for access to spreadsheets, please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Wall Street woe worsens worrying would-be buyers.
Stocks trembled and tumbled again during the business week ending on November 21, giving up several years worth of gains. According to the Nov. 21 Wall Street Journal, "the Dow is off 47% from last year's record, its heaviest decline since the bear market of 1937-1938 when it fell 49%" The article also states that "If the S&P 500 were to finish the year where it was on Thursday, it would mark an annual decline of 48.8%, the worst annual percentage drop in its 80-year history".
In spite of all this, properties are being bought and sold here in Marin. Many buyers with the courage of their convictions picking up exceptional deals. According to Andrew Grossman of Princeton Capital, there is "no problem getting money" for mortgages. Putting this in context, it is true that buyers have to have good credit, verifiable income, and a down payment. The down payment may not have to be a full 20% if the buyer is willing to get private mortgage insurance. There are 90% loans going through. The property has to appraise, and the larger the loan, the greater the chance that the appraisal will undergo a review. All this said however, loans are still being made. Now is a great time to get in the market and avoid the competition from all the other buyers who later will wish they had pulled their chairs up to the table. Bottom line is--- there is money out there for qualified buyers.
Single Family Residences (SFR). In the 7 days ending on November 18, inventory of SFR's declined 25 units to 970. This compares to 848 in November of '07 and 822 in November of '06. Overall percentage in contract up 3 points to 20.8%, still a buyers market, but the popular under-$1million range a "sellers' " market at 27.95% in contract. As previously discussed, this is not a license to overprice, but rather an indication that properly prepared and presented, wel-located and well-priced homes under $1million are still selling well. Varies of course by town, neighborhood, street and by specific home. Check with a knowledgable local real estate professional for the best advice on pricing in this market.. YTD units sold at 1429 vs.1821 last year at this time, or -21.5%, the gap widening again for the last couple weeks, but not dramatically. Average list price for YTD units sold $1,394,944 and average sold price $1,291,702. Average Days on market (DOM) at 87. Comparable figures last year were average list $1,447,653, average sold $1,367,997, and DOM 74.
Condo sales again the bright spot in the Marin market. Inventory declined 12 units to 323. This compares to 269 in November of '06 and 314 in November of '07. Overall percentage in contract up just slightly to 35.29%, but enough to push it over the line and change the label to "strong sellers' " market. Under-$1million segment doing even better at 36.42% in contract relieved of the statistical burden of the 10 units over $1million of which none were in contract as of 11/18. Regarding the significance of this condo market being in "strong sellers' " territory, please see above reference under SFR's. YTD units sold at 442 vs 461 last year at this time-- the gap continuing to close and now at only -4.1%. Lots of buyers recognizing value in this reduced-price REO-driven environment and snapping up properties. Average list price for YTD units sold $530,694. Average sold price $490,175. Average DOM 104. Last year's comparable figures were: average list $675,726; average sold $652,337; DOM 83.
Lots of buyers and some sellers will take a break for the Holidays. This provides perfect opportunity for persistance to pay off.
More next week. Until then best wishes to all,
Fred
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment