Hello Everyone,
I love the following quote from John Walsh, president of La Jolla-based Data Quick, a real estate information service. The article in which it appeared was dated August 16. Full text available at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110816.aspx
Speaking of the Bay Area housing market, Mr. Walsh stated:
"We’re still looking at a dysfunctional market. Distribution curves are lopsided, bottom-feeding is still prevalent and the lending market is just plain weird. We’re off bottom by all metrics, but far from anything resembling normal,"
Normally, the local real estate market takes a bit of a vacation, along with everyone else, in July and August. But this year, it took a bit more of a vacation than usual, with Bay-Area home unit sales decreasing 13.9 percent from June, compared to a historical average of 6.8 percent since 1988. (from DQ statistics)
With all the financial drama from the debt cap debacle and the constantly publicized continuing concern over the stability of the Euro and certain countries' solvency all being reflected in Wall Street swoops and dives, it is nearly impossible to tell whether we are climbing out of a familiar hole or falling into a new one! The media hype tends to engender fear and paralysis and many people find it difficult to make a large financial commitment in the face of such uncertainty.
Meanwhile, people who need homes and have faith in the economy are buying and they are getting great deals on two fronts. First, prices are more attractive than they have been in years, and second, interest rates are at historic lows. Buying property now, especially in Marin County, seems like a complete no-brainer. Many buyers who take time to do the math find that with the tax benefits and the low prices and loan rates , they can buy more cheaply than they can rent---and they won't lose their security deposit for hanging pictures on the walls! The truth is that while housing prices have been falling, rental rates have often increased.
Sellers wondering what's in it for them in this market can look to the low current levels of housing inventory for sale in Marin County. According to Coldwell Banker MarketQuest, inventory for Single Family Residences (SFR) at the end of July was down 19.3% from June, and 38.8% from July of 2010. Similarly, Condominium inventory was down 11.8% from June, and down 22.2% from July of 2010. These reduced levels of inventory create more demand and more competition for the properties that are on the market and more opportunities for sellers.
YTD unit sales of SFR's in Marin County were 1186 as of August 16, compared to the year-ago figure of 1161, up 2.2%. Average sold price was down about 4.6%, from $1,051,462 as of 8.16.10 to $1,006,672 on the same date this year, and days on the market (DOM) for YTD sold properties was 106 this year vs. 87 a year ago. The figures for condo's were: YTD unit sales as of 8.16.11--334, compared to 304 on 8.16.10, an increase of 9.2%. Average YTD condo sold price down 6.4% from $396,364 in Aug of 2010 to $370,939 on 8.16.2011, or -6.4%. As we have mentioned a number of times previously, unit price declines are not entirely attributable to declines in value but also have to do with "market mix", meaning less expensive homes are selling in greater numbers, skewing the averages. Percentage in contract for SFR's under $1million at 37.98%, down only slightly from 39.79% at last report, still considered a sellers' market. Higher-priced SFR's in the $1million to $2million and $2million to $3million ranges went up by 1 to 2 percentage points, but still in 'Strong Buyers' territory. Properties over $3million dropped from 11% to only 6% in contract over the last two weeks. Higher-end SFR's continue to represent a trememdous opportunity for buyers with money to spend. Percentage in contract for condo's under $1million (all but 15 of them) also down slightly from 37.12% at last report to 35.67% on August 16, hanging in to sellers' market territory by a gnat's breath.
