Hello Everyone,
La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick, in a November 16 report, stated:
"The Bay Area housing market logged another month of lackluster activity in October as some of the recent signs of incremental market improvement began to fade. High-end sales dropped markedly, likely the result of changes to “conforming loan” limits---". This is a reference to the limits for government-insured housing loans which, here in Marin County, were reduced from $729,750 to $625,500 on October 1. Most lenders had stopped taking applications for the higher limits substantially before that time. The House of Representatives voted Thursday (Nov 17) to reinstate the expired higher loan limits, and President Obama signed the bill into law on Friday. Many had predicted that decreasing the limits in a still-faltering economy would deprive the struggling housing market of much-needed liquidity and result in further price attrition. That prediction was not "rocket science". The article goes on to say that although Bay Area real estate unit sales for October, at 6,444 were up from 6,122 (5.5%) in October of 2010, they were down 4.5% from 6,749 in September of this year. The article notes that sales are usually "flat" from Sept. to Oct. so a decline was unexpected. “We’ve been watching the real estate market take itty bitty baby steps in the direction of normalcy, but that trend paused last month. ARM and jumbo loan usage went back down, cash and investor sales went back up as a portion of the market. This may well be a short-term pause while the market recalibrates changes in loan thresholds. We’ll know more in a few months,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president. Fortunately, now that the increased limits have been reinstated, we will not have to wait a few months for a result that would have been almost a foregone conclusion. It may take a while to ramp the sales back up though, particularly as we are approaching the traditionally slow Holiday Season.
Full text of article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111116.aspx
I have written on a number of occasions about the benefits to Buyers and Sellers of staying in the market during the Holidays rather than taking time off. Fundamentally, it boils down to this:
Buyers---Less competition for the homes you want. Get them now!
Sellers-- The Buyers who are still out there during the Holidays are motivated. Make sure your property is available to them!
Marin County real estate inventory continues its seasonal decline, with percentage in contract increasing at every price point.
Single Family Residences
The hot segment here is still $0-999K, increasing again (Nov 15) to 42.37% in contract, from 40.26% on October 25. All other price points also increased percentage in contract. Overall market checking in at "Balanced", with 33.3% in contract, compared to 30.21% last time.
$1M-$1.99M segment at 22% vs. 18.8% on Oct. 25, and $2M-$2.99 going from 16.05% to 20% during the same period. The $3M and up segment increased slightly, from 4.6% to 5.06% during the period. YTD unit sales of SFR's at 1682 on Nov 15, up from 1611 at the same time last year, but average sales prices down from prior year to $1,000,731 from $1,037,976.
Condo's still smoking hot, with 47.08% in contract on November 15. For the under-$1M segment, it is even higher, at 48.81%. Compares to 45.51% and 46.54%, respectively, on our October 25 report. Condo YTD unit sales at 489, up 16.9% from 418 at the same time last year. Condo prices also down to $376,978 from $404,058 last year.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website,
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, November 18, 2011
Sunday, November 6, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 10.31.11
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report out this week. The only big surprise is Sausalito, roused from its somnolent state and sizzling at 40.28% in contract, now solidly in sellers’ market territory and up from where it languished as a buyers’ market for an extended period. Percentage in contract at last report was 28%. Remains to be seen if it is finally catching fire or if the sizzle will fizzle. Time will tell.
Market action reports for October show inventory for both single family residences (SFR) and Condo’s down substantially from last year’s levels. SFR’s, with only a 4.6 month supply of inventory (MSI), down 45% from Oct. of 2010. Condo MSI down 51% from the same time last year. Inventory continuing to tighten. Reluctant sellers, waiting for market values to recover, hold on to their property unless required to sell by some compelling circumstance. Basic economics teaches us that reduced supply eventually results in increasing prices which then attract a greater supply. Here in Marin County, this has yet to happen, with inventory continuing to go from low to lower. Attractive, well-priced, well-located properties often selling almost immediately, often with multiple offers, and frequently at a premium to list price. Most multiple-offer situations still not going wildly over list price because tight appraisal guidelines continue to hold prices in check, however cash buyers are obviously free to spend any amount they care to and often come out on the winning end of bidding contests, particularly in the lower end of the market. One agent was recently overheard telling clients that if they liked a particular newly-listed property, they should make an offer right away as it probably would not be around next week. The agent was right, it wasn’t. These are not hard-sell tactics--- this is just the reality of today’sMarinCountyreal estate market. There is a large pool of frustrated buyers ready to pounce on prime properties. Buyers in the higher price points may have the luxury of shopping around, but should take advantage of the opportunity while the party lasts! The only thing we know for sure is that everything changes.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Percentage in contract up for most pricing segments. Overall percentage in contract up slightly from 29.6% to 30.2% since last report. Still an overall buyers’ market, but first impressions prove deceptive when we take a closer look. Homes under $1million up another point, finally breaking the 40% barrier- a solid sellers’ market. $1million to $1.99 million range down just slightly but basically even at 18.3% in contract---continuing to be a strong buyers’ market and representing a great opportunity. $2 million to $2.99 million price point offering similar or even slightly better opportunity for buyers, at only 16.05% in contract, while the over $3million segment, at only 4.6% in contract offers enormous opportunities for those with buying and bargaining power. SFR unit sales at 1556 on Nov. 1, compared to 1499 at the same time last year, or up 3.8%. Prices are down a bit to an average of $1,008,371 compared to $1,033,918 on the same date last year.
