Hello Everyone,
October 16, 2009, Dow Jones closes at 9995, pulling back slightly from Thursday's 1-year high close of 10,062. Marin IJ pours cold water on the nascent flames with front page headline "Tough month for Marin real estate". The article compares September's real estate sales to those of August. A more appropriate comparison would be to September of 2008. That comparison would show activity up considerably while prices are admittedly down due to sales of bank-owned property and the sluggishness of the upper end of the market. IJ article notes "---Marin bucked an upward trend in home sales elsewhere in the Bay area". According to an October 15 article by La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick information services, the average sales volume decline in the Bay Area comparing Sept 08 to Sept. 09 is 8.4%, while Marin County declined only 3.5%. The article states that the median price decline for the area was -8.8% while Marin declined only 6.5%. Full text of the article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091015.aspx
NRT MarketQuest reveals the following statistics:
Single Family Residences: Accepted offers in Sept '08=143, in August '09, 207, and in Sept '09, 244. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings in Sept '08 at 49% while Sept '09 at 80.8%. Sales down a bit from Sept '09's 149 units to this September's 143 units.
Condo's: Accepted offers in Sept '08=58, in August '09, 70, and in Sept '09, 89. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings in Sept '08 at 55.2% while Sept '09 at 106%. Sales down a bit from Sept '09's 55 units to this September's 50 units. Sold median price of condo's at $395K in September of '09 actually up over both August '09 at $375K and Sept '08 at $325K.
These facts do not seem to warrant front page doom and gloom. Under- $1million sector of the market at a very robust 41.25% in contract for Single Family Residences and 43.71% in contract for condo's. The big question is when sales in the upper end of the market will re-ignite. This segment is mostly SFR's, as very few condo's in this price range, usually fewer than 20 units at any given time. Answer revolves around availability of "Jumbo" loans which have been scarce since the financial meltdown last year. Major opportunity still exists for all-cash buyers of high-end homes as well as those with large down-payments and exemplary credit/earnings.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see: http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, October 19, 2009
Sunday, October 4, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics
10.4.09
Hello Everyone,
Unemployment up, Dow Jones down. October 2 Wall Street Journal runs a headline on the "Marketplace" front page: "Cruel September for Car Makers" citing sales drops of of 45% for GM and 42% for Chrysler following the termination of the "Clunker" rebate program. An article in the "Money and Investing" section of the same paper announces "Tax Free Bonds Reach a 40-Year Low", goes on to cite high demand and limited supply and predicts the trend won't end anytime soon. Just below that, another article titled "Mortgage Rates Below 5%"--- the lowest since last May 28, according to the article. Fed Open Market Committee on Sep 23 announces its decision to hold interest rates at historic lows but concerns about inflation spark speculation that this party won't last forever. Everyone hedging their bets, not knowing for sure what will happen next.
What we know for sure is that there will be an economic recovery. What we don't know is the timing. Lots of talk among buyers and sellers and even among real estate professionals about a possible next wave of bank-owned property hitting the market and about whether the housing crisis that began in the sub-prime markets will bleed over into the upper end. Uncertainty is the mother of opportunity. Many investors jumping in to the real estate market along with those just looking for a home they can afford. Some still waiting on the sidelines waiting for a better deal. This may or may not materialize. As a friend of mine is fond of saying "better is the enemy of good"!
What went up and what went down:
Marin County "City-by-City" report shows out of 13 communities monitored, 8 increased their percentage in contract since last month, 4 declined, and 1 remained about the same. Sausalito, Belvedere and Tiburon offering the best opportunities right now with 14.1%,12.8%, and 11.1%, respectively, in contract.
Marin County Single Family Residences showing fairly stable percentages in contract across all price ranges with only minor changes. Inventory up slightly from 1199 at last report to 1213 units on Sept 28. With the exception of certain very desirable properties, homes in the $2million-plus range continue to offer major opportunities to well-heeled buyers. Overall YTD units sold at 1119 on Sept 29 vs. 1253 on the same date last year, or -10.62%---- another increase from last report's -11.3%, so headed in an encouraging direction.
