Hello Everyone,
DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service, in an article dated January 20, featured the headline
Bay Area Housing Ends Year With Many Looking but Not Buying
(full text available at) http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110120.aspx
This wasn't exactly true in Marin County as there were a combined total of 195 SFR's and Condo's sold here during the month of December. While this represented about 14% fewer home sales than the comparable period in 2009, Days on Market (DOM) actually dropped a couple of days (from 118 to 116) and a number of local REALTORS closed out the year with a welcome but unexpected flurry of last minute sales. Now that the Holidays have ended and the New Year has arrived, we have begun to see more homes added to the available inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condo's. Some of these are fresh listings and some are "recycled" listings that were taken off the market at the end of 2010 and are now coming back on after a 30 day or more "rest" with the DOM counter reset to zero. As we approach the late winter and spring selling seasons, we normally expect the local housing inventory to continue to increase. This should be a welcome event for many frustrated wannabee home buyers who have been looking and looking but not finding and who are unwilling to "settle" for something that really doesn't meet their needs. While it is still too soon to tell what kind of market we will have this year, many local agents are optimistic and looking forward to at least a modest improvement in home sales for 2011.
Here's what we have seen so far:
Single Family Residence (SFR)
Overall inventory increased from 740 on January 6 to 770 on January 19 and percentage in contract increased from 27.8% to 29.8%. Homes under $1 million did even better with an increase from33.96% in contract to 36.49% while number of listed homes in that price range increased from 480 to 496. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range relatively stable at 21.38% in contract while listed units did increase by 11, to 159. Upper-end homes doing somewhat better than previously, with 9 of 44 listed units in contract as of Jan 19, or 20.45%. This compares to 17.39% at last report. Homes over $3 million also enjoying greater sales activity, with 6 of 71 homes on the market in contract (8.45% compared to 4.55% on January 6). YTD sales of SFR's as of January 19 were 38 units, compared to 51 in 2010, or down 25%, and DOM for homes sold during that period were 112, compared to the year-ago figure of 97. Average sold price at $885,616 compared to $1,233,119 in the same period a year ago. This appears to be an inauspicious start to the year but the number of sales is still very low so a "market mix" of lower-priced or less desirable homes can have an unbalancing effect on early-in-the-year statistics. In addition, we will have to remember during the first half of this year that we are comparing to 2010's skewed 1st and 2nd quarter sales resulting from the homebuyer tax credits.
Condo's
Overall inventory increased from 266 on January 6 to 271 on January 19, but the number of units in contract remained static at 94, pulling the percentage in contract down slightly from 35.34% to 34.69%. There was only one condo over $1million in contract of the 10 units on the market on January 19, or 10%, matching the level on January 6 when we last reported. YTD sales of condo's as of January 19 were 16 units, compared to 20 in 2010, or down 20%, and DOM for condo's sold during that period were 126, compared to the year-ago figure of 114. Average sold price at $321,006 compared to $334,841 in the same period a year ago. Please see remarks above under SFR's regarding these statistics which one would hope are not a harbinger of the year ahead!
Stay tuned for new developments as the year rolls out ahead of us.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Sunday, January 9, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 01.09.11
Hello Everyone,
A December 16 article by MDA DataQuick, a San Diego-based real estate news service, quoted their president,John Walsh, who, predicting recovery, but hedging his bets on timing, said:
“The thing is, demand is accumulating. And at some point the market will kick back into gear. It’s possible that prices have bottomed out, and it seems likely that today’s interest rates won’t be around a year from now. There will be catch-up activity, but the big question is timing. We’ll have to see what happens with employment, the economy, and with today’s tight credit,” (See full text at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101216.aspx )
Here in Marin County the market is mixed, with some areas doing much better than others. Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows Greenbrae, which topped the charts last month at 46.15% in contract has extended its lead to an astonishing 60.87% in contract, representing 14 of 23 homes on the market in that area. Nothing else in the County even comes close. Novato in 2nd place at 39.76%, down just slightly from last month, a very popular market with lots of attractively priced homes as a result of REO's and short sales. Ross next at 33%, followed by San Anselmo at 29.8%. Belvedere, with its high-end homes still at the bottom of the sales heap with only 7.4% of listed homes in contract-- a fertile hunting ground for value-minded high-end home hunters.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
2010 ended with a total of 1836 sold SFR units in the County, compared to 1668 for the year 2009, hanging on to a year-over-year gain of just over 10% despite a constant erosion since last summer after the end of the buyer tax credits. Active inventory at 622 units, and months supply of inventory at 4.1 as of December 31. New listings in December were down to 110, all figures the lowest in over 24 months. There were 212 accepted offers on SFR's in December, bringing the ratio of accepted offers to existing inventory to 34.1%, and accepted offers to new listings to 192.7%, all three representing the greatest numbers in over 24 months. SFR percentage in contract down slightly overall from 28.17% to 27.14%, with the under-$1million segment down about 1.25 percentage points and the $1million to $2million segment down about 3 percentage points. Big news, though, is that the $2million-$3million segment up substantially from 7.25% in contract at the beginning of December to 17.39% on January 6. This due more to the decrease in listed homes from 69 units to 46 than to the increase of homes in contract from 5 to 8 units. Sold SFR units for December at 151. This compares to 180 in December of 2009 and only 91 in December of 2008. Inventory down, accepted offers up, months supply of inventory down.
