For access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
A very short report this week due to vacation. Regular report will resume 1st week of September. Until then wishing you all a few more weeks of happy and healthy summer activities and celebrations!
Single Family Residences. (SFR) Inventory down slightly and percentage in contract up in almost all price ranges. SFR's in general continuing to do well at over 27% in contract, and homes under $1million still hot at over 38% in contract, an increase of about 1percentage point since last report . Of course this varies considerably by area, neighborhood, condition etc. Particularly notable is a pick-up in activity on upper-end homes'. May be an early sign of recovery. We will watch this in the coming weeks to see if it signals a market shift for this segment. Overall SFR year-to-date units sold at 878 as of August 12 vs. 1004 last year at the same time, or -12.5%, a continued improvement from last report's -14.3%.
Condo inventory up by just a handfull of units, and percentage in contract around 38%, continues to reflect strong demand by investors and individuals looking for homes. Signs in recent weeks that this torrid market segment may be cooling just a bit continue as YTD units sold now at 267 as of August 12 vs. 264 last year, or up 1%. Has been slipping every week for several reports now. Lenders reportedly being quite particular about ratio of owner-occupied units to rental units in each condo development. A good statistic for prospective buyers to check out early in the game.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Sunday, August 2, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 7.31.2009
For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
Economic news upbeat this week with the Wednesday (7/29) Wall Street Journal featuring a front page headline "Home Prices Rise Across U.S.", going on to say "Home prices in major U.S. cities registered the first monthly gain in nearly three years----" The Saturday (8/1) WSJ front page flashed a headline "U.S. Economy Pulls Out of Tailspin" above an article that begins "The U.S. economy came out of its tailspin in the second quarter and may be poised to resume growing-----" Also front page news in the "Money and Investing" section of that same edition was an article titled "Dow's Month Was the Best Since 2002" referring to the July performance of the widely-followed index. The piece began "Stocks closed out a blistering month------"
Bottom line is media are starting to pick up on the same themes we have been observing and reporting for months. Our opinion is that recovery will still take a while with more ups and downs, but the worst is probably over.
Monthly City-by-City report still shows plenty of buyers' opportunities here in Marin County, especially in higher-priced homes. Jumbo mortgages still challenging. One such sale closed last week after four months in escrow while buyer jumped through lender hoops. For cash buyers or those with large (over 25%) down payments, now is a great time to pick up bargains in luxury homes. Sellers still not giving away property but there are great deals available. Corte Madera, San Rafael and Novato have the highest percentage in contract as of 7/31, with 30.4%, 35.18%, and 48.97% in contract, respectively. Holding down the bottom rungs of the ladder are Belvedere, at 10% in contract, Tiburon at 11.7% and Mill Valley at 17.02%. These are very popular places to live and represent great opportunities.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory down 3 units from last report at 1207. Overall percentage in contract is 26.35%, which I am still calling "balanced". The under-$900k market, however, is hot, hot, hot at 37.52% in contract. Above $1million, opportunity increases in direct proportion to price with $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.1%, $2million to $2.9million at 10.57%, and above $3million at only 3.7%. According to NRT MarketQuest, figures for the month of July (as of the 29th) showed the ratio of accepted offers to new listings at over 110% meaning that homes are selling faster than new listings become available. Year to date units sold at 791 as of 7/28 vs. 923 at the same time last year, or a decrease in YTD units sold of 14.3%. This is actually an improvement over the last report when the number was -14.7%. Basic idea: Sales are still behind last year but interest seems to be increasing substantially!
Condo's in the County cooling just a bit from their earlier torrid pace with overall percentage in contract down a notch from 38% at last report to 37% on July 28. $0-$999k price range (all but 14 units) at 38.66% in contract compared to 39.62% at last report. YTD units sold at 247 as of 7/28 compared to 233 a year ago at this time or up 5.66%. This represents a continued decrease and compares to a +11.9% at last report. Condo sales, which were red-hot for the first half of the year seem to be taking a bit of a break, but remember, 38% in contract is still a strong market. Sellers need to be cautious, however, since pricing is still critical and over-priced listings will sit.