Condo's inventory down 1 unit from 324 to 323 while 4 additional units in contract lifted the overall percentage in contract modestly from 40.43% to 41.8%. Average Days on Market for Marin Condo's at 116 and average sales price at $375,522 compared to 105 and $504,385 last year at the same time. Much of the price disparity a product of market-mix, with lots of lower-priced bank-owned properties populating the lower end of the market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Unemployment up, Dow Jones down. October 2 Wall Street Journal runs a headline on the "Marketplace" front page: "Cruel September for Car Makers" citing sales drops of of 45% for GM and 42% for Chrysler following the termination of the "Clunker" rebate program. An article in the "Money and Investing" section of the same paper announces "Tax Free Bonds Reach a 40-Year Low", goes on to cite high demand and limited supply and predicts the trend won't end anytime soon. Just below that, another article titled "Mortgage Rates Below 5%"--- the lowest since last May 28, according to the article. Fed Open Market Committee on Sep 23 announces its decision to hold interest rates at historic lows but concerns about inflation spark speculation that this party won't last forever. Everyone hedging their bets, not knowing for sure what will happen next.
What we know for sure is that there will be an economic recovery. What we don't know is the timing. Lots of talk among buyers and sellers and even among real estate professionals about a possible next wave of bank-owned property hitting the market and about whether the housing crisis that began in the sub-prime markets will bleed over into the upper end. Uncertainty is the mother of opportunity. Many investors jumping in to the real estate market along with those just looking for a home they can afford. Some still waiting on the sidelines waiting for a better deal. This may or may not materialize. As a friend of mine is fond of saying "better is the enemy of good"!
What went up and what went down:
Marin County "City-by-City" report shows out of 13 communities monitored, 8 increased their percentage in contract since last month, 4 declined, and 1 remained about the same. Sausalito, Belvedere and Tiburon offering the best opportunities right now with 14.1%,12.8%, and 11.1%, respectively, in contract.
Marin County Single Family Residences showing fairly stable percentages in contract across all price ranges with only minor changes. Inventory up slightly from 1199 at last report to 1213 units on Sept 28. With the exception of certain very desirable properties, homes in the $2million-plus range continue to offer major opportunities to well-heeled buyers. Overall YTD units sold at 1119 on Sept 29 vs. 1253 on the same date last year, or -10.62%---- another increase from last report's -11.3%, so headed in an encouraging direction.
Condo's inventory down 1 unit from 324 to 323 while 4 additional units in contract lifted the overall percentage in contract modestly from 40.43% to 41.8%. Average Days on Market for Marin Condo's at 116 and average sales price at $375,522 compared to 105 and $504,385 last year at the same time. Much of the price disparity a product of market-mix, with lots of lower-priced bank-owned properties populating the lower end of the market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 9.15.09
Hello Everyone,
Dow Jones closed on Friday,September 18 above 9800--- a pretty good week !
LaJolla, CA-based MDA Data Quick ran the an article headed:
Bay Area August home sales and median price fall
saying that although Bay Area sales fell August compared to July, they were still 4% higher than in August of 2008, a trend they noted has now continued for 12 consecutive months. Blaming the drop on "a thinner inventory of distressed properties for sale, (and) fewer 'bargains' ", the article went on to quote MDA Data Quick President, John Walsh---- "people are still concerned about job security, and about how many foreclosures might yet hit the market. " "There are ongoing reports of mortgage delinquencies rising, yet the number of homes being foreclosed on has trended down lately. It’s bred a lot of uncertainty among the pundits and the public about how many more foreclosures are coming, when they’ll hit, and what impact they’ll have on prices.”
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090917.aspx
Here in Marin County, inventories of both single family homes (SFR) and condo's increased modestly.
Numbers of newly-listed SFR's were up considerably from last report at 140 vs. 98, while "sold" listings dropped from 89 to 51, most likely reflecting the pause from the Labor Day holiday, its anticipation and aftermath. Contingent listings doing reasonably well at 95 compared to 105 at last report. Inventory of SFR's overall at 1199 compared to last report's 1156 with percentage in contract up again to 27.69% overall and up to a very strong 40.13% for properties under $1million. In fact, the percentage in contract of every SFR price point increased with the exception of the over-$3million segment which declined from 6.31% to 4.5% on the strength of only a two listing change. Translation--- sample size too small to be statistically significant. Year-to-date (YTD) SFR units sold at 1048 compared to the same time last year when they were at 1181. Difference -11.3%, a bit more negative than last report's -10.46% figure.
Condominiums new listings at 27 compared to 32 at last report, a slight drop. Sold listings holding steady for the period at 19, pendings also at 19, and contingent's dropping from 39 to 21 perhaps reflecting the "thinner inventory of distressed properties" discussed above. Total condo listings dropped slightly from 331 to 324 and percentage in contract also dropping a bit from 42.9% to 40.43% overall and from 44.65% to 42.39% in the under-$1million segment. Still putting forth a pretty good showing.