Condo statistics reveal a similar story with months supply of inventory at 5.4, the lowest since December of '09 when it stood at 5.2. Since then, it has been as high at 10.6 (in July). The ratio of accepted offers to inventory for December was 32.8%, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings 178.4%, both the highest in over 24 months. Active inventory at 201 condo units on Dec 31. This compares to 251 in December of '09 and 272 in '08. Number of condo units sold at the end of 2010 was 477, about 5.9% less than the 505 units sold in 2009.
A number of real estate agents in the County were unusually busy during the traditionally sleepy period between Thanksgiving and the end of the year. What this means is not clear at this time. Lots of discussion and conjecture among even experienced agents, but the truth is it will probably be about 6 weeks before a trend is established and we get a better idea of how 2011 may look for real estate. As in previous recoveries, we will probably not recognize the market bottom until after we have passed it and prices are on the way up. One thing we do know is that there are plenty of good real estate bargains out there right now. Picking a market bottom is extremely difficult and those who accomplish it often owe it to luck more than to skill. For the rest of us it may just be that waiting for a better deal later could deprive us of a very good deal now.
More later. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http/www.fredanlyan.com
A December 16 article by MDA DataQuick, a San Diego-based real estate news service, quoted their president,John Walsh, who, predicting recovery, but hedging his bets on timing, said:
“The thing is, demand is accumulating. And at some point the market will kick back into gear. It’s possible that prices have bottomed out, and it seems likely that today’s interest rates won’t be around a year from now. There will be catch-up activity, but the big question is timing. We’ll have to see what happens with employment, the economy, and with today’s tight credit,” (See full text at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101216.aspx )
Here in Marin County the market is mixed, with some areas doing much better than others. Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows Greenbrae, which topped the charts last month at 46.15% in contract has extended its lead to an astonishing 60.87% in contract, representing 14 of 23 homes on the market in that area. Nothing else in the County even comes close. Novato in 2nd place at 39.76%, down just slightly from last month, a very popular market with lots of attractively priced homes as a result of REO's and short sales. Ross next at 33%, followed by San Anselmo at 29.8%. Belvedere, with its high-end homes still at the bottom of the sales heap with only 7.4% of listed homes in contract-- a fertile hunting ground for value-minded high-end home hunters.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
2010 ended with a total of 1836 sold SFR units in the County, compared to 1668 for the year 2009, hanging on to a year-over-year gain of just over 10% despite a constant erosion since last summer after the end of the buyer tax credits. Active inventory at 622 units, and months supply of inventory at 4.1 as of December 31. New listings in December were down to 110, all figures the lowest in over 24 months. There were 212 accepted offers on SFR's in December, bringing the ratio of accepted offers to existing inventory to 34.1%, and accepted offers to new listings to 192.7%, all three representing the greatest numbers in over 24 months. SFR percentage in contract down slightly overall from 28.17% to 27.14%, with the under-$1million segment down about 1.25 percentage points and the $1million to $2million segment down about 3 percentage points. Big news, though, is that the $2million-$3million segment up substantially from 7.25% in contract at the beginning of December to 17.39% on January 6. This due more to the decrease in listed homes from 69 units to 46 than to the increase of homes in contract from 5 to 8 units. Sold SFR units for December at 151. This compares to 180 in December of 2009 and only 91 in December of 2008. Inventory down, accepted offers up, months supply of inventory down.
Condo statistics reveal a similar story with months supply of inventory at 5.4, the lowest since December of '09 when it stood at 5.2. Since then, it has been as high at 10.6 (in July). The ratio of accepted offers to inventory for December was 32.8%, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings 178.4%, both the highest in over 24 months. Active inventory at 201 condo units on Dec 31. This compares to 251 in December of '09 and 272 in '08. Number of condo units sold at the end of 2010 was 477, about 5.9% less than the 505 units sold in 2009.
A number of real estate agents in the County were unusually busy during the traditionally sleepy period between Thanksgiving and the end of the year. What this means is not clear at this time. Lots of discussion and conjecture among even experienced agents, but the truth is it will probably be about 6 weeks before a trend is established and we get a better idea of how 2011 may look for real estate. As in previous recoveries, we will probably not recognize the market bottom until after we have passed it and prices are on the way up. One thing we do know is that there are plenty of good real estate bargains out there right now. Picking a market bottom is extremely difficult and those who accomplish it often owe it to luck more than to skill. For the rest of us it may just be that waiting for a better deal later could deprive us of a very good deal now.
More later. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http/www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, December 13, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 12.12.10
Hello Everyone,
Going into the Holiday Season, the Marin County real estate market has definitely not settled down for a long winter's nap-- at least not yet.
November month-end statistics from Coldwell Banker MarketQuest (MQ)* show both single family and condo activity smoked recent averagees with inventory down and new sales contracts up!