Hotsheet for the period 7/15 to 7/28 showed the flip-side of current market activity with 60 SFR and 15 Condo listings withdrawn or temporarily off the market during the period. Best recipe for success--- an experienced local REALTOR, a realistic attitude regarding current market pricing, excellent preparation and presentation and skillful marketing.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Economic news upbeat this week with the Wednesday (7/29) Wall Street Journal featuring a front page headline "Home Prices Rise Across U.S.", going on to say "Home prices in major U.S. cities registered the first monthly gain in nearly three years----" The Saturday (8/1) WSJ front page flashed a headline "U.S. Economy Pulls Out of Tailspin" above an article that begins "The U.S. economy came out of its tailspin in the second quarter and may be poised to resume growing-----" Also front page news in the "Money and Investing" section of that same edition was an article titled "Dow's Month Was the Best Since 2002" referring to the July performance of the widely-followed index. The piece began "Stocks closed out a blistering month------"
Bottom line is media are starting to pick up on the same themes we have been observing and reporting for months. Our opinion is that recovery will still take a while with more ups and downs, but the worst is probably over.
Monthly City-by-City report still shows plenty of buyers' opportunities here in Marin County, especially in higher-priced homes. Jumbo mortgages still challenging. One such sale closed last week after four months in escrow while buyer jumped through lender hoops. For cash buyers or those with large (over 25%) down payments, now is a great time to pick up bargains in luxury homes. Sellers still not giving away property but there are great deals available. Corte Madera, San Rafael and Novato have the highest percentage in contract as of 7/31, with 30.4%, 35.18%, and 48.97% in contract, respectively. Holding down the bottom rungs of the ladder are Belvedere, at 10% in contract, Tiburon at 11.7% and Mill Valley at 17.02%. These are very popular places to live and represent great opportunities.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory down 3 units from last report at 1207. Overall percentage in contract is 26.35%, which I am still calling "balanced". The under-$900k market, however, is hot, hot, hot at 37.52% in contract. Above $1million, opportunity increases in direct proportion to price with $1million to $1.99 million range at 19.1%, $2million to $2.9million at 10.57%, and above $3million at only 3.7%. According to NRT MarketQuest, figures for the month of July (as of the 29th) showed the ratio of accepted offers to new listings at over 110% meaning that homes are selling faster than new listings become available. Year to date units sold at 791 as of 7/28 vs. 923 at the same time last year, or a decrease in YTD units sold of 14.3%. This is actually an improvement over the last report when the number was -14.7%. Basic idea: Sales are still behind last year but interest seems to be increasing substantially!
Condo's in the County cooling just a bit from their earlier torrid pace with overall percentage in contract down a notch from 38% at last report to 37% on July 28. $0-$999k price range (all but 14 units) at 38.66% in contract compared to 39.62% at last report. YTD units sold at 247 as of 7/28 compared to 233 a year ago at this time or up 5.66%. This represents a continued decrease and compares to a +11.9% at last report. Condo sales, which were red-hot for the first half of the year seem to be taking a bit of a break, but remember, 38% in contract is still a strong market. Sellers need to be cautious, however, since pricing is still critical and over-priced listings will sit.
Hotsheet for the period 7/15 to 7/28 showed the flip-side of current market activity with 60 SFR and 15 Condo listings withdrawn or temporarily off the market during the period. Best recipe for success--- an experienced local REALTOR, a realistic attitude regarding current market pricing, excellent preparation and presentation and skillful marketing.
More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, July 18, 2009
The Anlyan Report Marin County Real Estate Statistics 7.18.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
According to the July 18 Wall Street Journal "The Dow ended the week up 7.3% at 8743.94, taking just five days to recover almost all the 7.4% decline of the previous four weeks-----." The article went on to say this was the strongest weekly gain for the Dow since March. Look for more volatility in stocks in the coming weeks and months, but outlook overall appears hopeful.
Here in Marin County, single family residences (SFR) gained back a bit of ground compared to 2008, with 89 homes sold between June 30 and July 14 vs. only 74 in the same period a year ago. This brought YTD unit sales up to 724 compared to 849 last year at this time or -14.7%. In our report two weeks ago the figure was -18.06% so almost a 20% improvement over the two week period. In spite of this, percentage in contract figures for SFR's slipped slightly in all except the over $3million price range with that increase due to changes in only 3 units so probably not significant. Overall SFR percentage in contract slipped from 26.7% to 25.12%, losing its toehold on "sellers' market" status and drifting back into "balanced" territory. The hot under-$1million segment also cooled just a bit from 39.06% in contract to 37.26%, still technically a strong sellers' market but with not much power behind pricing, sellers still advised to pay careful attention to recent comparable sales, stage well, and go with the flow. Inventory overall down slightly to 1210 units from 1236 at last report.
