of October 7, 364 units had sold year-to-date compared to 420 at the same time last year, or -13.3%, continued improvement from last week's -15%. Sellers can be encouraged about these statistics, but not cavalier. Still need to price, prepare, and market carefully, and be willing to negotiate with qualified buyers.
There will undoubtedly be more adverse financial news but it is important to understand that opportunities often come disguised as problems.
Rudyard Kipling probably said it best:
"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you; If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, but make allowance for their doubting too; . . . If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster And treat those two impostors just the same . . . Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”
more next week---until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, October 4, 2008
The Anlyan Report. Marin Market Statistics 10.04.2008
for access to spreadsheets please see http://fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Another wild week!. Monday-economic stimulus package voted down-stock market plummets over 700 points. "Sweetened" version of package finally passes on Friday- Wall Street rallies on anticipation and sells on news. Many people breathe a sigh of relief while others complain our representatives in Congress have sold us out. People don't know what to think and even the "experts" differ in their opinions. Obviously this is not a great position to be in, but my opinion is things would be much worse without the government "bailout". It will take us a while to work our way out of this, but we will. It is to be hoped that better regulations will be instituted to prevent a future replay. Important to remember that the $700 billion will actually buy some assets that will ultimately lead to revenue and even appreciation in some cases, so we are not necessarily pouring all these $ down the proverbial drain.
Short version of the story is that people feel uncertain. Many have re-evaluated their plans. Some wonder if they will have a job after all this is over. A number of stories around the County from agents who had buyers back out of transactions at the last minute---some even forfeiting substantial deposit $. A number of investors think differently and are welcoming this unusual situation as the best buying opportunity since the early 90's. People who buy now will probably do very well over the next 5-7 years. A quick check with local mortgage brokers revealed that money is still available for well qualified buyers however excellent credit, full documention, and substantial deposits are the rule.
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows only Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Novato increased percentage of listings in contract last month. All other cities and towns figures headed south. Only San Rafael and Novato still in sellers' market territory. San Rafael experiencing a slight drop but hanging in there at 26.5% in contract. Novato actually increased to 33.2% while combined condo and SFR inventory there declined from 415 to 343 units since the previous week.
Inventory actually down across the board. All price ranges of Single Family Homes now in buyers' or strong buyers' market territory with homes under $1million just missing "balanced" market status at 24.9% in contract. Despite this, total YTD homes sold coasted to another increase with 46 units sold in the week vs. 24 in the same week last year. Now at -22% vs. -24% last week on a year-to-year comparison.
Condo sales continue their recent success story, with 34.7% of all condo's in escrow--a slight drop from last week but still a very encouraging number. Condo's still closing the YTD sales gap with 19 units sold during the week vs. only 7 the year before. Now at -15% on a YTD basis vs. last weeks figure of -18% compared to the same time in 2007.
Where do we go from here? More will be revealed.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Another wild week!. Monday-economic stimulus package voted down-stock market plummets over 700 points. "Sweetened" version of package finally passes on Friday- Wall Street rallies on anticipation and sells on news. Many people breathe a sigh of relief while others complain our representatives in Congress have sold us out. People don't know what to think and even the "experts" differ in their opinions. Obviously this is not a great position to be in, but my opinion is things would be much worse without the government "bailout". It will take us a while to work our way out of this, but we will. It is to be hoped that better regulations will be instituted to prevent a future replay. Important to remember that the $700 billion will actually buy some assets that will ultimately lead to revenue and even appreciation in some cases, so we are not necessarily pouring all these $ down the proverbial drain.
Short version of the story is that people feel uncertain. Many have re-evaluated their plans. Some wonder if they will have a job after all this is over. A number of stories around the County from agents who had buyers back out of transactions at the last minute---some even forfeiting substantial deposit $. A number of investors think differently and are welcoming this unusual situation as the best buying opportunity since the early 90's. People who buy now will probably do very well over the next 5-7 years. A quick check with local mortgage brokers revealed that money is still available for well qualified buyers however excellent credit, full documention, and substantial deposits are the rule.
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows only Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Novato increased percentage of listings in contract last month. All other cities and towns figures headed south. Only San Rafael and Novato still in sellers' market territory. San Rafael experiencing a slight drop but hanging in there at 26.5% in contract. Novato actually increased to 33.2% while combined condo and SFR inventory there declined from 415 to 343 units since the previous week.
Inventory actually down across the board. All price ranges of Single Family Homes now in buyers' or strong buyers' market territory with homes under $1million just missing "balanced" market status at 24.9% in contract. Despite this, total YTD homes sold coasted to another increase with 46 units sold in the week vs. 24 in the same week last year. Now at -22% vs. -24% last week on a year-to-year comparison.
Condo sales continue their recent success story, with 34.7% of all condo's in escrow--a slight drop from last week but still a very encouraging number. Condo's still closing the YTD sales gap with 19 units sold during the week vs. only 7 the year before. Now at -15% on a YTD basis vs. last weeks figure of -18% compared to the same time in 2007.
Where do we go from here? More will be revealed.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