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Inventory down to 845 (MQ)* units from 1,111 in October. This compares to 1,000 in Nov of 2009, and 980 in 2008. There were 214 accepted offers on SFR's this November, compared to 154 in Nov of '09 and only 89 in the same period in '08. November's accepted offers as a percentage of total SFR inventory were 25.3%, compared to 17.5% in October, 15.4% in Nov of 2009, and just 9.1% in Nov. of '08. Months supply of inventory down to 5.8 from 7.5 in October. YTD SFR sales continue to lead '09's but the pace continues to lag with 1708 units sold by 12/7 compared to the year-ago figure of 1530. This represents an increase of 11.6%, but two weeks ago, it was up 13%. As we have mentioned, this deceleration has been going on for several months now since the homebuyer tax credits expired. The good news is that with the recent encouraging sales activity, it appears that we will hold on to finish the year on the "plus" side. Properties under $1million still selling well, with 35.25% of SFR's listed on the Marin MLS in contract as of 12/7. Upper end of the market dropped back again in November with only 7.25% of properties listed at $2-$3million and 3.66% of those over $3million in contract on December 7.
Condo's
Condo inventory also down at 254 (MQ)* vs. 309 at the end of October. Compares to 281 in Nov. '09 and 306 in '08. November brought 72 accepted condo offers, 20 more than in Nov. '09 and25 above '08. Accepted offers as a percentage of inventory were 25.3, up from October's 17.5%, easily beating the Nov. '09 figure of 15.4% and Nov '08's 9.1%. Months supply of inventory dropped to 5.8 from this October's 7.5.
With numbers like this, it seems fairly clear that something is going on. The attached monthly City-by-City Report (Marin MLS)* reveals where most of the action is. Greenbrae continues to lead the pack, with 12 of 26 (46.5%) of listed properties in contract as of 11/30. Next in line is Novato, with 40.45% (125 of 309 listed properties), a very nice increase from October's 36.6%. San Rafael showing encouraging activity with an increase to 31.09% (97 of 312 listed properties) from October's 24.6%. Belvedere still stuck in last place with a drop to 10.26% from last report's 15.56%. 12/7's YTD condo sales figure of 444 units down 5.9% from last year's level of 472 at the same time. 27.5% of condo's under $1million in contract on 12/7 compared to October's 33.02%, but sales activity up (MQ) with 45 units sold in November compared to 31 in October, more or less on par with 09's November figure of 45 and '08's 47 units.
Please take a look at the relatively recent Market Action Reports for both Condo's and SFR's. I think you will find them useful and informative.
This will be the last report until the beginning of the New Year.
Until then, best wishes to one and all for an enjoyable and safe Holiday Season and a prosperous, happy, healthy, and successful the New Year.
Fred
* Percentage in contract and other figures are often inconsistent between Market Quest and MLS due to differences in the way the two systems count active listings
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fred Anlyan, MBA
Broker Associate
Previews Property Specialist
Direct: (415) 464-3509
Fax: (415) 925-0962
Email: fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com
Website: Visit My Website for access to spreadsheets
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Going into the Holiday Season, the Marin County real estate market has definitely not settled down for a long winter's nap-- at least not yet.
November month-end statistics from Coldwell Banker MarketQuest (MQ)* show both single family and condo activity smoked recent averagees with inventory down and new sales contracts up!
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Inventory down to 845 (MQ)* units from 1,111 in October. This compares to 1,000 in Nov of 2009, and 980 in 2008. There were 214 accepted offers on SFR's this November, compared to 154 in Nov of '09 and only 89 in the same period in '08. November's accepted offers as a percentage of total SFR inventory were 25.3%, compared to 17.5% in October, 15.4% in Nov of 2009, and just 9.1% in Nov. of '08. Months supply of inventory down to 5.8 from 7.5 in October. YTD SFR sales continue to lead '09's but the pace continues to lag with 1708 units sold by 12/7 compared to the year-ago figure of 1530. This represents an increase of 11.6%, but two weeks ago, it was up 13%. As we have mentioned, this deceleration has been going on for several months now since the homebuyer tax credits expired. The good news is that with the recent encouraging sales activity, it appears that we will hold on to finish the year on the "plus" side. Properties under $1million still selling well, with 35.25% of SFR's listed on the Marin MLS in contract as of 12/7. Upper end of the market dropped back again in November with only 7.25% of properties listed at $2-$3million and 3.66% of those over $3million in contract on December 7.
Condo's
Condo inventory also down at 254 (MQ)* vs. 309 at the end of October. Compares to 281 in Nov. '09 and 306 in '08. November brought 72 accepted condo offers, 20 more than in Nov. '09 and25 above '08. Accepted offers as a percentage of inventory were 25.3, up from October's 17.5%, easily beating the Nov. '09 figure of 15.4% and Nov '08's 9.1%. Months supply of inventory dropped to 5.8 from this October's 7.5.
With numbers like this, it seems fairly clear that something is going on. The attached monthly City-by-City Report (Marin MLS)* reveals where most of the action is. Greenbrae continues to lead the pack, with 12 of 26 (46.5%) of listed properties in contract as of 11/30. Next in line is Novato, with 40.45% (125 of 309 listed properties), a very nice increase from October's 36.6%. San Rafael showing encouraging activity with an increase to 31.09% (97 of 312 listed properties) from October's 24.6%. Belvedere still stuck in last place with a drop to 10.26% from last report's 15.56%. 12/7's YTD condo sales figure of 444 units down 5.9% from last year's level of 472 at the same time. 27.5% of condo's under $1million in contract on 12/7 compared to October's 33.02%, but sales activity up (MQ) with 45 units sold in November compared to 31 in October, more or less on par with 09's November figure of 45 and '08's 47 units.