Condominiums
Condo percentage in contract increased slightly overall, with 45.51%, of listed units in contract on October 25—just on the verge of becoming a strong sellers’ market. The under $1million condo market already there, at 46.54% in contract. YTD condo units sold at 449, up 14% from the 386 units sold last year at the same time. Average sold price for condo’s also down to $369,368 vs. last year’s $399,432. Average days on market were 147 vs 132 last year. Decreases in sales prices for Condo’s and SFR’s not entirely attributable to market price attrition. Many analysts assign about 50% of decline in average sales price to changes in market mix and other factors.
Holiday Season once again almost upon us. Many Buyers and Sellers traditionally take a break from real estate during this time. Could be a mistake for both sides as sellers can benefit from buyers who are still in the market and tend to be much more motivated, and buyers also benefit when the competition takes a break.
Bottom line: Interest rates are great; prices are low; people are buying homes!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
City-by-City Report out this week. The only big surprise is Sausalito, roused from its somnolent state and sizzling at 40.28% in contract, now solidly in sellers’ market territory and up from where it languished as a buyers’ market for an extended period. Percentage in contract at last report was 28%. Remains to be seen if it is finally catching fire or if the sizzle will fizzle. Time will tell.
Market action reports for October show inventory for both single family residences (SFR) and Condo’s down substantially from last year’s levels. SFR’s, with only a 4.6 month supply of inventory (MSI), down 45% from Oct. of 2010. Condo MSI down 51% from the same time last year. Inventory continuing to tighten. Reluctant sellers, waiting for market values to recover, hold on to their property unless required to sell by some compelling circumstance. Basic economics teaches us that reduced supply eventually results in increasing prices which then attract a greater supply. Here in Marin County, this has yet to happen, with inventory continuing to go from low to lower. Attractive, well-priced, well-located properties often selling almost immediately, often with multiple offers, and frequently at a premium to list price. Most multiple-offer situations still not going wildly over list price because tight appraisal guidelines continue to hold prices in check, however cash buyers are obviously free to spend any amount they care to and often come out on the winning end of bidding contests, particularly in the lower end of the market. One agent was recently overheard telling clients that if they liked a particular newly-listed property, they should make an offer right away as it probably would not be around next week. The agent was right, it wasn’t. These are not hard-sell tactics--- this is just the reality of today’sMarinCountyreal estate market. There is a large pool of frustrated buyers ready to pounce on prime properties. Buyers in the higher price points may have the luxury of shopping around, but should take advantage of the opportunity while the party lasts! The only thing we know for sure is that everything changes.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Percentage in contract up for most pricing segments. Overall percentage in contract up slightly from 29.6% to 30.2% since last report. Still an overall buyers’ market, but first impressions prove deceptive when we take a closer look. Homes under $1million up another point, finally breaking the 40% barrier- a solid sellers’ market. $1million to $1.99 million range down just slightly but basically even at 18.3% in contract---continuing to be a strong buyers’ market and representing a great opportunity. $2 million to $2.99 million price point offering similar or even slightly better opportunity for buyers, at only 16.05% in contract, while the over $3million segment, at only 4.6% in contract offers enormous opportunities for those with buying and bargaining power. SFR unit sales at 1556 on Nov. 1, compared to 1499 at the same time last year, or up 3.8%. Prices are down a bit to an average of $1,008,371 compared to $1,033,918 on the same date last year.
Condominiums
Condo percentage in contract increased slightly overall, with 45.51%, of listed units in contract on October 25—just on the verge of becoming a strong sellers’ market. The under $1million condo market already there, at 46.54% in contract. YTD condo units sold at 449, up 14% from the 386 units sold last year at the same time. Average sold price for condo’s also down to $369,368 vs. last year’s $399,432. Average days on market were 147 vs 132 last year. Decreases in sales prices for Condo’s and SFR’s not entirely attributable to market price attrition. Many analysts assign about 50% of decline in average sales price to changes in market mix and other factors.
Holiday Season once again almost upon us. Many Buyers and Sellers traditionally take a break from real estate during this time. Could be a mistake for both sides as sellers can benefit from buyers who are still in the market and tend to be much more motivated, and buyers also benefit when the competition takes a break.