Number of condo's sold YTD down again and now at -2% compared to a year ago at 320 vs. 327 in '08 at this time--- this after several months at the beginning of the year with a large sales lead. Condo market which was the epicenter of the REO market has cooled from its earlier frenzied pace.
Lots of talk in the real estate community of multiple offers, but with a big difference from previous markets. Even with multiples, many properties not going much (if at all) over asking price. Of course there are always exceptions for prime properties. One story had a multi-million dollar home selling at a substantial profit after only a relatively brief period of ownership. Most owners will do well not to count on this kind of "bounce" but to carefully price, prepare and present their properties using the advice of an experienced local real estate professional familiar with their market.
More next time. (also, watch for the monthly city-by-city report)
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit my website at http://www.fredanlyan.com
Dow Jones closed on Friday,September 18 above 9800--- a pretty good week !
LaJolla, CA-based MDA Data Quick ran the an article headed:
Bay Area August home sales and median price fall
saying that although Bay Area sales fell August compared to July, they were still 4% higher than in August of 2008, a trend they noted has now continued for 12 consecutive months. Blaming the drop on "a thinner inventory of distressed properties for sale, (and) fewer 'bargains' ", the article went on to quote MDA Data Quick President, John Walsh---- "people are still concerned about job security, and about how many foreclosures might yet hit the market. " "There are ongoing reports of mortgage delinquencies rising, yet the number of homes being foreclosed on has trended down lately. It’s bred a lot of uncertainty among the pundits and the public about how many more foreclosures are coming, when they’ll hit, and what impact they’ll have on prices.”
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090917.aspx
Here in Marin County, inventories of both single family homes (SFR) and condo's increased modestly.
Numbers of newly-listed SFR's were up considerably from last report at 140 vs. 98, while "sold" listings dropped from 89 to 51, most likely reflecting the pause from the Labor Day holiday, its anticipation and aftermath. Contingent listings doing reasonably well at 95 compared to 105 at last report. Inventory of SFR's overall at 1199 compared to last report's 1156 with percentage in contract up again to 27.69% overall and up to a very strong 40.13% for properties under $1million. In fact, the percentage in contract of every SFR price point increased with the exception of the over-$3million segment which declined from 6.31% to 4.5% on the strength of only a two listing change. Translation--- sample size too small to be statistically significant. Year-to-date (YTD) SFR units sold at 1048 compared to the same time last year when they were at 1181. Difference -11.3%, a bit more negative than last report's -10.46% figure.
Condominiums new listings at 27 compared to 32 at last report, a slight drop. Sold listings holding steady for the period at 19, pendings also at 19, and contingent's dropping from 39 to 21 perhaps reflecting the "thinner inventory of distressed properties" discussed above. Total condo listings dropped slightly from 331 to 324 and percentage in contract also dropping a bit from 42.9% to 40.43% overall and from 44.65% to 42.39% in the under-$1million segment. Still putting forth a pretty good showing.
Number of condo's sold YTD down again and now at -2% compared to a year ago at 320 vs. 327 in '08 at this time--- this after several months at the beginning of the year with a large sales lead. Condo market which was the epicenter of the REO market has cooled from its earlier frenzied pace.
Lots of talk in the real estate community of multiple offers, but with a big difference from previous markets. Even with multiples, many properties not going much (if at all) over asking price. Of course there are always exceptions for prime properties. One story had a multi-million dollar home selling at a substantial profit after only a relatively brief period of ownership. Most owners will do well not to count on this kind of "bounce" but to carefully price, prepare and present their properties using the advice of an experienced local real estate professional familiar with their market.
More next time. (also, watch for the monthly city-by-city report)
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please visit my website at http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, September 6, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 09.01.2009
Hello Everyone,
Hard to believe it is almost fall. Where did the summer go?
Dow Jones ended the week down just a bit over 1% after losing over 180 points on Monday and gaining back about half of that on Friday. Investors cautiously dipping their toes back into the market but watching the economic news carefully.
Here in Marin County, the City by City report, out this week shows most cities and towns trading in essentially the same range in August as they did in July. San Anselmo slipped a bit to 17.35% in contract vs. July's 23.4% while Fairfax roared ahead, accelerating from 26.67% all the way to 36.96% in contract. San Rafael and Novato still lead the County in percentage in contract with 34.44% and 49.56% respectively. Yes that is correct, nearly half the listings in Novato were in contract as of September 1!