Please take a look at the relatively recent Market Action Reports for both Condo's and SFR's. I think you will find them useful and informative.
This will be the last report until the beginning of the New Year.
Until then, best wishes to one and all for an enjoyable and safe Holiday Season and a prosperous, happy, healthy, and successful the New Year.
Fred
* Percentage in contract and other figures are often inconsistent between Market Quest and MLS due to differences in the way the two systems count active listings
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fred Anlyan, MBA
Broker Associate
Previews Property Specialist
Direct: (415) 464-3509
Fax: (415) 925-0962
Email: fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com
Website: Visit My Website for access to spreadsheets
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, November 14, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 11.14.10
Hello Everyone,
Rumors filtering out from San Francisco indicate the commercial real estate market there may be starting to recover. Agent reports of increased office leasing activity in the last 6 weeks may be a hopeful sign indicating confidence and willingness to take risks returning on the part of businesses, investors, etc. If so, this should eventually spill over and assist with re-igniting other parts of the local economy. Respected analysts still split over whether there will be a significant economic recovery in the coming year or we will be forced to wait until 2012 and beyond. A number of voices on both sides, with some predicting further declines and others predicting stabilization and recovery in the coming months.
Activity here in Marin County remains stable, with inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) declining 71 units since last report, and Condo inventory off 3 units.
As of November 8, there were 1152 Single Family Residences listed for sale on the Marin County MLS, and 298 of those were in contract. Percentage in contract up slightly in all price segments except for the $1million to $1.99 million range, where it was off half a percentage point, or essentially unchanged. The key “entry-level” under-one million segment up from 30.96% to 31.64%, while the over-$3million segment increased from 7.84% to 9% on the strength of a 2 unit decline in inventory and a 1 unit increase in listings in contract. Small numbers like that provide evidence too thin to make market generalizations, but the good news is that some of those upper-end properties are continuing to move!
Average SFR list price in the County for YTD sold properties was $!,084,122 as of November 8, and The average sale price was $1,033,768. This compares to the year-ago figures of $1,051,107 list and $998,862 sold. Days on market this year at 92, a slight improvement over the 97 day figure at this time last year. Continuing to be troubling, the YTD units-sold figure decelerated again and is now up 15.3% for the year, compared to 18% at last report. With about a month and a half remaining in the year, it looks as though we may end up just about even or perhaps only slightly ahead of last year’s unit sales numbers. That would seem to confirm what a lot of folks have been saying about the federal tax stimulus program only pushing sales into the first part of the year.
Condominium listings on the Marin MLS were 348 on November 8. 114 of those, or 32.76% were in contract. This remains virtually unchanged from last report’s 33.05%. Of the 348 units, only 19 were priced over $1million, and of those, only 2 units were in contract, surprisingly both in the $2million-$2.99 million price range. The $1million to $1.99 million price segment had 17 active listings and none of those were in contract. Condo prices up slightly over this time last year, with YTD sold unit average list price at $417,078 and average sold price at $404,755. This compares to $387,599 and $374,610 at the same time last year. Days on the market for sold units to November 8 are 113 this year vs. 102 last year at this time. Total YTD condo units sold as of November 8 were 404 compared to the 2009 figure of 424 on the same date. The 20 unit decrease represents a decline of approximately 4.7%.
Where is this market headed? Business school professors are fond of saying that good market information results in efficient markets and that the better the information, the more efficient the market. While we have plenty of information, we have very little in the way of agreement about what it means. One thing is sure. Eventually the real estate market will recover. Those who bought near the bottom will be the envy of those who waited what will have turned out to be too long.. So the question becomes not “are we at the bottom of this market”, but “are we near the bottom”, or “are we still on the way down or are we on the way back up”?? There will be people who take action based on their best understanding of the information available, and if the past is any indication, some of them will do very well indeed!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Rumors filtering out from San Francisco indicate the commercial real estate market there may be starting to recover. Agent reports of increased office leasing activity in the last 6 weeks may be a hopeful sign indicating confidence and willingness to take risks returning on the part of businesses, investors, etc. If so, this should eventually spill over and assist with re-igniting other parts of the local economy. Respected analysts still split over whether there will be a significant economic recovery in the coming year or we will be forced to wait until 2012 and beyond. A number of voices on both sides, with some predicting further declines and others predicting stabilization and recovery in the coming months.
Activity here in Marin County remains stable, with inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) declining 71 units since last report, and Condo inventory off 3 units.
As of November 8, there were 1152 Single Family Residences listed for sale on the Marin County MLS, and 298 of those were in contract. Percentage in contract up slightly in all price segments except for the $1million to $1.99 million range, where it was off half a percentage point, or essentially unchanged. The key “entry-level” under-one million segment up from 30.96% to 31.64%, while the over-$3million segment increased from 7.84% to 9% on the strength of a 2 unit decline in inventory and a 1 unit increase in listings in contract. Small numbers like that provide evidence too thin to make market generalizations, but the good news is that some of those upper-end properties are continuing to move!