Condo inventory in the County up 5 units from 321 to 326 since the June 30 report. Condo market still red hot with 38.03% of MLS-listed units in contract as of July 14. In the under-$1million segment, a scorching 40% in contract on that date. YTD units sold slipped again for the second reporting period, but still 11.9% ahead of this time last year with 234 YTD units sold vs. '08's 206 Average price of YTD sold units at $369,173 vs. $538,912 last year at this time. Part of this of course due to price deterioration, but quite a bit of it the result of "market mix", meaning a large percentage of the units on the market are lower-end properties, many of them bank-owned foreclosures. Multiple offers not uncommon in this segment. With more foreclosure activity still to come, opportunity for interested buyers should continue for a while but won't last forever!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
According to the July 18 Wall Street Journal "The Dow ended the week up 7.3% at 8743.94, taking just five days to recover almost all the 7.4% decline of the previous four weeks-----." The article went on to say this was the strongest weekly gain for the Dow since March. Look for more volatility in stocks in the coming weeks and months, but outlook overall appears hopeful.
Here in Marin County, single family residences (SFR) gained back a bit of ground compared to 2008, with 89 homes sold between June 30 and July 14 vs. only 74 in the same period a year ago. This brought YTD unit sales up to 724 compared to 849 last year at this time or -14.7%. In our report two weeks ago the figure was -18.06% so almost a 20% improvement over the two week period. In spite of this, percentage in contract figures for SFR's slipped slightly in all except the over $3million price range with that increase due to changes in only 3 units so probably not significant. Overall SFR percentage in contract slipped from 26.7% to 25.12%, losing its toehold on "sellers' market" status and drifting back into "balanced" territory. The hot under-$1million segment also cooled just a bit from 39.06% in contract to 37.26%, still technically a strong sellers' market but with not much power behind pricing, sellers still advised to pay careful attention to recent comparable sales, stage well, and go with the flow. Inventory overall down slightly to 1210 units from 1236 at last report.
Condo inventory in the County up 5 units from 321 to 326 since the June 30 report. Condo market still red hot with 38.03% of MLS-listed units in contract as of July 14. In the under-$1million segment, a scorching 40% in contract on that date. YTD units sold slipped again for the second reporting period, but still 11.9% ahead of this time last year with 234 YTD units sold vs. '08's 206 Average price of YTD sold units at $369,173 vs. $538,912 last year at this time. Part of this of course due to price deterioration, but quite a bit of it the result of "market mix", meaning a large percentage of the units on the market are lower-end properties, many of them bank-owned foreclosures. Multiple offers not uncommon in this segment. With more foreclosure activity still to come, opportunity for interested buyers should continue for a while but won't last forever!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, July 5, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 6.30.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
7.5.2009
Hello Everyone,
A short trading week with the Dow Jones Index down over 200 points on Thursday as government reports that unemployment hit a 26 year high took a bite out of investors' confidence and put the brakes on the recent rally in equity prices. This uncertainty typically carries over into the housing market where a lack of confidence in the economy keeps many buyers in the wings. May be a good situation for contrarians with the confidence to vote their convictions with their wallets.
City-by-City report out this week shows 8 of 13 cities and towns percentage in contract down, and 5 up. Novato still leading the pack with an amazing 50.73% of MLS listings (Condo's and Single Family combined) in contract as of June 29. San Anselmo in 2nd place at 34.62%, and San Rafael a solid 3rd at 33.33%. A point of interest--- of 341 active listings in Novato, 101 were condo's, and 64 of those were in contract on June 29, a sizzling 63%.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory in Marin County dropped to 1236 from 1256 at last report. Overall percentage in contract stayed about the same at 26.7%. $0-$999k price range doing best at 39.06% in contract due to relative availability of mortgage money in this segment. $1million to $1.99million homes at 16.53% in contract while $2million to $2.99million at 10.16% and $3million and up at only 7.21%--- reflecting the difficulty of getting "Jumbo" financing at this point in time. There is money out there but lenders are skittish, many requiring two independent appraisals as well as Full documentation. Lending process backed up at institutions doing these loans and taking substantially longer than was formerly the case. Individuals with cash or with large down payments in good negotiating position on higher-end homes with sellers now paying careful attention to which buyer is most likely to be successful in obtaining financing. During the month of June accepted offers on SFR's in Marin amounted to 27.7% of existing inventory and 105% of new listings (source NRT MarketQuest) , the highest in the past 24 months.