Business at local brokerages brisk over the past couple of weeks. Lots of talk about listings with multiple offers. This is still not the rule, by any means, but attractive, well-priced and well-located homes often become the object of buyer competition. Investors continue to snap up properties. According to the DataQuick, article, "absentee buyers---mostly investors--purchased 21.2 percent of all Bay Area homes sold (in July), up from 20% in June, and 17.4% a year ago". The article goes on to state that all-cash buyers "accounted for 26.3% of sales in July, up from 26.0% in June, and up from 25.1% a year ago.------ the monthly average is 11.9% since 1988". All things considered, the local real estate market seems very much alive. More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Monday, August 1, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 8.1.2011
Hello Everyone,
About four times every year, the calendar gets out of synch with our twice-per-month reporting format, and we have to wait for it to "catch up". The current period is one of those times. While we are waiting for the end-of-month data to be compiled by the reporting services we use, the writer has provided the monthly reports that are available for your use via his website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
The City-by-City Report, out this week, shows the percentage in contract of only 3 of the covered Marin County cities and towns decreased. It increased, even if only slightly, in the other 10! Single Family YTD home sales as of July 26 were 1058, compared to 1055 last year at the same time, or up 1/3 of 1%! This is great news, since we had the federal and state tax incentives last year and none this year! SFR inventory down slightly from 1141 at last report to 1115 on July 26, with percentage in contract holding pretty steady, and even increasing in the $0-$999K range (from 36.8% to 39.8%). Condo's putting forth a creditable effort too, with 292 YTD units sold as of July 26, compared to the year-ago figure of 275, or up 6%. This, a significant increase from the 2.7% year-over-year increase reported last time. Condo percentages in contract holding or increasing slightly as well.
The writer wishes all a safe and enjoyable summer season.
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
About four times every year, the calendar gets out of synch with our twice-per-month reporting format, and we have to wait for it to "catch up". The current period is one of those times. While we are waiting for the end-of-month data to be compiled by the reporting services we use, the writer has provided the monthly reports that are available for your use via his website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
The City-by-City Report, out this week, shows the percentage in contract of only 3 of the covered Marin County cities and towns decreased. It increased, even if only slightly, in the other 10! Single Family YTD home sales as of July 26 were 1058, compared to 1055 last year at the same time, or up 1/3 of 1%! This is great news, since we had the federal and state tax incentives last year and none this year! SFR inventory down slightly from 1141 at last report to 1115 on July 26, with percentage in contract holding pretty steady, and even increasing in the $0-$999K range (from 36.8% to 39.8%). Condo's putting forth a creditable effort too, with 292 YTD units sold as of July 26, compared to the year-ago figure of 275, or up 6%. This, a significant increase from the 2.7% year-over-year increase reported last time. Condo percentages in contract holding or increasing slightly as well.
The writer wishes all a safe and enjoyable summer season.
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, July 17, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 7.17.2011
Hello Everyone,
Marin County year-to-date (YTD) sales of single family residences (SFR) continuing to put in a good effort, holding roughly even with last year's sales at 978 units as of July 12, vs. the year-ago figure of 980, representing a decrease of just 2/10ths of a percent. Condominium sales hanging in there too, with 270 YTD units sold on July 12 vs. last year's 263, a 2.6% increase! This all the more notable since last year's sales in the 1st half of the year were artificially supported by the now-expired federal tax credits. Average home prices in the County are down a bit, and days on market (DOM) up: The average selling price of a Marin County SFR as of 7.12.11, was $1,001,582, compared to $1,041,200 at the same time in 2010. Average DOM were 105, compared to the 2010 figure of 88 on the same date. The 2011 YTD average sale price for condo's to July 12 was $370,371 and average DOM were 134. This compares to $396,802 and 104 DOM on the same date in 2010. As we have remarked before, probably only about half of the price attrition is attributable to declining home values, with the remainder due to sales of lower-priced foreclosures that are often in poor condition. Home prices vary widely by city, town, neighborhood, street, and individual residence. The best source of information about the value of your home is a REALTOR experienced in your specific market.
San Diego-based DataQuick, in a July 14 article noted that Marin County home sales were up 8.3% in June, with 313 total units (SFR and condo) selling during the period, compared to 289 the prior year (June, 2010), but median prices were down an average of 6.9% for the same period (follow link to see chart on p.2 of their article). The article also noted a 14.5% increase in units sold from May, 2011 to June, 2011 for the entire Bay Area. Full text available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110714.aspx
Percentage in contract and inventory of both SFR's and Condo's remaining roughly stable over the last two weeks, with 28.5% of SFR's in contract, representing 325 of 1141 listed properties. This figure a bit deceptive since properties under $1million actually doing significantly better, with 244 of 663 listed properties in that price range in contract, or 36.8%. Homes above $1million at between 11.7% and 19.% in contract depending upon price range, with percentage in contract decreasing as market price increases. This reflects continued challenges of obtaining "jumbo" financing--- easier than at the low point of the market, but still not easy. In spite of these challenges, upper-end home sales holding fairly steady, but continuing to present a major opportunity for buyers who either have cash or can qualify for financing.