Bottom line: Interest rates are great; prices are low; people are buying homes!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, October 14, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 10.14.11
Hello Everyone,
An October 14th article by DataQuick, the La Jolla, CA-based real estate news service features the headline: "Bay Area Home Sales Up, Prices Down from Year Ago". Chart at the bottom of the article lists Marin County as having a 10.6% increase in unit sales, comparing Sept., 2010 to Sept., 2011 results, but a 10.5% decrease in the median sales price. Article notes that Bay Area foreclosure resales were down a couple of percentage points during September, compared to the year-ago figure--- 25.6% of homes sold during the month vs. 27.5% last year. However, short sales made up about 20.1% of resales last month, compared to15.4% in September, 2010 and 15.3% in September, 2009, the article went on to say. Full text of article available at: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111014.aspx
Our own MLS statistics similar to those referenced in the article, showing Single Family Residences (SFR) up in unit sales, from 1431, YTD, as of 10/1, 2010 to1487 as of 10/1/2011---a 3.9% increase. Average YTD sold price for SFR's for the date are $1,002,406, compared to $1,049,919 a year ago. Percentages will not line up directly with the DataQuick numbers because they measure different areas by slightly different yardsticks. The important thing is that the trends are the same. SFR inventory down again, to 1033 units on 10/1. 306 of those, or 29.62% were in contract, about the same as last report. Homes under $1million, though, continue to be strong performers, with 39.38% in contract. Homes in the $1million to $2million range held steady, at a little over 19% in contract, while $2million-$3million homes notched up from 12.35% in contract at last report to 15.66% this time, the highest since July.
Condominiums actually forging ahead much more strongly on sales, with 426 sold, YTD, as of October 1, compared to 371 last year, a 14.8% increase. Prices on condo's also decreased, with the average sold price for the year at $365,319 on October 1, compared to $401,599 a year ago. Condo percentage in contract keeps going up, while inventory continues to head in the opposite direction. On July 26, there were 378 active condo listings in Marin, and 135 were in contract--- about 35.7%. On October 1, the figures were 337 active listings, of which 45.1% or 152 units were in contract. Just a reminder about sales prices for both SFR's and Condo's. It is estimated that only about half of the amount of price decreases is attributable to lower values--- the other half a result of changes in "market mix", meaning homes of lesser value were coming to market.
Stock market has just finished its 3rd positive week, removing some of the fear from the forefront of people's minds, but try to remember that the future of the Marin County real estate market is not directly related to the day-to-day fluctuations of the stock market. What is more important is that prices are great, and interest rates are low. For those who need a place to live, this should provide a major incentive to take the plunge.
Marin County real estate market is active, with buyers looking for what they consider to be acceptable properties, then pouncing on them, often several at a time. One home last week was rumored to have over 16 offers. Many sellers still holding off listing their homes, trying to wait out the down market. May be missing an opportunity to sell at a good price now!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. To view spreadsheets, please visit my website:
http://www.fredanlyan.com
An October 14th article by DataQuick, the La Jolla, CA-based real estate news service features the headline: "Bay Area Home Sales Up, Prices Down from Year Ago". Chart at the bottom of the article lists Marin County as having a 10.6% increase in unit sales, comparing Sept., 2010 to Sept., 2011 results, but a 10.5% decrease in the median sales price. Article notes that Bay Area foreclosure resales were down a couple of percentage points during September, compared to the year-ago figure--- 25.6% of homes sold during the month vs. 27.5% last year. However, short sales made up about 20.1% of resales last month, compared to15.4% in September, 2010 and 15.3% in September, 2009, the article went on to say. Full text of article available at: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111014.aspx
Our own MLS statistics similar to those referenced in the article, showing Single Family Residences (SFR) up in unit sales, from 1431, YTD, as of 10/1, 2010 to1487 as of 10/1/2011---a 3.9% increase. Average YTD sold price for SFR's for the date are $1,002,406, compared to $1,049,919 a year ago. Percentages will not line up directly with the DataQuick numbers because they measure different areas by slightly different yardsticks. The important thing is that the trends are the same. SFR inventory down again, to 1033 units on 10/1. 306 of those, or 29.62% were in contract, about the same as last report. Homes under $1million, though, continue to be strong performers, with 39.38% in contract. Homes in the $1million to $2million range held steady, at a little over 19% in contract, while $2million-$3million homes notched up from 12.35% in contract at last report to 15.66% this time, the highest since July.
Condominiums actually forging ahead much more strongly on sales, with 426 sold, YTD, as of October 1, compared to 371 last year, a 14.8% increase. Prices on condo's also decreased, with the average sold price for the year at $365,319 on October 1, compared to $401,599 a year ago. Condo percentage in contract keeps going up, while inventory continues to head in the opposite direction. On July 26, there were 378 active condo listings in Marin, and 135 were in contract--- about 35.7%. On October 1, the figures were 337 active listings, of which 45.1% or 152 units were in contract. Just a reminder about sales prices for both SFR's and Condo's. It is estimated that only about half of the amount of price decreases is attributable to lower values--- the other half a result of changes in "market mix", meaning homes of lesser value were coming to market.
Stock market has just finished its 3rd positive week, removing some of the fear from the forefront of people's minds, but try to remember that the future of the Marin County real estate market is not directly related to the day-to-day fluctuations of the stock market. What is more important is that prices are great, and interest rates are low. For those who need a place to live, this should provide a major incentive to take the plunge.
Marin County real estate market is active, with buyers looking for what they consider to be acceptable properties, then pouncing on them, often several at a time. One home last week was rumored to have over 16 offers. Many sellers still holding off listing their homes, trying to wait out the down market. May be missing an opportunity to sell at a good price now!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. To view spreadsheets, please visit my website:
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, October 3, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate. 10.3.2011
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up for 6 of 13 area cities and towns, and down for 7. No huge swings. Nonetheless, Novato the leader with a very strong 48.69% in contract---considered a "strong sellers" market, but remember that right now this means there is a lot of demand, but only at the right price. Greenbrae, a perennial buyers' favorite, off just a bit from last report, but still strong enough for 2nd place at 47.06% in contract. Corte Madera, always a strong performer, coming in 3rd, with 44.19% of listed homes in contract as of October 1. San Anselmo, Fairfax, and Mill Valley in a dead heat for 4th place, all with around 31% in contract, and San Rafael, dropping a few points in recent weeks, sliding into 5th place at 30.89%. (Source, Bareis MLS).