Average SFR list price in the County for YTD sold properties was $!,084,122 as of November 8, and The average sale price was $1,033,768. This compares to the year-ago figures of $1,051,107 list and $998,862 sold. Days on market this year at 92, a slight improvement over the 97 day figure at this time last year. Continuing to be troubling, the YTD units-sold figure decelerated again and is now up 15.3% for the year, compared to 18% at last report. With about a month and a half remaining in the year, it looks as though we may end up just about even or perhaps only slightly ahead of last year’s unit sales numbers. That would seem to confirm what a lot of folks have been saying about the federal tax stimulus program only pushing sales into the first part of the year.
Condominium listings on the Marin MLS were 348 on November 8. 114 of those, or 32.76% were in contract. This remains virtually unchanged from last report’s 33.05%. Of the 348 units, only 19 were priced over $1million, and of those, only 2 units were in contract, surprisingly both in the $2million-$2.99 million price range. The $1million to $1.99 million price segment had 17 active listings and none of those were in contract. Condo prices up slightly over this time last year, with YTD sold unit average list price at $417,078 and average sold price at $404,755. This compares to $387,599 and $374,610 at the same time last year. Days on the market for sold units to November 8 are 113 this year vs. 102 last year at this time. Total YTD condo units sold as of November 8 were 404 compared to the 2009 figure of 424 on the same date. The 20 unit decrease represents a decline of approximately 4.7%.
Where is this market headed? Business school professors are fond of saying that good market information results in efficient markets and that the better the information, the more efficient the market. While we have plenty of information, we have very little in the way of agreement about what it means. One thing is sure. Eventually the real estate market will recover. Those who bought near the bottom will be the envy of those who waited what will have turned out to be too long.. So the question becomes not “are we at the bottom of this market”, but “are we near the bottom”, or “are we still on the way down or are we on the way back up”?? There will be people who take action based on their best understanding of the information available, and if the past is any indication, some of them will do very well indeed!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, November 1, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 11.1.10
Hello Everyone,
Stock market continues strong, with traders anticipating more federal intervention to stimulate the economy.
Marin County percentage of homes in contract for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condos up at every price point. Active inventory of both SFR's and Condo's down 10% or more from October levels of the last two years. October's accepted offers up up up over year-ago and two-year-ago levels for both condo's and SFR's. Monthly City--by-City Report shows 10 of 13 cities and towns covered increased their percentage in contract in October while only 3 (Tiburon, Corte Madera, and Larkspur) experienced a decrease. At the same time, units sold are down down down for October from levels of the last two years.
People are confused about the market. Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, afraid to buy now in case prices go lower later. Many sellers are reluctant to sell now, holding on, and hoping that prices may be higher next year. No one knows for sure but everyone seems to have an opinion---
In an article dated October 21, San Diego based MDA Data Quick, a real estate news service, noted the continuing downward trend in the Bay Area housing market, stating, in part:
"Bay Area home sales fell year-over-year for the fourth consecutive month in September, dropping 27 percent below average, as historically-low mortgage rates failed to nudge many would-be buyers off the sidelines---"
"Last month’s sales were the lowest for any September since 2007, when 5,014 homes sold, and were the second-lowest since September 1991, when 5,735 sold. September sales fell 26.7 percent below the average September sales tally of 8,641 since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. September sales have ranged from a low of 5,735 in 1991 to a high of 13,343 in 2003."
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president was quoted as saying “The sidelines are getting awfully crowded in this housing game. They’re lined with people who have the ability to buy now but are waiting for the right moment, and with people who have the means but lack job confidence. Then you have all of the folks who don’t have the equity, don’t have a job or can’t qualify for the larger, so-called jumbo mortgages that were once so common in the Bay Area,” “Sales have been so low for so long – 27 percent below average last month – that significant pent-up demand is accumulating. When it will be released will depend largely on when the economy rebounds more convincingly, spurring more jobs and higher consumer confidence. If, in the meantime, prices fall more and interest rates stay the same or edge lower, then it’s easy to imagine a burst of sales activity at some point. Next spring could be very interesting.”
Read the full text of the article at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101021.aspx
In an Associated Press article dated 10/26/2010, Columnist Alan Zibel stated:
"The foreclosure problem is far from over. A "shadow inventory" of homes on the verge of foreclosure is bound to force prices lower well into next year. About 2 million loans are in foreclosure, and another 2.4 million borrowers have missed at least 90 days of mortgage payments, according to LPS Applied Analytics.
"It's like a never-ending supply" of homes, said Daniel Alpert, managing partner at the New York investment bank Westwood Capital. He expects prices to fall another 10 percent over the next year — and not improve much after that.
Full text of article available at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39845654/ns/business-real_estate/
Writing for cnn.money.com, staff analyst Les Christie, in a November 1 article, wrote:
"The good news is, 'There'll be no vicious, self-reinforcing spiral down,' according to Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Analytics.
But, he added, 'more home price declines are coming'. He's forecasting another 8% drop in home prices through the third quarter of 2011, which will put the total peak-to-trough decline at 34%."