Condo's overall at 38.63% in contract on a county-wide basis with 124 of 321 MLS- listed properties in contract on June 30. There were 239 new condo listings and 88 accepted offers, or 111.4%, the highest in the past 24 months. Accepted condo offers amounted to 36.8% of total existing MLS-listed condo inventory, also a 24 month high as home buyers and investors snapped up properties at prices unheard of a year or 2 ago.
Hoping that everyone had a happy and safe 4th!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
7.5.2009
Hello Everyone,
A short trading week with the Dow Jones Index down over 200 points on Thursday as government reports that unemployment hit a 26 year high took a bite out of investors' confidence and put the brakes on the recent rally in equity prices. This uncertainty typically carries over into the housing market where a lack of confidence in the economy keeps many buyers in the wings. May be a good situation for contrarians with the confidence to vote their convictions with their wallets.
City-by-City report out this week shows 8 of 13 cities and towns percentage in contract down, and 5 up. Novato still leading the pack with an amazing 50.73% of MLS listings (Condo's and Single Family combined) in contract as of June 29. San Anselmo in 2nd place at 34.62%, and San Rafael a solid 3rd at 33.33%. A point of interest--- of 341 active listings in Novato, 101 were condo's, and 64 of those were in contract on June 29, a sizzling 63%.
Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory in Marin County dropped to 1236 from 1256 at last report. Overall percentage in contract stayed about the same at 26.7%. $0-$999k price range doing best at 39.06% in contract due to relative availability of mortgage money in this segment. $1million to $1.99million homes at 16.53% in contract while $2million to $2.99million at 10.16% and $3million and up at only 7.21%--- reflecting the difficulty of getting "Jumbo" financing at this point in time. There is money out there but lenders are skittish, many requiring two independent appraisals as well as Full documentation. Lending process backed up at institutions doing these loans and taking substantially longer than was formerly the case. Individuals with cash or with large down payments in good negotiating position on higher-end homes with sellers now paying careful attention to which buyer is most likely to be successful in obtaining financing. During the month of June accepted offers on SFR's in Marin amounted to 27.7% of existing inventory and 105% of new listings (source NRT MarketQuest) , the highest in the past 24 months.
Condo's overall at 38.63% in contract on a county-wide basis with 124 of 321 MLS- listed properties in contract on June 30. There were 239 new condo listings and 88 accepted offers, or 111.4%, the highest in the past 24 months. Accepted condo offers amounted to 36.8% of total existing MLS-listed condo inventory, also a 24 month high as home buyers and investors snapped up properties at prices unheard of a year or 2 ago.
Hoping that everyone had a happy and safe 4th!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, June 21, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 6.16.2009
(for spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
6.19.2009. Stocks closed down slightly today. The Dow Jones gave up ground this week on 4 of 5 trading days and ended 259.53 points lower than it opened on Monday making it the first losing week since May. Much of this the result of investors consolidating their positions ahead of a "quadruple witching" day, slang for the simultaneous expiration of four different kinds of options and futures contracts in the stock market. Market also wary of several different events next week----- "You have the Federal Reserve meeting, Treasury auctions, top-tier economic reports including home sales and personal spending and income that will help validate or nullify the idea that the economy is recovering" said marketwatch.com, quoting Kent Engelke at Capital Securities Management.
Time will tell.
Remains to be seen if recent increases in mortgage rates represent a blip or a trend. If the latter, look for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines to try to jump into the market before higher interest erodes their buying power too much. Buyers who have been pre-approved some time ago and have not locked their rates are wise to re-check to see what their loan limits may be with the new rates.
Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County up slightly at 1256 vs 1230 on June 2. Percentage in contract overall at 26.6%, roughly unchanged. Homes under $1million at 39.35% in contract, up from 38.81%. The $1million to $1.99 million segment also up slightly to 16.62% in contract from 15.66%. Homes over $2million down again and considered strong buyers' markets. Of course these are generalizations and individual properties can and do defy the trends. Some interesting facts (source NRT MarketQuest): In May there were 250 accepted offers on SFR's in the County, the most in over 24 months. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 79.1%, the highest since January of 07. And the supply of SFR's on the market was down to 7.7 months, the lowest since September of '08.