Inventory for single Family Residences (SFR) increased slightly over the last 2 weeks, now at 1071, vs. 1042 at last report. Overall percentage in contract increased slightly, from 28.5% to 29.23%, but the breakdown by price segment tells a more detailed story. SFR's under $1million at 39.99% in contract, up a point from last report, showing good strength and reflecting strong demand for this segment. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.78%, back in the range where they had been earlier, before a slight dip at last report. Reflects encouraging support in the move-up and lower end of the luxury market. $2.0-$2.9 million dollar range at 12.35% in contract-- about where it was 2 weeks ago-- ahead of the August 30 figure of 9.5%, but behind the July and early August numbers of 14-17%. The over-$3million market, which had been in the high 11% territory as recently as July, dropped to 4.35% for this report. Softness in the upper-end market possibly reflecting recent economic uncertainty and concern among more affluent buyers. As we have said repeatedly, there is tremendous opportunity in this market segment for those with an eye for value and just a touch of the buccaneer spirit! (above statistics drawn from Bareis MLS).
Condo inventory in the County actually down again, with an 8 unit drop to 344 as of October 1. 327 of those units were priced under $1million, and 44.95% of them were in contract vs. 39.29% two weeks ago. Out of 16 units in the $1million to $1.99 million range, only 2, or 12.5% were in contract, and the lone over-$2 Million condo was still looking for a buyer, leaving that segment at 0% in contract. (these statistics also from Bareis MLS)
Monthly Coldwell Banker MarketQuest Market action reports, also out this week show detailed sales information and history and are worth more than a passing glance. Check them out. Particularly noticable are the statistics on months' supply of inventory (MSI), which seems to keep heading down, down, down. Great for sellers! SFR's down to 4.6 MSI as of 9/30. At the end of August, it was 5.2, and last September's number was 8.4. Condo's a similar story, with current MSI at 4.1 vs. 5.0 last month and 8.3 at the end of September 2010.
Stock market jitters continue as a reaction to still-unfolding international financial drama. Resolution to this situation not yet in sight, so effects will probably continue for the forseeable future. Still, a lot of Marin County real estate is selling briskly, and at prices that seem to represent excellent value. The final judgement is up to you!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s.for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up for 6 of 13 area cities and towns, and down for 7. No huge swings. Nonetheless, Novato the leader with a very strong 48.69% in contract---considered a "strong sellers" market, but remember that right now this means there is a lot of demand, but only at the right price. Greenbrae, a perennial buyers' favorite, off just a bit from last report, but still strong enough for 2nd place at 47.06% in contract. Corte Madera, always a strong performer, coming in 3rd, with 44.19% of listed homes in contract as of October 1. San Anselmo, Fairfax, and Mill Valley in a dead heat for 4th place, all with around 31% in contract, and San Rafael, dropping a few points in recent weeks, sliding into 5th place at 30.89%. (Source, Bareis MLS).
Inventory for single Family Residences (SFR) increased slightly over the last 2 weeks, now at 1071, vs. 1042 at last report. Overall percentage in contract increased slightly, from 28.5% to 29.23%, but the breakdown by price segment tells a more detailed story. SFR's under $1million at 39.99% in contract, up a point from last report, showing good strength and reflecting strong demand for this segment. Homes in the $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.78%, back in the range where they had been earlier, before a slight dip at last report. Reflects encouraging support in the move-up and lower end of the luxury market. $2.0-$2.9 million dollar range at 12.35% in contract-- about where it was 2 weeks ago-- ahead of the August 30 figure of 9.5%, but behind the July and early August numbers of 14-17%. The over-$3million market, which had been in the high 11% territory as recently as July, dropped to 4.35% for this report. Softness in the upper-end market possibly reflecting recent economic uncertainty and concern among more affluent buyers. As we have said repeatedly, there is tremendous opportunity in this market segment for those with an eye for value and just a touch of the buccaneer spirit! (above statistics drawn from Bareis MLS).
Condo inventory in the County actually down again, with an 8 unit drop to 344 as of October 1. 327 of those units were priced under $1million, and 44.95% of them were in contract vs. 39.29% two weeks ago. Out of 16 units in the $1million to $1.99 million range, only 2, or 12.5% were in contract, and the lone over-$2 Million condo was still looking for a buyer, leaving that segment at 0% in contract. (these statistics also from Bareis MLS)
Monthly Coldwell Banker MarketQuest Market action reports, also out this week show detailed sales information and history and are worth more than a passing glance. Check them out. Particularly noticable are the statistics on months' supply of inventory (MSI), which seems to keep heading down, down, down. Great for sellers! SFR's down to 4.6 MSI as of 9/30. At the end of August, it was 5.2, and last September's number was 8.4. Condo's a similar story, with current MSI at 4.1 vs. 5.0 last month and 8.3 at the end of September 2010.