Single Family Residences overall at 25.61% in contract, down a couple of points since the last report-- basically a balanced market. Homes in the $0-$999K price range at 37% in contract overall, much of this reflected in the previously mentioned Novato and San Rafael markets which weight the averages. Homes over $2million still an attractive opportunity for buyers at 10.92% in contract for $2-$3million homes and 6.31% for homes over $3 million. Accepted offers on SFR's at 291, or 29.4% of inventory vs. last year's 157 or 13.9% of inventory (NRT MarketQuest) ----- shows a much more active market. YTD units sold show continued improvement with 1002 units sold as of Sept. 1 vs. 1119 at the same time last year, or -10.46%. This an increase from -12.5% at last report. Let's see if this continues.
Condo's overall at 42.9% in contract, up over 4 percentage points since the last report. Condo's under $999 K (all but 13 of active listings) doing even better at 44.65%--- either way a strong sellers' market. Multiple offers back but often don't go over listing price or if so not much over. Average sold price of condo's in the County at $369,887 YTD vs $529,076 last year at the same time. As of August 31, accepted offers at 291, or 29.4% of inventory vs. last year's 157 or 13.9% of inventory (NRT MarketQuest) ----- also shows accelerating market activity. But YTD units sold still continuing to lose steam with 300 units sold as of Sept 1 vs. 301 last year, or essentially even. This after having had a substantial lead for most of the prior months.
La Jolla, California-based MDA DataQuick, in an article dated August 21 noted the local real estate market's improved prospects with the headline:
"Bay Area home sales hit 4-year high; median price up again"
The article quotes DataQuick president John Walsh, saying "----we continue to see the market moving gradually back toward a more normal balance of sales across all price ranges. The high end of the market finally has a pulse and that has led to a swift rise in the median sale price. It's the opposite of what we saw two years ago, when the credit crunch slammed the brakes on jumbo lending and sales of more expensive homes screeched to a halt.-------"
Full text of the article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090821.aspx
More next time-----
Until then, have a happy and safe Labor Day Weekend.
Best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hard to believe it is almost fall. Where did the summer go?
Dow Jones ended the week down just a bit over 1% after losing over 180 points on Monday and gaining back about half of that on Friday. Investors cautiously dipping their toes back into the market but watching the economic news carefully.
Here in Marin County, the City by City report, out this week shows most cities and towns trading in essentially the same range in August as they did in July. San Anselmo slipped a bit to 17.35% in contract vs. July's 23.4% while Fairfax roared ahead, accelerating from 26.67% all the way to 36.96% in contract. San Rafael and Novato still lead the County in percentage in contract with 34.44% and 49.56% respectively. Yes that is correct, nearly half the listings in Novato were in contract as of September 1!
Single Family Residences overall at 25.61% in contract, down a couple of points since the last report-- basically a balanced market. Homes in the $0-$999K price range at 37% in contract overall, much of this reflected in the previously mentioned Novato and San Rafael markets which weight the averages. Homes over $2million still an attractive opportunity for buyers at 10.92% in contract for $2-$3million homes and 6.31% for homes over $3 million. Accepted offers on SFR's at 291, or 29.4% of inventory vs. last year's 157 or 13.9% of inventory (NRT MarketQuest) ----- shows a much more active market. YTD units sold show continued improvement with 1002 units sold as of Sept. 1 vs. 1119 at the same time last year, or -10.46%. This an increase from -12.5% at last report. Let's see if this continues.
Condo's overall at 42.9% in contract, up over 4 percentage points since the last report. Condo's under $999 K (all but 13 of active listings) doing even better at 44.65%--- either way a strong sellers' market. Multiple offers back but often don't go over listing price or if so not much over. Average sold price of condo's in the County at $369,887 YTD vs $529,076 last year at the same time. As of August 31, accepted offers at 291, or 29.4% of inventory vs. last year's 157 or 13.9% of inventory (NRT MarketQuest) ----- also shows accelerating market activity. But YTD units sold still continuing to lose steam with 300 units sold as of Sept 1 vs. 301 last year, or essentially even. This after having had a substantial lead for most of the prior months.
La Jolla, California-based MDA DataQuick, in an article dated August 21 noted the local real estate market's improved prospects with the headline:
"Bay Area home sales hit 4-year high; median price up again"
The article quotes DataQuick president John Walsh, saying "----we continue to see the market moving gradually back toward a more normal balance of sales across all price ranges. The high end of the market finally has a pulse and that has led to a swift rise in the median sale price. It's the opposite of what we saw two years ago, when the credit crunch slammed the brakes on jumbo lending and sales of more expensive homes screeched to a halt.-------"
Full text of the article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090821.aspx
More next time-----
Until then, have a happy and safe Labor Day Weekend.
Best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, August 16, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 8.16.2009
For access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
A very short report this week due to vacation. Regular report will resume 1st week of September. Until then wishing you all a few more weeks of happy and healthy summer activities and celebrations!
Single Family Residences. (SFR) Inventory down slightly and percentage in contract up in almost all price ranges. SFR's in general continuing to do well at over 27% in contract, and homes under $1million still hot at over 38% in contract, an increase of about 1percentage point since last report . Of course this varies considerably by area, neighborhood, condition etc. Particularly notable is a pick-up in activity on upper-end homes'. May be an early sign of recovery. We will watch this in the coming weeks to see if it signals a market shift for this segment. Overall SFR year-to-date units sold at 878 as of August 12 vs. 1004 last year at the same time, or -12.5%, a continued improvement from last report's -14.3%.
Condo inventory up by just a handfull of units, and percentage in contract around 38%, continues to reflect strong demand by investors and individuals looking for homes. Signs in recent weeks that this torrid market segment may be cooling just a bit continue as YTD units sold now at 267 as of August 12 vs. 264 last year, or up 1%. Has been slipping every week for several reports now. Lenders reportedly being quite particular about ratio of owner-occupied units to rental units in each condo development. A good statistic for prospective buyers to check out early in the game.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
A very short report this week due to vacation. Regular report will resume 1st week of September. Until then wishing you all a few more weeks of happy and healthy summer activities and celebrations!
Single Family Residences. (SFR) Inventory down slightly and percentage in contract up in almost all price ranges. SFR's in general continuing to do well at over 27% in contract, and homes under $1million still hot at over 38% in contract, an increase of about 1percentage point since last report . Of course this varies considerably by area, neighborhood, condition etc. Particularly notable is a pick-up in activity on upper-end homes'. May be an early sign of recovery. We will watch this in the coming weeks to see if it signals a market shift for this segment. Overall SFR year-to-date units sold at 878 as of August 12 vs. 1004 last year at the same time, or -12.5%, a continued improvement from last report's -14.3%.
Condo inventory up by just a handfull of units, and percentage in contract around 38%, continues to reflect strong demand by investors and individuals looking for homes. Signs in recent weeks that this torrid market segment may be cooling just a bit continue as YTD units sold now at 267 as of August 12 vs. 264 last year, or up 1%. Has been slipping every week for several reports now. Lenders reportedly being quite particular about ratio of owner-occupied units to rental units in each condo development. A good statistic for prospective buyers to check out early in the game.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, August 2, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 7.31.2009
For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Economic news upbeat this week with the Wednesday (7/29) Wall Street Journal featuring a front page headline "Home Prices Rise Across U.S.", going on to say "Home prices in major U.S. cities registered the first monthly gain in nearly three years----" The Saturday (8/1) WSJ front page flashed a headline "U.S. Economy Pulls Out of Tailspin" above an article that begins "The U.S. economy came out of its tailspin in the second quarter and may be poised to resume growing-----" Also front page news in the "Money and Investing" section of that same edition was an article titled "Dow's Month Was the Best Since 2002" referring to the July performance of the widely-followed index. The piece began "Stocks closed out a blistering month------"
Bottom line is media are starting to pick up on the same themes we have been observing and reporting for months. Our opinion is that recovery will still take a while with more ups and downs, but the worst is probably over.
