(for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
Economy and stock market continue to rock and roll, with the Dow finishing the week in the 6700 range, lowest since 1997. Much of this on fears about Citibank and GM. According to the March 6 Wall Street Journal, GM now openly talking about the possibility of a "pre-packaged" bankruptcy while their auditors say they may not be able to continue operations under the current conditions----something unthinkable only months ago.
Marin City by City Analysis out this week shows Novato and San Rafael out in front of the pack at 34.2% and 27.1%, respectively, of MLS listings in-contract as of March 3. As we have discussed before, this primarily due to REO activity and resultant lower prices. Out of 13 towns and cities covered by the report, 7 showed increased percentage in contract, 5 decreased and San Anselmo remained essentially unchanged at 16%. Greenbrae at the bottom of the ladder with 0 of 20 listings in contract as of March 3.
Single Family Residences down to 19.22% in contract overall. This, primarily due to lagging sales in the over- $1million listings, which range from 6.9% to 12.55% in contract- solid buyers markets with big opportunities for those well qualified for loans or with cash to spend. Conversely, the under-$1million market at 26.15% in contract, down a bit from last month's 30.6%, but still respectable. Year to date (YTD) units sold at 133 to March 3 vs. 177 last year, a drop of 24.8% but actually a slight improvement over -27% in last month's report. Average sale price of units sold YTD is at $838,372 vs. $1,398,972 last year at the same time. This due in large part to less expensive homes selling (the under-$1million segment mentioned above), and not an indication that home prices have plummeted 40%. Days on Market (DOM) for sold listings at 116 vs. 109 a year ago. In February, there were 225 new SFR listings, 56 sales, 148 accepted offers and 121 listings expired or were cancelled (MarketQuest).
Condo's doing quite nicely at 31.2% in contract overall and 59 units sold YTD as of March 3 vs. 43 units last year at the same time, an increase of 37%. Again, average prices for units sold at $306,400 vs. last year's $600,887 a result of lower-end units selling and not an indication of a 50% collapse in value, though condominium values, particularly in northern Marin have suffered due to REO sales. DOM at117 vs. 95 at this time in 08. In February there were 75 new condo listings, 22 sales, 68 accepted offers and 46 listings expired or were cancelled (Market Quest).
Current market offers great opportunity with excellent prices. Good ability to negotiate. Great loan rates. Not likely we will see a confluence of these events again for many years. Wise buyers and sellers benefit from the experience and market knowledge of experienced local real estate professionals and loan officers/mortgage brokers-- invaluable in this kind of environment.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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