Stock market jitters continue as a reaction to still-unfolding international financial drama. Resolution to this situation not yet in sight, so effects will probably continue for the forseeable future. Still, a lot of Marin County real estate is selling briskly, and at prices that seem to represent excellent value. The final judgement is up to you!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s.for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, September 18, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 9.18.2011
Hello Everyone,
"More Bay Area homes sold last month but the pace was still well below average as the market remained plagued by uncertainty – over the future of home prices, jobs, the economy and the nation’s political future. The median price paid for a home dropped below the year-ago level for the 11th consecutive month as distressed property sales claimed around half of the resale market" according to a September 16 article by La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick, a real estate news service. This pretty much sums up what we have been saying recently about our local Marin County real estate market. Buyers afraid to make long-term commitments when they don't know if they will have jobs or if their newly-purchased homes will maintain their value. Article goes on to state "Looking ahead, we'll be watching the mortgage default filings closely, given their surge last month from July. If that continues this fall, it could mean a lot more distressed properties on the market next year, which would put downward pressure on prices." Full text of article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110916.aspx
Here in Marin County, year-to-date (YTD) real estate sales vs. 2010 are up in units but down in price.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Approximately 47% of Main County SFR's sold YTD represented some type of distressed sale, resulting in continued price restraint. Unit sales as of September 13 were 1339 units, vs. 1290 at the same time last year, an increase of 3.8%. Average sold price, however, fell from $1,042,985 to $1,001,269. As we have noted previously, please keep in mind that we estimate at least half that price decline is attributable to market mix rather than price decline.
Condominiums
Condo's told a similar story. Approximately 61% of YTD Marin County condo sales were distressed. Condo unit sales as of September 13 were 384 units vs. 340 at the same time in 2010, an increase of 13%. Condo prices were down too, with the average sold price at $371,429 vs. the year-ago figure of $404,630.
While it may be true, as the DataQuick article suggests, that there is more downside risk in this market, it appears that if we are not at the bottom of the market, we are certainly near it. Population will continue to increase, there is a limited supply of Bay Area housing, and Marin County has very little room to build more. In real estate, as in the stock market, just about everyone agrees it is extremely difficult to identify the absolute bottom of a market. Usually what happens is that by the time people realize that the market has turned positive again, significant gains have already been made. So the question becomes whether or not any money lost on a small post-purchase price decline would be less than the extra money paid by delaying the purchase until prices are already on their way back up. At that point, more properties will be receiving multiple offers and competition with other buyers will be driving prices up--- probably not the way they went up in 2006-2007, but significantly, nonetheless. In addition, mortgage rates will probably increase due to an increased demand for funds. Is it better to buy now, with less competition, lower price, lower rate mortgage--- or wait until everyone else decides to jump in the market? A $500,000 mortgage with an increase of 1% in the lending rate would add on about $416 to the monthly payment. As we have said before, buying Marin County real estate now seems like a no-brainer. The DataQuick article notes that, in August, 21.3% of homes sold in the County were purchased by "absentee buyers-mostly investors", up from 17.8% a year ago. Do they know something the rest of us don't?
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see:
http://www.fredanlyan.com
"More Bay Area homes sold last month but the pace was still well below average as the market remained plagued by uncertainty – over the future of home prices, jobs, the economy and the nation’s political future. The median price paid for a home dropped below the year-ago level for the 11th consecutive month as distressed property sales claimed around half of the resale market" according to a September 16 article by La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick, a real estate news service. This pretty much sums up what we have been saying recently about our local Marin County real estate market. Buyers afraid to make long-term commitments when they don't know if they will have jobs or if their newly-purchased homes will maintain their value. Article goes on to state "Looking ahead, we'll be watching the mortgage default filings closely, given their surge last month from July. If that continues this fall, it could mean a lot more distressed properties on the market next year, which would put downward pressure on prices." Full text of article available at:
http://dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110916.aspx
Here in Marin County, year-to-date (YTD) real estate sales vs. 2010 are up in units but down in price.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
Approximately 47% of Main County SFR's sold YTD represented some type of distressed sale, resulting in continued price restraint. Unit sales as of September 13 were 1339 units, vs. 1290 at the same time last year, an increase of 3.8%. Average sold price, however, fell from $1,042,985 to $1,001,269. As we have noted previously, please keep in mind that we estimate at least half that price decline is attributable to market mix rather than price decline.
Condominiums
Condo's told a similar story. Approximately 61% of YTD Marin County condo sales were distressed. Condo unit sales as of September 13 were 384 units vs. 340 at the same time in 2010, an increase of 13%. Condo prices were down too, with the average sold price at $371,429 vs. the year-ago figure of $404,630.