Monthly City-by-City report still shows plenty of buyers' opportunities here in Marin County, especially in higher-priced homes. Jumbo mortgages still challenging. One such sale closed last week after four months in escrow while buyer jumped through lender hoops. For cash buyers or those with large (over 25%) down payments, now is a great time to pick up bargains in luxury homes. Sellers still not giving away property but there are great deals available. Corte Madera, San Rafael and Novato have the highest percentage in contract as of 7/31, with 30.4%, 35.18%, and 48.97% in contract, respectively. Holding down the bottom rungs of the ladder are Belvedere, at 10% in contract, Tiburon at 11.7% and Mill Valley at 17.02%. These are very popular places to live and represent great opportunities.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory down 3 units from last report at 1207. Overall percentage in contract is 26.35%, which I am still calling "balanced". The under-$900k market, however, is hot, hot, hot at 37.52% in contract. Above $1million, opportunity increases in direct proportion to price with $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.1%, $2million to $2.9million at 10.57%, and above $3million at only 3.7%. According to NRT MarketQuest, figures for the month of July (as of the 29th) showed the ratio of accepted offers to new listings at over 110% meaning that homes are selling faster than new listings become available. Year to date units sold at 791 as of 7/28 vs. 923 at the same time last year, or a decrease in YTD units sold of 14.3%. This is actually an improvement over the last report when the number was -14.7%. Basic idea: Sales are still behind last year but interest seems to be increasing substantially!
Condo's in the County cooling just a bit from their earlier torrid pace with overall percentage in contract down a notch from 38% at last report to 37% on July 28. $0-$999k price range (all but 14 units) at 38.66% in contract compared to 39.62% at last report. YTD units sold at 247 as of 7/28 compared to 233 a year ago at this time or up 5.66%. This represents a continued decrease and compares to a +11.9% at last report. Condo sales, which were red-hot for the first half of the year seem to be taking a bit of a break, but remember, 38% in contract is still a strong market. Sellers need to be cautious, however, since pricing is still critical and over-priced listings will sit.
Hotsheet for the period 7/15 to 7/28 showed the flip-side of current market activity with 60 SFR and 15 Condo listings withdrawn or temporarily off the market during the period. Best recipe for success--- an experienced local REALTOR, a realistic attitude regarding current market pricing, excellent preparation and presentation and skillful marketing.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Economic news upbeat this week with the Wednesday (7/29) Wall Street Journal featuring a front page headline "Home Prices Rise Across U.S.", going on to say "Home prices in major U.S. cities registered the first monthly gain in nearly three years----" The Saturday (8/1) WSJ front page flashed a headline "U.S. Economy Pulls Out of Tailspin" above an article that begins "The U.S. economy came out of its tailspin in the second quarter and may be poised to resume growing-----" Also front page news in the "Money and Investing" section of that same edition was an article titled "Dow's Month Was the Best Since 2002" referring to the July performance of the widely-followed index. The piece began "Stocks closed out a blistering month------"
Bottom line is media are starting to pick up on the same themes we have been observing and reporting for months. Our opinion is that recovery will still take a while with more ups and downs, but the worst is probably over.
Monthly City-by-City report still shows plenty of buyers' opportunities here in Marin County, especially in higher-priced homes. Jumbo mortgages still challenging. One such sale closed last week after four months in escrow while buyer jumped through lender hoops. For cash buyers or those with large (over 25%) down payments, now is a great time to pick up bargains in luxury homes. Sellers still not giving away property but there are great deals available. Corte Madera, San Rafael and Novato have the highest percentage in contract as of 7/31, with 30.4%, 35.18%, and 48.97% in contract, respectively. Holding down the bottom rungs of the ladder are Belvedere, at 10% in contract, Tiburon at 11.7% and Mill Valley at 17.02%. These are very popular places to live and represent great opportunities.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory down 3 units from last report at 1207. Overall percentage in contract is 26.35%, which I am still calling "balanced". The under-$900k market, however, is hot, hot, hot at 37.52% in contract. Above $1million, opportunity increases in direct proportion to price with $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.1%, $2million to $2.9million at 10.57%, and above $3million at only 3.7%. According to NRT MarketQuest, figures for the month of July (as of the 29th) showed the ratio of accepted offers to new listings at over 110% meaning that homes are selling faster than new listings become available. Year to date units sold at 791 as of 7/28 vs. 923 at the same time last year, or a decrease in YTD units sold of 14.3%. This is actually an improvement over the last report when the number was -14.7%. Basic idea: Sales are still behind last year but interest seems to be increasing substantially!
Condo's in the County cooling just a bit from their earlier torrid pace with overall percentage in contract down a notch from 38% at last report to 37% on July 28. $0-$999k price range (all but 14 units) at 38.66% in contract compared to 39.62% at last report. YTD units sold at 247 as of 7/28 compared to 233 a year ago at this time or up 5.66%. This represents a continued decrease and compares to a +11.9% at last report. Condo sales, which were red-hot for the first half of the year seem to be taking a bit of a break, but remember, 38% in contract is still a strong market. Sellers need to be cautious, however, since pricing is still critical and over-priced listings will sit.