Read the text of that article at:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/01/real_estate/housing_market_state/index.htm
Of course, some of these articles are written about the nation-wide real estate picture. Even the local article describes the current market throughout the entire Bay Area and if we know one thing, it is that real estate is local. We cannot completely escape national trends and global economic effects, but we do have a unique market here in Marin County. Having said that, it is important to recognize that the houses that are selling here are competitively priced. Even in areas with a percentage in contract that traditionally signifies a sellers' market, sellers cannot afford to ignore buyers' price sensitivity. Houses priced right are selling while those priced higher are sitting. Buyers are doing their homework. They are patient and they are picky. Even in multiple-offer situations, properties often not going much over list price. There are some multiple- offer deals that don't even make it all the way to list price and are going out at discounts. Lots of escrows falling through when buyers and sellers can't agree---- or buyers change their minds during the contingency period. Banks being really tough on appraisals so even if a prospective buyer agrees to an over-optimistic price, an altitude-adjusting moment arrives when the appraisal comes back lower than the contract price, leaving the buyer with a choice of re-negotiating, getting out of contract, or making up the difference with an increased down payment.
If past cycles are any indication, we are somewhere near the bottom of this one and prices will be going up. Only time will tell where this market is headed and how quickly, but today's Buyers have a tremendous opportunity to purchase properties that they could only have dreamed of of owning just two years ago.
More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Stock market continues strong, with traders anticipating more federal intervention to stimulate the economy.
Marin County percentage of homes in contract for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condos up at every price point. Active inventory of both SFR's and Condo's down 10% or more from October levels of the last two years. October's accepted offers up up up over year-ago and two-year-ago levels for both condo's and SFR's. Monthly City--by-City Report shows 10 of 13 cities and towns covered increased their percentage in contract in October while only 3 (Tiburon, Corte Madera, and Larkspur) experienced a decrease. At the same time, units sold are down down down for October from levels of the last two years.
People are confused about the market. Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, afraid to buy now in case prices go lower later. Many sellers are reluctant to sell now, holding on, and hoping that prices may be higher next year. No one knows for sure but everyone seems to have an opinion---
In an article dated October 21, San Diego based MDA Data Quick, a real estate news service, noted the continuing downward trend in the Bay Area housing market, stating, in part:
"Bay Area home sales fell year-over-year for the fourth consecutive month in September, dropping 27 percent below average, as historically-low mortgage rates failed to nudge many would-be buyers off the sidelines---"
"Last month’s sales were the lowest for any September since 2007, when 5,014 homes sold, and were the second-lowest since September 1991, when 5,735 sold. September sales fell 26.7 percent below the average September sales tally of 8,641 since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. September sales have ranged from a low of 5,735 in 1991 to a high of 13,343 in 2003."
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president was quoted as saying “The sidelines are getting awfully crowded in this housing game. They’re lined with people who have the ability to buy now but are waiting for the right moment, and with people who have the means but lack job confidence. Then you have all of the folks who don’t have the equity, don’t have a job or can’t qualify for the larger, so-called jumbo mortgages that were once so common in the Bay Area,” “Sales have been so low for so long – 27 percent below average last month – that significant pent-up demand is accumulating. When it will be released will depend largely on when the economy rebounds more convincingly, spurring more jobs and higher consumer confidence. If, in the meantime, prices fall more and interest rates stay the same or edge lower, then it’s easy to imagine a burst of sales activity at some point. Next spring could be very interesting.”
Read the full text of the article at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101021.aspx
In an Associated Press article dated 10/26/2010, Columnist Alan Zibel stated:
"The foreclosure problem is far from over. A "shadow inventory" of homes on the verge of foreclosure is bound to force prices lower well into next year. About 2 million loans are in foreclosure, and another 2.4 million borrowers have missed at least 90 days of mortgage payments, according to LPS Applied Analytics.
"It's like a never-ending supply" of homes, said Daniel Alpert, managing partner at the New York investment bank Westwood Capital. He expects prices to fall another 10 percent over the next year — and not improve much after that.
Full text of article available at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39845654/ns/business-real_estate/
Writing for cnn.money.com, staff analyst Les Christie, in a November 1 article, wrote:
"The good news is, 'There'll be no vicious, self-reinforcing spiral down,' according to Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Analytics.
But, he added, 'more home price declines are coming'. He's forecasting another 8% drop in home prices through the third quarter of 2011, which will put the total peak-to-trough decline at 34%."
Read the text of that article at:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/01/real_estate/housing_market_state/index.htm
Of course, some of these articles are written about the nation-wide real estate picture. Even the local article describes the current market throughout the entire Bay Area and if we know one thing, it is that real estate is local. We cannot completely escape national trends and global economic effects, but we do have a unique market here in Marin County. Having said that, it is important to recognize that the houses that are selling here are competitively priced. Even in areas with a percentage in contract that traditionally signifies a sellers' market, sellers cannot afford to ignore buyers' price sensitivity. Houses priced right are selling while those priced higher are sitting. Buyers are doing their homework. They are patient and they are picky. Even in multiple-offer situations, properties often not going much over list price. There are some multiple- offer deals that don't even make it all the way to list price and are going out at discounts. Lots of escrows falling through when buyers and sellers can't agree---- or buyers change their minds during the contingency period. Banks being really tough on appraisals so even if a prospective buyer agrees to an over-optimistic price, an altitude-adjusting moment arrives when the appraisal comes back lower than the contract price, leaving the buyer with a choice of re-negotiating, getting out of contract, or making up the difference with an increased down payment.