While it may be true, as the DataQuick article suggests, that there is more downside risk in this market, it appears that if we are not at the bottom of the market, we are certainly near it. Population will continue to increase, there is a limited supply of Bay Area housing, and Marin County has very little room to build more. In real estate, as in the stock market, just about everyone agrees it is extremely difficult to identify the absolute bottom of a market. Usually what happens is that by the time people realize that the market has turned positive again, significant gains have already been made. So the question becomes whether or not any money lost on a small post-purchase price decline would be less than the extra money paid by delaying the purchase until prices are already on their way back up. At that point, more properties will be receiving multiple offers and competition with other buyers will be driving prices up--- probably not the way they went up in 2006-2007, but significantly, nonetheless. In addition, mortgage rates will probably increase due to an increased demand for funds. Is it better to buy now, with less competition, lower price, lower rate mortgage--- or wait until everyone else decides to jump in the market? A $500,000 mortgage with an increase of 1% in the lending rate would add on about $416 to the monthly payment. As we have said before, buying Marin County real estate now seems like a no-brainer. The DataQuick article notes that, in August, 21.3% of homes sold in the County were purchased by "absentee buyers-mostly investors", up from 17.8% a year ago. Do they know something the rest of us don't?
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see:
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, September 5, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 9.4.11
Hello Everyone,
The summer seemed to pass us by really quickly, and here we are-- already at the end of another Labor Day Weekend!
City-by-City analysis, out this week shows 6 of 13 listed cities and towns' percentage in contract up, and 7 down, most of them only incremental. Three notable exceptions to this are:
1. Belvedere, with 29 homes on the market as of 9/4, and none of them in contract 2.Mill Valley, where inventory decreased from 173 last month, to 159, and percentage in contract increased from 24.86% to 29.56% 3. Novato, with a decrease from 334 to 313 listed housing units and percentage in contract increasing from 38% to 43.45%.
Overall, housing inventory very low for this time of year, compared to prior years. Results in a lot of activity for attractive, well-priced new listings, which are often gone in the first 1 or 2 weeks, not infrequently with multiple offers. Most of them not going far over listing price, but a few are. Proper pricing still a major key to success, as overpriced homes tend to sit on the market while buyers wait for prices to get into line with reality. Many buyers making offers substantially below listing price, hoping to negotiate something in between their offer and the advertised price. Many of them successful!
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory, at 710 units (CB Market action report. Figures do not include properties in-contract, accounting for the difference between this number and the SFR and Condo reports, which do include those properties). To put this in perspective, in August of 2010, there were 1,237 SFR units listed, and in August of '09, 1,212. In December of '10, the low point for the year, there were 753 SFR units on MLS. In Dec. of '09, it was 809, and in '08, it was 805. On 8/30, the months' supply of inventory (MSI) for SFR's (CB MarketQuest) was 4.3, less than half of last August's 9 month supply. In the County, 1264 SFR units sold YTD as of 8/30, compared to 1222 at the same time last year, a 3.7% increase, so even with less inventory from which to choose, buyers somehow managed to find and purchase more property this year than last. Judging from the number of open escrows we are seeing, we are looking for that trend to continue through the fall. The big question is-- when will sellers start to turn the supply of homes back on??
Condominiums following a pattern similar to SFR's. Inventory severely constrained, with only 247 units available (CB Market Action Report) as of 8/30. Compares to 381 last August, and 344 in Aug of '09. The December figures for the last 3 years are: Dec, 2010----291; Dec 2009-- 260'; and Dec 2008----287. YTD condo units sold as of 8/30 were 358, up 11.5% from last August's 321. MSI for condo's as of 8/30 (CB MarketQuest) was 4.3, again less than half of last August's 10 month supply!
There seems to be a lot of pent-up buyer demand in the market. Normally, this would result in higher prices which, in turn, would pull more inventory into the market. Strict underwriting and appraisal standards are holding this in check to a large extent, so sellers are giving the contracts to the "gold plated" buyers--- the ones they think have the best chance of closing escrow. All-cash buyers, or those with a major portion of the purchase price in cash have a very significant advantage in this market, especially in sales involving new listings. Homes priced above $2million (mostly SFR's) declined to 9.86% in contract from last month's 17.72%. Previous 3 months had been in the 13% to 16% range. Unclear if this is a trend, but looks like a further opportunity for high-end buyers. Individuals thinking about moving up to larger homes would do well to focus more attention on the huge potential savings on a new upper-end home purchase as it will more than likely significantly outweigh any potential loss on the sale of the lower-priced current home. When opportunity knocks-------!
More next time.
Best wishes to all for a happy, healthy, and prosperous autumn season,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
The summer seemed to pass us by really quickly, and here we are-- already at the end of another Labor Day Weekend!
City-by-City analysis, out this week shows 6 of 13 listed cities and towns' percentage in contract up, and 7 down, most of them only incremental. Three notable exceptions to this are:
1. Belvedere, with 29 homes on the market as of 9/4, and none of them in contract 2.Mill Valley, where inventory decreased from 173 last month, to 159, and percentage in contract increased from 24.86% to 29.56% 3. Novato, with a decrease from 334 to 313 listed housing units and percentage in contract increasing from 38% to 43.45%.
Overall, housing inventory very low for this time of year, compared to prior years. Results in a lot of activity for attractive, well-priced new listings, which are often gone in the first 1 or 2 weeks, not infrequently with multiple offers. Most of them not going far over listing price, but a few are. Proper pricing still a major key to success, as overpriced homes tend to sit on the market while buyers wait for prices to get into line with reality. Many buyers making offers substantially below listing price, hoping to negotiate something in between their offer and the advertised price. Many of them successful!