Condo's continue their red-hot pace with inventory shrinking again slightly from 319 to 315 over the two week period since our last report. Condo's overall at 39.04% in contract, and condo's under $1million (all but 14 of them) doing even better at 40.53%. For May, the ratio of accepted offers to inventory at 32.8%, the highest in over 24 months, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 104.8% (source NRT MarketQuest). Still not a good time for condo sellers to test market pricing boundaries with lots of competition from bank-owned REO properties, even with many reports of properties receiving multiple offers. There are still significant numbers of price reductions (28), expired (8) and withdrawn (18) listings between 6.3.09 and 6.16.09
(Marin MLS).
Big question on everyone's mind is "has the Marin real estate market hit bottom". Many investors seem to think it is at or near that point but impossible to know for sure. Traditionally when the market turns the corner, it goes up faster than it went down, gaining velocity from all those trying not to get left out.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
6.19.2009. Stocks closed down slightly today. The Dow Jones gave up ground this week on 4 of 5 trading days and ended 259.53 points lower than it opened on Monday making it the first losing week since May. Much of this the result of investors consolidating their positions ahead of a "quadruple witching" day, slang for the simultaneous expiration of four different kinds of options and futures contracts in the stock market. Market also wary of several different events next week----- "You have the Federal Reserve meeting, Treasury auctions, top-tier economic reports including home sales and personal spending and income that will help validate or nullify the idea that the economy is recovering" said marketwatch.com, quoting Kent Engelke at Capital Securities Management.
Time will tell.
Remains to be seen if recent increases in mortgage rates represent a blip or a trend. If the latter, look for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines to try to jump into the market before higher interest erodes their buying power too much. Buyers who have been pre-approved some time ago and have not locked their rates are wise to re-check to see what their loan limits may be with the new rates.
Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County up slightly at 1256 vs 1230 on June 2. Percentage in contract overall at 26.6%, roughly unchanged. Homes under $1million at 39.35% in contract, up from 38.81%. The $1million to $1.99 million segment also up slightly to 16.62% in contract from 15.66%. Homes over $2million down again and considered strong buyers' markets. Of course these are generalizations and individual properties can and do defy the trends. Some interesting facts (source NRT MarketQuest): In May there were 250 accepted offers on SFR's in the County, the most in over 24 months. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 79.1%, the highest since January of 07. And the supply of SFR's on the market was down to 7.7 months, the lowest since September of '08.
Condo's continue their red-hot pace with inventory shrinking again slightly from 319 to 315 over the two week period since our last report. Condo's overall at 39.04% in contract, and condo's under $1million (all but 14 of them) doing even better at 40.53%. For May, the ratio of accepted offers to inventory at 32.8%, the highest in over 24 months, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 104.8% (source NRT MarketQuest). Still not a good time for condo sellers to test market pricing boundaries with lots of competition from bank-owned REO properties, even with many reports of properties receiving multiple offers. There are still significant numbers of price reductions (28), expired (8) and withdrawn (18) listings between 6.3.09 and 6.16.09
(Marin MLS).
Big question on everyone's mind is "has the Marin real estate market hit bottom". Many investors seem to think it is at or near that point but impossible to know for sure. Traditionally when the market turns the corner, it goes up faster than it went down, gaining velocity from all those trying not to get left out.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, June 7, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 6.5.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
GM declared bankruptcy this week. After months of foreshadowing almost an anticlimax except to those directly affected--- dealers, employees, suppliers, automobile owners and buyers and a list of others. It used to be said that what is good for GM is good for the country. And what is not good for GM----------. Theoretically, after shedding substantial debt and unprofitable divisions the company will emerge leaner and more competitive. Remains to be seen. We wish them luck for the sake of all concerned. At the start of business on Monday, June 8, GM as well as Citigroup will be dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They will be replaced by Cisco Systems and Travelers insurance. Just goes to show that no company is too big to be subject to the basic rules of business and markets.
Dow Jones closed out the week today (6/5/2009) at 8763, up about 12 points and holding up pretty well but people watching all this are still wary, skittish, waiting for another shoe to drop, wondering if the Marin County housing market has hit bottom or still has further to go. Crystal ball says "answer hazy, ask again later", but previous cycles have shown that although it is difficult to exactly time the bottom of the market it is still beneficial to buy near the market lows, and easier to do on the way down than on the way back up.