If past cycles are any indication, we are somewhere near the bottom of this one and prices will be going up. Only time will tell where this market is headed and how quickly, but today's Buyers have a tremendous opportunity to purchase properties that they could only have dreamed of of owning just two years ago.
More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, October 18, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 10.17.10
Hello Everyone,
In spite of a loss on Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week above 11,000, largely based on speculation the the Fed will step in soon with a major injection of cash in the form of asset purchases, possibly as much as $500 billion.
Local Marin real estate market a bit sluggish for the period, with buyers wary and many sellers unwilling to list their homes at or near prevailing market prices.
Inventory of Marin County single family residences (SFR) actually went down 35 units to 1265 since our last report. YTD units sold still ahead of the same date last year. 1429 SFR's sold as of 10/12 compared to 1194 at the same time in '09, or up 19.7%. This roughly the same as we saw on October 2, representing a pause from several months of steady erosion since the buyer tax credits ended last spring. Overall percentage in contract was up slightly, from 23.17 to 24.58%, tantalizingly close to the "magic" number of 25% that signals a "balanced" market. Homes under $1million also up at 30.47% in contract vs. 29.63% at last report. Upper price segments, $1-2 million and $2-3 million up slightly as well, bucking the recent trend. Homes over 3 million still stubbornly stuck, with only 7.41% in contract compared to 8.7% at last report. That equates to only 8 homes in contract our of 108 currently listed on the Marin county MLS for that price range. Forward-thinking buyers who are well qualified or have cash can pick up tremendous bargains on these upper-end propertied. Like everything else, this situation will eventually change- but for the moment, many luxury homes in Marin County could be called "The Deal of the Century"!
Condo inventory relatively stable, at 364 units on October 13 vs. 362 on October 2. YTD unit sales slipped below the same date last year at 370 on October 12 compared to the year-ago figure of 378, or down 2%. Percentage in contract down slightly from 31.2 to 30.4%. Average YTD sold price of $402,306 on October 12 up from last year at the same time when it was $373,175. This is not necessarily all attributable to price appreciation as much depends on the specific mix of units being sold. Days on Market at 111 vs. 103 last year at the same time.
Pricing a critical element in the curent Marin County real estate market. Smart, successful sellers and their agents search current comparable sales and set prices accordingly. Then they prepare the property carefully and present it in the best possible light, with appropriate marketing. They are prepared to negotiate, and they know that no amount of marketing will sell an overpriced listing in the current environment. Buyers spend a lot of time on Trulia, Redfin, Zillow, and other sites. They have done their homework and they know values. Sellers benefit from the assistance of professional local REALTORS who know neighborhood values.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
In spite of a loss on Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week above 11,000, largely based on speculation the the Fed will step in soon with a major injection of cash in the form of asset purchases, possibly as much as $500 billion.
Local Marin real estate market a bit sluggish for the period, with buyers wary and many sellers unwilling to list their homes at or near prevailing market prices.
Inventory of Marin County single family residences (SFR) actually went down 35 units to 1265 since our last report. YTD units sold still ahead of the same date last year. 1429 SFR's sold as of 10/12 compared to 1194 at the same time in '09, or up 19.7%. This roughly the same as we saw on October 2, representing a pause from several months of steady erosion since the buyer tax credits ended last spring. Overall percentage in contract was up slightly, from 23.17 to 24.58%, tantalizingly close to the "magic" number of 25% that signals a "balanced" market. Homes under $1million also up at 30.47% in contract vs. 29.63% at last report. Upper price segments, $1-2 million and $2-3 million up slightly as well, bucking the recent trend. Homes over 3 million still stubbornly stuck, with only 7.41% in contract compared to 8.7% at last report. That equates to only 8 homes in contract our of 108 currently listed on the Marin county MLS for that price range. Forward-thinking buyers who are well qualified or have cash can pick up tremendous bargains on these upper-end propertied. Like everything else, this situation will eventually change- but for the moment, many luxury homes in Marin County could be called "The Deal of the Century"!
Condo inventory relatively stable, at 364 units on October 13 vs. 362 on October 2. YTD unit sales slipped below the same date last year at 370 on October 12 compared to the year-ago figure of 378, or down 2%. Percentage in contract down slightly from 31.2 to 30.4%. Average YTD sold price of $402,306 on October 12 up from last year at the same time when it was $373,175. This is not necessarily all attributable to price appreciation as much depends on the specific mix of units being sold. Days on Market at 111 vs. 103 last year at the same time.
Pricing a critical element in the curent Marin County real estate market. Smart, successful sellers and their agents search current comparable sales and set prices accordingly. Then they prepare the property carefully and present it in the best possible light, with appropriate marketing. They are prepared to negotiate, and they know that no amount of marketing will sell an overpriced listing in the current environment. Buyers spend a lot of time on Trulia, Redfin, Zillow, and other sites. They have done their homework and they know values. Sellers benefit from the assistance of professional local REALTORS who know neighborhood values.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, October 4, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 10.3.10
Hello Everyone,
According to a Wall Street Journal article dated October 1, "U.S. stocks kicked off the fourth quarter on a positive note, rising modestly even as a string of economic reports, including key manufacturing data, yielded conflicting signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 42 points, or 0.4%, at 10830. But the blue-chip index fell 0.3% for the week and snapped its four-week winning streak. " The article went on to state "Friday's gains came after the Dow surged 7.7% last month -- its best September performance since 1939".