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory, at 710 units (CB Market action report. Figures do not include properties in-contract, accounting for the difference between this number and the SFR and Condo reports, which do include those properties). To put this in perspective, in August of 2010, there were 1,237 SFR units listed, and in August of '09, 1,212. In December of '10, the low point for the year, there were 753 SFR units on MLS. In Dec. of '09, it was 809, and in '08, it was 805. On 8/30, the months' supply of inventory (MSI) for SFR's (CB MarketQuest) was 4.3, less than half of last August's 9 month supply. In the County, 1264 SFR units sold YTD as of 8/30, compared to 1222 at the same time last year, a 3.7% increase, so even with less inventory from which to choose, buyers somehow managed to find and purchase more property this year than last. Judging from the number of open escrows we are seeing, we are looking for that trend to continue through the fall. The big question is-- when will sellers start to turn the supply of homes back on??
Condominiums following a pattern similar to SFR's. Inventory severely constrained, with only 247 units available (CB Market Action Report) as of 8/30. Compares to 381 last August, and 344 in Aug of '09. The December figures for the last 3 years are: Dec, 2010----291; Dec 2009-- 260'; and Dec 2008----287. YTD condo units sold as of 8/30 were 358, up 11.5% from last August's 321. MSI for condo's as of 8/30 (CB MarketQuest) was 4.3, again less than half of last August's 10 month supply!
There seems to be a lot of pent-up buyer demand in the market. Normally, this would result in higher prices which, in turn, would pull more inventory into the market. Strict underwriting and appraisal standards are holding this in check to a large extent, so sellers are giving the contracts to the "gold plated" buyers--- the ones they think have the best chance of closing escrow. All-cash buyers, or those with a major portion of the purchase price in cash have a very significant advantage in this market, especially in sales involving new listings. Homes priced above $2million (mostly SFR's) declined to 9.86% in contract from last month's 17.72%. Previous 3 months had been in the 13% to 16% range. Unclear if this is a trend, but looks like a further opportunity for high-end buyers. Individuals thinking about moving up to larger homes would do well to focus more attention on the huge potential savings on a new upper-end home purchase as it will more than likely significantly outweigh any potential loss on the sale of the lower-priced current home. When opportunity knocks-------!
More next time.
Best wishes to all for a happy, healthy, and prosperous autumn season,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, August 21, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 8.21.11
Hello Everyone,
I love the following quote from John Walsh, president of La Jolla-based Data Quick, a real estate information service. The article in which it appeared was dated August 16. Full text available at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110816.aspx
Speaking of the Bay Area housing market, Mr. Walsh stated:
"We’re still looking at a dysfunctional market. Distribution curves are lopsided, bottom-feeding is still prevalent and the lending market is just plain weird. We’re off bottom by all metrics, but far from anything resembling normal,"
Normally, the local real estate market takes a bit of a vacation, along with everyone else, in July and August. But this year, it took a bit more of a vacation than usual, with Bay-Area home unit sales decreasing 13.9 percent from June, compared to a historical average of 6.8 percent since 1988. (from DQ statistics)
With all the financial drama from the debt cap debacle and the constantly publicized continuing concern over the stability of the Euro and certain countries' solvency all being reflected in Wall Street swoops and dives, it is nearly impossible to tell whether we are climbing out of a familiar hole or falling into a new one! The media hype tends to engender fear and paralysis and many people find it difficult to make a large financial commitment in the face of such uncertainty.
Meanwhile, people who need homes and have faith in the economy are buying and they are getting great deals on two fronts. First, prices are more attractive than they have been in years, and second, interest rates are at historic lows. Buying property now, especially in Marin County, seems like a complete no-brainer. Many buyers who take time to do the math find that with the tax benefits and the low prices and loan rates , they can buy more cheaply than they can rent---and they won't lose their security deposit for hanging pictures on the walls! The truth is that while housing prices have been falling, rental rates have often increased.
Sellers wondering what's in it for them in this market can look to the low current levels of housing inventory for sale in Marin County. According to Coldwell Banker MarketQuest, inventory for Single Family Residences (SFR) at the end of July was down 19.3% from June, and 38.8% from July of 2010. Similarly, Condominium inventory was down 11.8% from June, and down 22.2% from July of 2010. These reduced levels of inventory create more demand and more competition for the properties that are on the market and more opportunities for sellers.
YTD unit sales of SFR's in Marin County were 1186 as of August 16, compared to the year-ago figure of 1161, up 2.2%. Average sold price was down about 4.6%, from $1,051,462 as of 8.16.10 to $1,006,672 on the same date this year, and days on the market (DOM) for YTD sold properties was 106 this year vs. 87 a year ago. The figures for condo's were: YTD unit sales as of 8.16.11--334, compared to 304 on 8.16.10, an increase of 9.2%. Average YTD condo sold price down 6.4% from $396,364 in Aug of 2010 to $370,939 on 8.16.2011, or -6.4%. As we have mentioned a number of times previously, unit price declines are not entirely attributable to declines in value but also have to do with "market mix", meaning less expensive homes are selling in greater numbers, skewing the averages. Percentage in contract for SFR's under $1million at 37.98%, down only slightly from 39.79% at last report, still considered a sellers' market. Higher-priced SFR's in the $1million to $2million and $2million to $3million ranges went up by 1 to 2 percentage points, but still in 'Strong Buyers' territory. Properties over $3million dropped from 11% to only 6% in contract over the last two weeks. Higher-end SFR's continue to represent a trememdous opportunity for buyers with money to spend. Percentage in contract for condo's under $1million (all but 15 of them) also down slightly from 37.12% at last report to 35.67% on August 16, hanging in to sellers' market territory by a gnat's breath.
Business at local brokerages brisk over the past couple of weeks. Lots of talk about listings with multiple offers. This is still not the rule, by any means, but attractive, well-priced and well-located homes often become the object of buyer competition. Investors continue to snap up properties. According to the DataQuick, article, "absentee buyers---mostly investors--purchased 21.2 percent of all Bay Area homes sold (in July), up from 20% in June, and 17.4% a year ago". The article goes on to state that all-cash buyers "accounted for 26.3% of sales in July, up from 26.0% in June, and up from 25.1% a year ago.------ the monthly average is 11.9% since 1988". All things considered, the local real estate market seems very much alive. More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
I love the following quote from John Walsh, president of La Jolla-based Data Quick, a real estate information service. The article in which it appeared was dated August 16. Full text available at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110816.aspx
Speaking of the Bay Area housing market, Mr. Walsh stated:
"We’re still looking at a dysfunctional market. Distribution curves are lopsided, bottom-feeding is still prevalent and the lending market is just plain weird. We’re off bottom by all metrics, but far from anything resembling normal,"
Normally, the local real estate market takes a bit of a vacation, along with everyone else, in July and August. But this year, it took a bit more of a vacation than usual, with Bay-Area home unit sales decreasing 13.9 percent from June, compared to a historical average of 6.8 percent since 1988. (from DQ statistics)
With all the financial drama from the debt cap debacle and the constantly publicized continuing concern over the stability of the Euro and certain countries' solvency all being reflected in Wall Street swoops and dives, it is nearly impossible to tell whether we are climbing out of a familiar hole or falling into a new one! The media hype tends to engender fear and paralysis and many people find it difficult to make a large financial commitment in the face of such uncertainty.
Meanwhile, people who need homes and have faith in the economy are buying and they are getting great deals on two fronts. First, prices are more attractive than they have been in years, and second, interest rates are at historic lows. Buying property now, especially in Marin County, seems like a complete no-brainer. Many buyers who take time to do the math find that with the tax benefits and the low prices and loan rates , they can buy more cheaply than they can rent---and they won't lose their security deposit for hanging pictures on the walls! The truth is that while housing prices have been falling, rental rates have often increased.
Sellers wondering what's in it for them in this market can look to the low current levels of housing inventory for sale in Marin County. According to Coldwell Banker MarketQuest, inventory for Single Family Residences (SFR) at the end of July was down 19.3% from June, and 38.8% from July of 2010. Similarly, Condominium inventory was down 11.8% from June, and down 22.2% from July of 2010. These reduced levels of inventory create more demand and more competition for the properties that are on the market and more opportunities for sellers.
YTD unit sales of SFR's in Marin County were 1186 as of August 16, compared to the year-ago figure of 1161, up 2.2%. Average sold price was down about 4.6%, from $1,051,462 as of 8.16.10 to $1,006,672 on the same date this year, and days on the market (DOM) for YTD sold properties was 106 this year vs. 87 a year ago. The figures for condo's were: YTD unit sales as of 8.16.11--334, compared to 304 on 8.16.10, an increase of 9.2%. Average YTD condo sold price down 6.4% from $396,364 in Aug of 2010 to $370,939 on 8.16.2011, or -6.4%. As we have mentioned a number of times previously, unit price declines are not entirely attributable to declines in value but also have to do with "market mix", meaning less expensive homes are selling in greater numbers, skewing the averages. Percentage in contract for SFR's under $1million at 37.98%, down only slightly from 39.79% at last report, still considered a sellers' market. Higher-priced SFR's in the $1million to $2million and $2million to $3million ranges went up by 1 to 2 percentage points, but still in 'Strong Buyers' territory. Properties over $3million dropped from 11% to only 6% in contract over the last two weeks. Higher-end SFR's continue to represent a trememdous opportunity for buyers with money to spend. Percentage in contract for condo's under $1million (all but 15 of them) also down slightly from 37.12% at last report to 35.67% on August 16, hanging in to sellers' market territory by a gnat's breath.
Business at local brokerages brisk over the past couple of weeks. Lots of talk about listings with multiple offers. This is still not the rule, by any means, but attractive, well-priced and well-located homes often become the object of buyer competition. Investors continue to snap up properties. According to the DataQuick, article, "absentee buyers---mostly investors--purchased 21.2 percent of all Bay Area homes sold (in July), up from 20% in June, and 17.4% a year ago". The article goes on to state that all-cash buyers "accounted for 26.3% of sales in July, up from 26.0% in June, and up from 25.1% a year ago.------ the monthly average is 11.9% since 1988". All things considered, the local real estate market seems very much alive. More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
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