City-by-City Report for June 1 shows Novato and San Rafael still with very strong sales at 46% and 35% of listings in contract, respectively, followed closely by Corte Madera at 36% and San Anselmo at 33%. On the other end of the scale, Tiburon in the basement with only 5 of 111 listings in contract, or 4.5%. Kentfield next at 11%, and Sausalito at 14%. Mill Valley at only 19.7% or 39 out of 198 listings in contract, but this a steady and consistent improvement from 14% on May 5 and 10% on March 31.
Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County inventory actually down about 17 units from last report to 1230, of which 327 or 26% were in contract on June 2. Homes under $1million at 38% in contract (248 of 639), down just a bit from last report's figure of 40.25%. Upper end of the market still stuck due to challenges in obtaining "jumbo" mortgages. The money is out there but it takes time and determination to get the loans through for qualified borrowers. Well worth doing to take advantage of fabulous (I almost want to say "once in a lifetime") deals on purchase prices. YTD SFR sales at 479 units compared to 599 at this time last year, or down 20%. This shows continued progress from -21.5% at last report.
Condo's in the County at 37.62% in contract overall and 39% for units under $1million (all but 14 units). 179 units sold YTD as of June 2 compares to 149 at the same time last year or up 20%. As we have discussed before, average sales price for YTD units sold $363,326 vs. last year's $564,096 and days on market up from 95 last year to 114 now. Lower sales prices not an accurate representation of loss of market value because they also reflect to a considerable degree REO (bank-owned properties) "fire-sale" pricing and lower-end units on the market. Markets vary greatly by town, neighborhood, street, and specific complex and can be challenging to understand. Best bet is a local, experienced real estate agent who is familiar with current inventory and pricing and recent sales.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
GM declared bankruptcy this week. After months of foreshadowing almost an anticlimax except to those directly affected--- dealers, employees, suppliers, automobile owners and buyers and a list of others. It used to be said that what is good for GM is good for the country. And what is not good for GM----------. Theoretically, after shedding substantial debt and unprofitable divisions the company will emerge leaner and more competitive. Remains to be seen. We wish them luck for the sake of all concerned. At the start of business on Monday, June 8, GM as well as Citigroup will be dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They will be replaced by Cisco Systems and Travelers insurance. Just goes to show that no company is too big to be subject to the basic rules of business and markets.
Dow Jones closed out the week today (6/5/2009) at 8763, up about 12 points and holding up pretty well but people watching all this are still wary, skittish, waiting for another shoe to drop, wondering if the Marin County housing market has hit bottom or still has further to go. Crystal ball says "answer hazy, ask again later", but previous cycles have shown that although it is difficult to exactly time the bottom of the market it is still beneficial to buy near the market lows, and easier to do on the way down than on the way back up.
City-by-City Report for June 1 shows Novato and San Rafael still with very strong sales at 46% and 35% of listings in contract, respectively, followed closely by Corte Madera at 36% and San Anselmo at 33%. On the other end of the scale, Tiburon in the basement with only 5 of 111 listings in contract, or 4.5%. Kentfield next at 11%, and Sausalito at 14%. Mill Valley at only 19.7% or 39 out of 198 listings in contract, but this a steady and consistent improvement from 14% on May 5 and 10% on March 31.
Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County inventory actually down about 17 units from last report to 1230, of which 327 or 26% were in contract on June 2. Homes under $1million at 38% in contract (248 of 639), down just a bit from last report's figure of 40.25%. Upper end of the market still stuck due to challenges in obtaining "jumbo" mortgages. The money is out there but it takes time and determination to get the loans through for qualified borrowers. Well worth doing to take advantage of fabulous (I almost want to say "once in a lifetime") deals on purchase prices. YTD SFR sales at 479 units compared to 599 at this time last year, or down 20%. This shows continued progress from -21.5% at last report.