Agents, buyers, and sellers in the know warily eyeing the scheduled reduction in the temporarily increased FHA loan limits, currently $729,750 in Marin County. If not renewed, the loan limit would drop on October 1, to $625,500, a reduction of $104,250. Concern is that the reduction has the potential for significant adverse effect on loan rates, home prices, and sales. Congress scheduled next week to consider whether to extend the higher limits. More on this later. Wall St. Journal recently published an informative article on the subject. See full text at:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304203304576450511770761504.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Marin County year-to-date (YTD) sales of single family residences (SFR) continuing to put in a good effort, holding roughly even with last year's sales at 978 units as of July 12, vs. the year-ago figure of 980, representing a decrease of just 2/10ths of a percent. Condominium sales hanging in there too, with 270 YTD units sold on July 12 vs. last year's 263, a 2.6% increase! This all the more notable since last year's sales in the 1st half of the year were artificially supported by the now-expired federal tax credits. Average home prices in the County are down a bit, and days on market (DOM) up: The average selling price of a Marin County SFR as of 7.12.11, was $1,001,582, compared to $1,041,200 at the same time in 2010. Average DOM were 105, compared to the 2010 figure of 88 on the same date. The 2011 YTD average sale price for condo's to July 12 was $370,371 and average DOM were 134. This compares to $396,802 and 104 DOM on the same date in 2010. As we have remarked before, probably only about half of the price attrition is attributable to declining home values, with the remainder due to sales of lower-priced foreclosures that are often in poor condition. Home prices vary widely by city, town, neighborhood, street, and individual residence. The best source of information about the value of your home is a REALTOR experienced in your specific market.
San Diego-based DataQuick, in a July 14 article noted that Marin County home sales were up 8.3% in June, with 313 total units (SFR and condo) selling during the period, compared to 289 the prior year (June, 2010), but median prices were down an average of 6.9% for the same period (follow link to see chart on p.2 of their article). The article also noted a 14.5% increase in units sold from May, 2011 to June, 2011 for the entire Bay Area. Full text available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110714.aspx
Percentage in contract and inventory of both SFR's and Condo's remaining roughly stable over the last two weeks, with 28.5% of SFR's in contract, representing 325 of 1141 listed properties. This figure a bit deceptive since properties under $1million actually doing significantly better, with 244 of 663 listed properties in that price range in contract, or 36.8%. Homes above $1million at between 11.7% and 19.% in contract depending upon price range, with percentage in contract decreasing as market price increases. This reflects continued challenges of obtaining "jumbo" financing--- easier than at the low point of the market, but still not easy. In spite of these challenges, upper-end home sales holding fairly steady, but continuing to present a major opportunity for buyers who either have cash or can qualify for financing.
Agents, buyers, and sellers in the know warily eyeing the scheduled reduction in the temporarily increased FHA loan limits, currently $729,750 in Marin County. If not renewed, the loan limit would drop on October 1, to $625,500, a reduction of $104,250. Concern is that the reduction has the potential for significant adverse effect on loan rates, home prices, and sales. Congress scheduled next week to consider whether to extend the higher limits. More on this later. Wall St. Journal recently published an informative article on the subject. See full text at:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304203304576450511770761504.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 7.5.11
Hello Everyone,
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows only 4 of 13 cities and towns covered by the report increased percentage in contract since May. Fairfax, with a slight bump from 45.95% to 46.67%, leads the pack. Larkspur (29%), Belvedere (22%), and Tiburon (18%) also up. Even though percentage in contract is down, Greenbrae (39%), Novato (38%), San Rafael (32%), and San Anselmo (31%)all doing relatively well.
According to the monthly Market Action Report, also out this week, Months' Supply of Inventory (MSI) at very low levels---3.7 months for SFR's---the lowest value in the last 24 months. The Condo Market Action Report shows 4.6 months of inventory---the lowest number since December of '09. Low inventory is typically a good sign for sellers since it creates more competition among buyers for existing listings.
Year-to-date units sold reversed course and headed in an upward direction for both SFR's and Condo's. SFR YTD units sold were 910 on June 28, compared to the year-earlier figure of 892. This represents an increase of 2% from the same period last year. On our last report, this figure was -.7%. Condo YTD units sold were 248 as of June 28, compared to 240 at the same time last year. This represents an increase of 3% from last year, and turns around the -1.3% statistic from our last report. These figures are particularly good news since sales were artificially inflated in 2010 due to Federal tax credits for homebuyers. This statistic is very encouraging, particularly if it continues.
This is the time of year that the local real estate market takes a siesta, waking up again after Labor Day when buyers and sellers return from vacation. Dedicated buyers and sellers are in the market until their goals/needs are met, regardless of vacations, holidays. This period of lower activity actually can benefit those who persevere by giving them the opportunity to shop with less competition from other buyers. Sellers can also benefit right now from the low level of inventory which has resulted in many more multiple-offer situations than we would normally expect in a market like this. There is something for everyone here!
Recent conversations with other agents and with escrow officers confirm our experience that the market has been up and down this year, reacting to financial and other news. Because of this, our local real estate market may or may not follow normal trends, but is is definitely active. Prices are reasonable, interest rates are favorable and there is opportunity for everyone!
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
City-by-City Report, out this week, shows only 4 of 13 cities and towns covered by the report increased percentage in contract since May. Fairfax, with a slight bump from 45.95% to 46.67%, leads the pack. Larkspur (29%), Belvedere (22%), and Tiburon (18%) also up. Even though percentage in contract is down, Greenbrae (39%), Novato (38%), San Rafael (32%), and San Anselmo (31%)all doing relatively well.
According to the monthly Market Action Report, also out this week, Months' Supply of Inventory (MSI) at very low levels---3.7 months for SFR's---the lowest value in the last 24 months. The Condo Market Action Report shows 4.6 months of inventory---the lowest number since December of '09. Low inventory is typically a good sign for sellers since it creates more competition among buyers for existing listings.
Year-to-date units sold reversed course and headed in an upward direction for both SFR's and Condo's. SFR YTD units sold were 910 on June 28, compared to the year-earlier figure of 892. This represents an increase of 2% from the same period last year. On our last report, this figure was -.7%. Condo YTD units sold were 248 as of June 28, compared to 240 at the same time last year. This represents an increase of 3% from last year, and turns around the -1.3% statistic from our last report. These figures are particularly good news since sales were artificially inflated in 2010 due to Federal tax credits for homebuyers. This statistic is very encouraging, particularly if it continues.
This is the time of year that the local real estate market takes a siesta, waking up again after Labor Day when buyers and sellers return from vacation. Dedicated buyers and sellers are in the market until their goals/needs are met, regardless of vacations, holidays. This period of lower activity actually can benefit those who persevere by giving them the opportunity to shop with less competition from other buyers. Sellers can also benefit right now from the low level of inventory which has resulted in many more multiple-offer situations than we would normally expect in a market like this. There is something for everyone here!
Recent conversations with other agents and with escrow officers confirm our experience that the market has been up and down this year, reacting to financial and other news. Because of this, our local real estate market may or may not follow normal trends, but is is definitely active. Prices are reasonable, interest rates are favorable and there is opportunity for everyone!
More later.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, June 20, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 6.19.2011
Hello Everyone,
Some concern this week about the ending, June 30th, of the Federal Reserve injection of cash into the financial system, known as Quantitative Easing. The Fed has supplied the financial markets with some $600 Billion in cash liquidity since the beginning of this (2nd) phase of the program in November, 2010. Stock market jittery. Many different opinions on what will happen next. Some analysts predicting the government will be forced to support the economy with a third round of Quantitative easing before too long.
Two weeks ago, in the cold and rain, we wondered if spring would ever come. Yes, there had been a few nice days, but always a return to the rain After over seven months of cold, windy, rainy weather, we had had enough. Now, suddenly it is summer and the weather is beautiful. And the real estate market seems just like that--- a few bright spots surrounded by pessimism and doubt. Meanwhile, investors continue to snap up a large portion of the available Bay Area residential real estate--- over 21% in May, according to the most recent DataQuick monthly report, dated June 15. http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110615.aspx These investors know a good deal when they see one. Home prices and mortgage rates continue at lows not seen in many years, and, like our recent extended winter, it may seem as if these bargains will go on forever. History tells us they will not. One day we will realize that the recovery has happened. In the interim, many people who formerly found themselves unable to achieve their dream of home ownership will reach out and grab it. Buyers are encouraged to take a serious look at the opportunities presented by this market! Don't wait 'till it's over!
Here in Marin County, sales of Single Family Residences (SFR) holding up pretty well. 29.33% of all SFR's listed on MLS in contract as of June 14, just slightly below the 30.56% when we reported 2 weeks ago. $0-$999K segment down 7/10ths of a point at 38.12%. We are calling this a Sellers' Market, but it is largely a Sellers' Market in name only. Homes that are attractively priced, prepared, and presented are selling, sometimes with multiple offers, but sellers ability to dictate price is still not there in most cases. Upper-end homes continue to be a huge bargain for buyers, and the more upper-end, the better the bargains. Homes over $3million considered a Very Strong Buyers' Market, with only 9.9% of listings in contract on June 14. YTD units sold on June 15 were 799 compared to 805 on the same date last year, down 7/10ths of a point. Up until May 31, this number had been in positive terrtory for the year. Let's watch this trend carefully in coming weeks and keep in mind that tax incentives artificially inflated sales figures in the first half of last year as buyers rushed to make their purchases before the credits expired .
Condominium percentage in contract actually increased across the board since our report two weeks ago. Overall market up from 34.92% in contract on May 31 to 36.71% on June 14.
$0-$999k price range up to 38.19% in contract from 36.58% two weeks ago, and even the upper-end condo's eked out a gain, with 14% in contract compared to the May 31 figure of 5.56% for condo's over $1million. YTD condo units sold on June 15 were 219, 1.3% less than the year-ago figure of 222 units. Two weeks ago, we were at -1%. This also bears watching, but so far, we believe there is a considerable amount of activity in the Marin County real estate market and are encouraged by the number of open escrows at local brokerages and positive agent reports about local market activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Some concern this week about the ending, June 30th, of the Federal Reserve injection of cash into the financial system, known as Quantitative Easing. The Fed has supplied the financial markets with some $600 Billion in cash liquidity since the beginning of this (2nd) phase of the program in November, 2010. Stock market jittery. Many different opinions on what will happen next. Some analysts predicting the government will be forced to support the economy with a third round of Quantitative easing before too long.
Two weeks ago, in the cold and rain, we wondered if spring would ever come. Yes, there had been a few nice days, but always a return to the rain After over seven months of cold, windy, rainy weather, we had had enough. Now, suddenly it is summer and the weather is beautiful. And the real estate market seems just like that--- a few bright spots surrounded by pessimism and doubt. Meanwhile, investors continue to snap up a large portion of the available Bay Area residential real estate--- over 21% in May, according to the most recent DataQuick monthly report, dated June 15. http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110615.aspx These investors know a good deal when they see one. Home prices and mortgage rates continue at lows not seen in many years, and, like our recent extended winter, it may seem as if these bargains will go on forever. History tells us they will not. One day we will realize that the recovery has happened. In the interim, many people who formerly found themselves unable to achieve their dream of home ownership will reach out and grab it. Buyers are encouraged to take a serious look at the opportunities presented by this market! Don't wait 'till it's over!
Here in Marin County, sales of Single Family Residences (SFR) holding up pretty well. 29.33% of all SFR's listed on MLS in contract as of June 14, just slightly below the 30.56% when we reported 2 weeks ago. $0-$999K segment down 7/10ths of a point at 38.12%. We are calling this a Sellers' Market, but it is largely a Sellers' Market in name only. Homes that are attractively priced, prepared, and presented are selling, sometimes with multiple offers, but sellers ability to dictate price is still not there in most cases. Upper-end homes continue to be a huge bargain for buyers, and the more upper-end, the better the bargains. Homes over $3million considered a Very Strong Buyers' Market, with only 9.9% of listings in contract on June 14. YTD units sold on June 15 were 799 compared to 805 on the same date last year, down 7/10ths of a point. Up until May 31, this number had been in positive terrtory for the year. Let's watch this trend carefully in coming weeks and keep in mind that tax incentives artificially inflated sales figures in the first half of last year as buyers rushed to make their purchases before the credits expired .
Condominium percentage in contract actually increased across the board since our report two weeks ago. Overall market up from 34.92% in contract on May 31 to 36.71% on June 14.
$0-$999k price range up to 38.19% in contract from 36.58% two weeks ago, and even the upper-end condo's eked out a gain, with 14% in contract compared to the May 31 figure of 5.56% for condo's over $1million. YTD condo units sold on June 15 were 219, 1.3% less than the year-ago figure of 222 units. Two weeks ago, we were at -1%. This also bears watching, but so far, we believe there is a considerable amount of activity in the Marin County real estate market and are encouraged by the number of open escrows at local brokerages and positive agent reports about local market activity.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, May 23, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 5.22.11
Hello Everyone,
La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in its monthly report dated May 16, fretted over Bay-Area sales declines in both unit sales volume and median price. But the article also cited encouraging statistics regarding decreasing foreclosure sales, sales to investors, all-cash buyers sales, as well as increased availability of adjustable rate and "jumbo" mortgages. The really good news for Marin County homeowners came in a chart at the end of the article. That table showed Marin County sales volume for April down only 1.6% from April of 2010, only about half the Bay Area average. Also, according to the index, the Marin County median sales price actually inceased .2 percent compared to the 2.7 percent average Bay Area decline for the period putting Marin in top position of the nine-county area.
Read the full article at: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110516.aspx
After a torrid two months, the Marin County real estate market paused to catch its breath for the last couple of weeks. Local offices caught up on their paperwork and wondered what was going to happen next. Conversations with local agents reveal that agents and their clients are working really hard to put deals together, with buyers often making several offers on prospective homes before being successful. Multiple offers still with us, but mostly in much less dramatic fashion than in the years when appraisers were rubber-stamping deals on a regular basis. Agents, Buyers, and Sellers all acutely aware that if a loan is involved in the purchase transaction, the home will have to appraise at contract value for the deal to go through. Lots of all-cash deals still around though and these are not subject to appraisal. A recent story about a listing in the mid-$1million range that had 7 offers and went more than $200 K over asking price is a case in point of what can happen with all-cash deals. Still, this is the exception rather than the rule, and sellers are advised, as always, to focus their attention on preparation, pricing, presentation, and good-faith negotiation. Best source of information and advice for this is still a local REALTOR who is experienced in your market.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending May 17, SFR listings had increased slightly, from 1087 to 1118. 334 of these, or 30.77% were in contract on that date, just slightly more than the 30.45% recorded on May 3. The under-$1million price range had 646 available units county-wide, and 253 of them, or about 39% were in contract on May 17, just about the same as last time, indicating this price range is just a bit of a sellers' market. $1million-$2million and $2million-$3million price ranges holding their own at 21.79% and 23.33% in contract, respectively. Both solid buyers' markets, and both representing great opportunities for buyers shopping for value in upper-end homes. Year to date unit sales at 628 on May 17, compared to the year-ago figure of 599, or up 5%. This, in spite of the fact that last year's buyer tax incentives are no longer with us.
Condo's
On May 17, there were 348 active condominium listings in the County, an increase of 22 units over the May 3 figure. 122 of these, or 35.06% were in contract, an increase from 32.52% at last report. 333 of the above units were priced under $1million. Of these, 36.04% were in contract, putting the category just into sellers' market territory. Just enough to make sellers feel good about their prospects, but not enough to be a pricing advantage. Condo pricing still very competitive. Buyers continue to shop for attractive deals, but they will buy when they perceive value. Condo YTD units sold at 179 on May 17, virtually unchanged from the year-ago figure of 178.
Everyone waiting to see what the next few weeks bring for Marin County real estate. Deals starting to come in again in the last few days, renewing optimism about the prospects for continued improvement during the second half of the year. We will know soon enough!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. see my website for access to spreadsheets
http://www.fredanlyan.com
La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in its monthly report dated May 16, fretted over Bay-Area sales declines in both unit sales volume and median price. But the article also cited encouraging statistics regarding decreasing foreclosure sales, sales to investors, all-cash buyers sales, as well as increased availability of adjustable rate and "jumbo" mortgages. The really good news for Marin County homeowners came in a chart at the end of the article. That table showed Marin County sales volume for April down only 1.6% from April of 2010, only about half the Bay Area average. Also, according to the index, the Marin County median sales price actually inceased .2 percent compared to the 2.7 percent average Bay Area decline for the period putting Marin in top position of the nine-county area.
Read the full article at: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110516.aspx
After a torrid two months, the Marin County real estate market paused to catch its breath for the last couple of weeks. Local offices caught up on their paperwork and wondered what was going to happen next. Conversations with local agents reveal that agents and their clients are working really hard to put deals together, with buyers often making several offers on prospective homes before being successful. Multiple offers still with us, but mostly in much less dramatic fashion than in the years when appraisers were rubber-stamping deals on a regular basis. Agents, Buyers, and Sellers all acutely aware that if a loan is involved in the purchase transaction, the home will have to appraise at contract value for the deal to go through. Lots of all-cash deals still around though and these are not subject to appraisal. A recent story about a listing in the mid-$1million range that had 7 offers and went more than $200 K over asking price is a case in point of what can happen with all-cash deals. Still, this is the exception rather than the rule, and sellers are advised, as always, to focus their attention on preparation, pricing, presentation, and good-faith negotiation. Best source of information and advice for this is still a local REALTOR who is experienced in your market.
Single Family Residences (SFR)
For the period ending May 17, SFR listings had increased slightly, from 1087 to 1118. 334 of these, or 30.77% were in contract on that date, just slightly more than the 30.45% recorded on May 3. The under-$1million price range had 646 available units county-wide, and 253 of them, or about 39% were in contract on May 17, just about the same as last time, indicating this price range is just a bit of a sellers' market. $1million-$2million and $2million-$3million price ranges holding their own at 21.79% and 23.33% in contract, respectively. Both solid buyers' markets, and both representing great opportunities for buyers shopping for value in upper-end homes. Year to date unit sales at 628 on May 17, compared to the year-ago figure of 599, or up 5%. This, in spite of the fact that last year's buyer tax incentives are no longer with us.
Condo's
On May 17, there were 348 active condominium listings in the County, an increase of 22 units over the May 3 figure. 122 of these, or 35.06% were in contract, an increase from 32.52% at last report. 333 of the above units were priced under $1million. Of these, 36.04% were in contract, putting the category just into sellers' market territory. Just enough to make sellers feel good about their prospects, but not enough to be a pricing advantage. Condo pricing still very competitive. Buyers continue to shop for attractive deals, but they will buy when they perceive value. Condo YTD units sold at 179 on May 17, virtually unchanged from the year-ago figure of 178.
Everyone waiting to see what the next few weeks bring for Marin County real estate. Deals starting to come in again in the last few days, renewing optimism about the prospects for continued improvement during the second half of the year. We will know soon enough!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. see my website for access to spreadsheets
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 5.8.2011
Hello Everyone,
Well, it sure seems as if 2011 is streaking by us with the throttle stuck on "afterburner". Hard to believe it is May already, but the sunny weather is certainly welcome, and the buyers are out in droves. Agents report open houses well-attended, and local offices seeing large numbers of open escrows. At some locations, admins having trouble keeping up with all the open files--- not a bad problem to have after going through the last couple of years!