Read the full article at http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101001-712081.html
More good news arrived in my inbox Friday in the form of an email from a colleague with an article by Forbes editor Robert Lenzner. The piece reported that billionaire hedge fund operator John Paulson recently "told a standing room only crowd at New York’s University Club that double-digit inflation is about to rear its ugly head by 2012, killing the bond market, and restoring strength to equities and gold." and stated that this was the best time in 50 years to buy homes. The article quoted Paulson as recommending "“If you don’t own a home buy one,” ” if you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”
Refreshing, upbeat real estate predictions from someone who has a pretty good track record---- in his league they keep score with dollars, and he is way ahead! Read the article at
http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2010/09/27/john-paulson-sell-bonds-buy-stocks-double-digit-inflation-coming/
Monthly City-by-City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows showed a decline in percentage in contract and 6 showed an increase. Winners included Corte Madera at 49% in contract, followed by Greenbrae at 42.5%. Fairfax showing the best gain, going from 7.89% last month to 29% on October 2. Ross had the weakest showing with only 2 of 21 listed homes in contract, or 9.5%.
SFR's and Condo's showed slight gains in percentage in contract in all price ranges. Some encouraging increases in the upper end activity with SFR's above $3million going from 5% to 8.7% in contract and condo's in the $1million to $1.99 million category going from 5.5% to 11% in contract since the beginning of September. CB MarketQuest showing some very encouraging statistics with 268 accepted offers on Single Family Residences during the month compared to 146 in Sept of last year and 143 in the same period in 2008. This brought the ratio of accepted offers to inventory to 25.6% during the month compared to 11.6% and 12.7% in September for the previous two years. Condo's showed a similar trend with 77 accepted offers in September compared to 52 in Sept 2009 and 58 in the same period in 2008. This brought the ratio of accepted offers to inventory to 28.3% at the end of September compared to the year-ago figure of 16.5% and 15.5% in Sept., 2008. At the same time, though still ahead of 2009, the substantial YTD sales gains of the first part of the year continue to erode. SFR YTD units sold as of 9/28 were 1356 compared to 1130 at the same time last year. The 226 unit difference represents a 20% increase. Condo YTD unit sales of 354 narrowly squeak ahead of last year's 347 at the same time with a meager 2% increase. The question is, will the new sales activity be enough to reverse this downward trend?
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
According to a Wall Street Journal article dated October 1, "U.S. stocks kicked off the fourth quarter on a positive note, rising modestly even as a string of economic reports, including key manufacturing data, yielded conflicting signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 42 points, or 0.4%, at 10830. But the blue-chip index fell 0.3% for the week and snapped its four-week winning streak. " The article went on to state "Friday's gains came after the Dow surged 7.7% last month -- its best September performance since 1939".
Read the full article at http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101001-712081.html
More good news arrived in my inbox Friday in the form of an email from a colleague with an article by Forbes editor Robert Lenzner. The piece reported that billionaire hedge fund operator John Paulson recently "told a standing room only crowd at New York’s University Club that double-digit inflation is about to rear its ugly head by 2012, killing the bond market, and restoring strength to equities and gold." and stated that this was the best time in 50 years to buy homes. The article quoted Paulson as recommending "“If you don’t own a home buy one,” ” if you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”
Refreshing, upbeat real estate predictions from someone who has a pretty good track record---- in his league they keep score with dollars, and he is way ahead! Read the article at
http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2010/09/27/john-paulson-sell-bonds-buy-stocks-double-digit-inflation-coming/
Monthly City-by-City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 Marin County cities and towns it follows showed a decline in percentage in contract and 6 showed an increase. Winners included Corte Madera at 49% in contract, followed by Greenbrae at 42.5%. Fairfax showing the best gain, going from 7.89% last month to 29% on October 2. Ross had the weakest showing with only 2 of 21 listed homes in contract, or 9.5%.
SFR's and Condo's showed slight gains in percentage in contract in all price ranges. Some encouraging increases in the upper end activity with SFR's above $3million going from 5% to 8.7% in contract and condo's in the $1million to $1.99 million category going from 5.5% to 11% in contract since the beginning of September. CB MarketQuest showing some very encouraging statistics with 268 accepted offers on Single Family Residences during the month compared to 146 in Sept of last year and 143 in the same period in 2008. This brought the ratio of accepted offers to inventory to 25.6% during the month compared to 11.6% and 12.7% in September for the previous two years. Condo's showed a similar trend with 77 accepted offers in September compared to 52 in Sept 2009 and 58 in the same period in 2008. This brought the ratio of accepted offers to inventory to 28.3% at the end of September compared to the year-ago figure of 16.5% and 15.5% in Sept., 2008. At the same time, though still ahead of 2009, the substantial YTD sales gains of the first part of the year continue to erode. SFR YTD units sold as of 9/28 were 1356 compared to 1130 at the same time last year. The 226 unit difference represents a 20% increase. Condo YTD unit sales of 354 narrowly squeak ahead of last year's 347 at the same time with a meager 2% increase. The question is, will the new sales activity be enough to reverse this downward trend?
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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