Hotsheet for the period 7/15 to 7/28 showed the flip-side of current market activity with 60 SFR and 15 Condo listings withdrawn or temporarily off the market during the period. Best recipe for success--- an experienced local REALTOR, a realistic attitude regarding current market pricing, excellent preparation and presentation and skillful marketing.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, July 18, 2009
The Anlyan Report Marin County Real Estate Statistics 7.18.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
According to the July 18 Wall Street Journal "The Dow ended the week up 7.3% at 8743.94, taking just five days to recover almost all the 7.4% decline of the previous four weeks-----." The article went on to say this was the strongest weekly gain for the Dow since March. Look for more volatility in stocks in the coming weeks and months, but outlook overall appears hopeful.
Here in Marin County, single family residences (SFR) gained back a bit of ground compared to 2008, with 89 homes sold between June 30 and July 14 vs. only 74 in the same period a year ago. This brought YTD unit sales up to 724 compared to 849 last year at this time or -14.7%. In our report two weeks ago the figure was -18.06% so almost a 20% improvement over the two week period. In spite of this, percentage in contract figures for SFR's slipped slightly in all except the over $3million price range with that increase due to changes in only 3 units so probably not significant. Overall SFR percentage in contract slipped from 26.7% to 25.12%, losing its toehold on "sellers' market" status and drifting back into "balanced" territory. The hot under-$1million segment also cooled just a bit from 39.06% in contract to 37.26%, still technically a strong sellers' market but with not much power behind pricing, sellers still advised to pay careful attention to recent comparable sales, stage well, and go with the flow. Inventory overall down slightly to 1210 units from 1236 at last report.
Condo inventory in the County up 5 units from 321 to 326 since the June 30 report. Condo market still red hot with 38.03% of MLS-listed units in contract as of July 14. In the under-$1million segment, a scorching 40% in contract on that date. YTD units sold slipped again for the second reporting period, but still 11.9% ahead of this time last year with 234 YTD units sold vs. '08's 206 Average price of YTD sold units at $369,173 vs. $538,912 last year at this time. Part of this of course due to price deterioration, but quite a bit of it the result of "market mix", meaning a large percentage of the units on the market are lower-end properties, many of them bank-owned foreclosures. Multiple offers not uncommon in this segment. With more foreclosure activity still to come, opportunity for interested buyers should continue for a while but won't last forever!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
According to the July 18 Wall Street Journal "The Dow ended the week up 7.3% at 8743.94, taking just five days to recover almost all the 7.4% decline of the previous four weeks-----." The article went on to say this was the strongest weekly gain for the Dow since March. Look for more volatility in stocks in the coming weeks and months, but outlook overall appears hopeful.
Here in Marin County, single family residences (SFR) gained back a bit of ground compared to 2008, with 89 homes sold between June 30 and July 14 vs. only 74 in the same period a year ago. This brought YTD unit sales up to 724 compared to 849 last year at this time or -14.7%. In our report two weeks ago the figure was -18.06% so almost a 20% improvement over the two week period. In spite of this, percentage in contract figures for SFR's slipped slightly in all except the over $3million price range with that increase due to changes in only 3 units so probably not significant. Overall SFR percentage in contract slipped from 26.7% to 25.12%, losing its toehold on "sellers' market" status and drifting back into "balanced" territory. The hot under-$1million segment also cooled just a bit from 39.06% in contract to 37.26%, still technically a strong sellers' market but with not much power behind pricing, sellers still advised to pay careful attention to recent comparable sales, stage well, and go with the flow. Inventory overall down slightly to 1210 units from 1236 at last report.
Condo inventory in the County up 5 units from 321 to 326 since the June 30 report. Condo market still red hot with 38.03% of MLS-listed units in contract as of July 14. In the under-$1million segment, a scorching 40% in contract on that date. YTD units sold slipped again for the second reporting period, but still 11.9% ahead of this time last year with 234 YTD units sold vs. '08's 206 Average price of YTD sold units at $369,173 vs. $538,912 last year at this time. Part of this of course due to price deterioration, but quite a bit of it the result of "market mix", meaning a large percentage of the units on the market are lower-end properties, many of them bank-owned foreclosures. Multiple offers not uncommon in this segment. With more foreclosure activity still to come, opportunity for interested buyers should continue for a while but won't last forever!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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