Coldwell Banker MarketQuest report for April shows accepted offers for April at 291 for Single Family Residences (SFR) and 86 for Condo's. This compares to April, 2010's 170/44 and 2009's 141/47, so there is significantly more activity in this year's market. The April ratio of accepted offers to new listings for SFR's was 107% and for Condo's, it was 89.6%. For SFR's, this represents the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. For condo's, it is the highest since December of '09, which came in at 102%. We expect these kinds of numbers more during the Holidays, when folks are taking their homes off the market as much as they are putting new ones on, but in the spring, with growing inventory, it is a very favorable sign! As we have reported these numbers have been favorable and growing in recent months.
Mortgage rates, which had been rising, have trended down in the past few weeks, extending the opportunity for potential buyers chance to purchase their dream home at a price they could only dream of until recently! MarketQuest, confirming what we have read in recent articles shows the average price of homes sold in April down from March levels, for both SFR' s and Condo's. This a bit confusing, since the same report shows 3 month $/sq ft. prices up for both categories. SFR April level at $429/SF vs. March's $415. For Condo's, the April number was $309/SF vs. March's $297. Upon further investigation through Marin County MLS listing history, the average Condo or SFR sold in April was smaller than in March! The average size of an SFR sold in April was 2,155 SF compared to 2,302 in March, while the average size of a Condo sold in April was 1,294 SF compared to 1,324 in March. This certainly helps explain the decrease in selling prices from March to April.
City-by-City Report out this week shows that of the 13 towns and cities covered, 4 increased their percentage in contract, 6 decreased, and 3 remained essentially unchanged. Fairfax at the top of the heap, with 40% in contract. Novato next at 39+%. Corte Madera close behind at 38%. Larkspur and Greenbrae both hanging in nicely at about 35% and San Rafael just above 34%. Belvedere back down to 6%, with only 2 of 33 listed properties in contract as of May 3. A great opportunity for high-end buyers!
Wishing all Mothers the very best of everything on this beautiful Mothers' Day!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Well, it sure seems as if 2011 is streaking by us with the throttle stuck on "afterburner". Hard to believe it is May already, but the sunny weather is certainly welcome, and the buyers are out in droves. Agents report open houses well-attended, and local offices seeing large numbers of open escrows. At some locations, admins having trouble keeping up with all the open files--- not a bad problem to have after going through the last couple of years!
Coldwell Banker MarketQuest report for April shows accepted offers for April at 291 for Single Family Residences (SFR) and 86 for Condo's. This compares to April, 2010's 170/44 and 2009's 141/47, so there is significantly more activity in this year's market. The April ratio of accepted offers to new listings for SFR's was 107% and for Condo's, it was 89.6%. For SFR's, this represents the highest level in the 24 months covered by the report. For condo's, it is the highest since December of '09, which came in at 102%. We expect these kinds of numbers more during the Holidays, when folks are taking their homes off the market as much as they are putting new ones on, but in the spring, with growing inventory, it is a very favorable sign! As we have reported these numbers have been favorable and growing in recent months.
Mortgage rates, which had been rising, have trended down in the past few weeks, extending the opportunity for potential buyers chance to purchase their dream home at a price they could only dream of until recently! MarketQuest, confirming what we have read in recent articles shows the average price of homes sold in April down from March levels, for both SFR' s and Condo's. This a bit confusing, since the same report shows 3 month $/sq ft. prices up for both categories. SFR April level at $429/SF vs. March's $415. For Condo's, the April number was $309/SF vs. March's $297. Upon further investigation through Marin County MLS listing history, the average Condo or SFR sold in April was smaller than in March! The average size of an SFR sold in April was 2,155 SF compared to 2,302 in March, while the average size of a Condo sold in April was 1,294 SF compared to 1,324 in March. This certainly helps explain the decrease in selling prices from March to April.
City-by-City Report out this week shows that of the 13 towns and cities covered, 4 increased their percentage in contract, 6 decreased, and 3 remained essentially unchanged. Fairfax at the top of the heap, with 40% in contract. Novato next at 39+%. Corte Madera close behind at 38%. Larkspur and Greenbrae both hanging in nicely at about 35% and San Rafael just above 34%. Belvedere back down to 6%, with only 2 of 33 listed properties in contract as of May 3. A great opportunity for high-end buyers!
Wishing all Mothers the very best of everything on this beautiful Mothers' Day!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com
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