Condo's in the County at 37.62% in contract overall and 39% for units under $1million (all but 14 units). 179 units sold YTD as of June 2 compares to 149 at the same time last year or up 20%. As we have discussed before, average sales price for YTD units sold $363,326 vs. last year's $564,096 and days on market up from 95 last year to 114 now. Lower sales prices not an accurate representation of loss of market value because they also reflect to a considerable degree REO (bank-owned properties) "fire-sale" pricing and lower-end units on the market. Markets vary greatly by town, neighborhood, street, and specific complex and can be challenging to understand. Best bet is a local, experienced real estate agent who is familiar with current inventory and pricing and recent sales.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Saturday, May 23, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 5.19.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com/
Hello Everyone,
Marin County Single Family Residencees as a group crossed over into what has been traditionally known as "sellers' market" territory for the first time in quite a while at 27.1% in contract. This largely on the strength of the under- $1million market which is incredibly hot at 40.25% in contract, led by Novato and San Rafael. The Marin IJ front page today (5/22) trumpeted "Marin Home Sales Increase", also noting that median price went from $935,000 last year to $743,500 in April of this year (this author did not verify these statistics). Article went on to quote "analysts" as saying "a major factor bringing down median prices was an unusually low level of high-end home sales, which have become under-represented in Bay Area statistics", something we have been saying for months. Home sales in the higher end continue to languish while buyers and even real estate agents question when the supply of "jumbo" mortgage money will be turned back on. Conversations with loan brokers indicate that this supply is slowly coming back but is tightly controlled. Word is that jumbo money is becoming available for adjustable loans, but that 30 year fixed money is still expensive and difficult to obtain. Guidelines and ratios for loans being strictly observed by lenders. Unknown factor affecting home sales is a possible "bulge in the python" of new foreclosures after several months of moratorium recently observed by lenders. Large new supply of inventory could depress prices. Many buyers with cash in search of high-end properties getting extraordinary deals. Smart investors in a buying mode. SFR days on market to May 19, 108 vs. 87 at this time last year. 408 units sold so far this year compared to 520 in '08, or -21.5%. 1247 SFR's listed on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as of May 19, 338 of them in contract.
326 Condo's Listed on the Marin MLS on May 19. 117, or 35.85% in contract. Traditionally regarded as a "sellers" market, just on the borderline of "strong sellers' "---- with one major difference------ sellers do not have the ability to dictate pricing. 156 Condo units sold YTD vs. 135 at this time last year, a 15.5% increase. DOM for YTD sales at 117 vs. last year's 95. Median price $363,808 vs. $574,547 last year, held down by the preponderance of low-end bank-owned properties on the market. End of foreclosure moratorium brings up same questions/concerns as with SFR's, but invoestors reportedly snapping up multiple properties as they look at what they consider to be bargain pricing.
More will be revealed---
In the meantime, a wonderful and safe Memorial Day Holiday to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Marin County Single Family Residencees as a group crossed over into what has been traditionally known as "sellers' market" territory for the first time in quite a while at 27.1% in contract. This largely on the strength of the under- $1million market which is incredibly hot at 40.25% in contract, led by Novato and San Rafael. The Marin IJ front page today (5/22) trumpeted "Marin Home Sales Increase", also noting that median price went from $935,000 last year to $743,500 in April of this year (this author did not verify these statistics). Article went on to quote "analysts" as saying "a major factor bringing down median prices was an unusually low level of high-end home sales, which have become under-represented in Bay Area statistics", something we have been saying for months. Home sales in the higher end continue to languish while buyers and even real estate agents question when the supply of "jumbo" mortgage money will be turned back on. Conversations with loan brokers indicate that this supply is slowly coming back but is tightly controlled. Word is that jumbo money is becoming available for adjustable loans, but that 30 year fixed money is still expensive and difficult to obtain. Guidelines and ratios for loans being strictly observed by lenders. Unknown factor affecting home sales is a possible "bulge in the python" of new foreclosures after several months of moratorium recently observed by lenders. Large new supply of inventory could depress prices. Many buyers with cash in search of high-end properties getting extraordinary deals. Smart investors in a buying mode. SFR days on market to May 19, 108 vs. 87 at this time last year. 408 units sold so far this year compared to 520 in '08, or -21.5%. 1247 SFR's listed on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as of May 19, 338 of them in contract.
326 Condo's Listed on the Marin MLS on May 19. 117, or 35.85% in contract. Traditionally regarded as a "sellers" market, just on the borderline of "strong sellers' "---- with one major difference------ sellers do not have the ability to dictate pricing. 156 Condo units sold YTD vs. 135 at this time last year, a 15.5% increase. DOM for YTD sales at 117 vs. last year's 95. Median price $363,808 vs. $574,547 last year, held down by the preponderance of low-end bank-owned properties on the market. End of foreclosure moratorium brings up same questions/concerns as with SFR's, but invoestors reportedly snapping up multiple properties as they look at what they consider to be bargain pricing.
More will be revealed---
In the meantime, a wonderful and safe Memorial Day Holiday to all,
Fred
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