Hello Everyone,
The Federal Reserve, in an unexpected move, and one some think is premature, increased the Discount Rate Friday by .25%. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to appear before the House and Senate in the coming week to explain the policy. Speculation is that with the jobless rate still in the area of 10% there will not be much further tightening in the near future, but that remains to be seen. Interesting article at: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j_JKlWJuvyH9o86cq2-UrJdVTAZA
La Jolla, California-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in a February 18 article headlined "Bay Area home sales fall; median price up from last year, down from December" notes the number of Bay Area homes sold in January was below January of 2009, even though the median price was up. Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100218.aspx
Marin County, however, bucking the trend, with 144 Single Family Residences (SFR) sold to Feb. 16, as opposed to 98 during the same perior in '09, a 46.9% increase. Condo units sold up too, though less spectacular at 50 in 2010 vs. 47 in '09 or 6.3% more. Average sold prices up too, with SFR avg. sold price for the period at $1,037,231 vs. $846,678 in '09 and condo avg. sold price at $400,424 for 2010 vs. $287,949 for the same '09 dates. Caution is advised in interpreting these results. With a small sample size this early in the year, "market mix" can have a greater effect on the figures. Still, the numbers are at least interesting and bear watching.
Inventory still low, with 792 SFR's being actively marketed on MLS as of 2.16. This compares to 952 units at the end of February, '09. On February 16, 33.8% of active SFR units were in contract in all price ranges. The under-$1million price range still incredibly hot, with 46.4% of listed units in contract while at the upper end, $3million-plus properties still slow movers at only 7.25% in contract-- a tremendous opportunity for upper-end buyers.
Condominium inventory at 285 units on 2.16.2010 vs 312 at the end of Feb. '09. Over 39% of these were in contract. Condo's under $1million, the majority of the market, at 41.6% in contract.
Early results encouraging. Economy still iffy. Buyers still jittery. I will go out on a limb and predict a brighter 2010 for real estate. We shall see.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Sunday, January 24, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 1.24.2010
Hello Everyone,
Front page article in the 1.22.10 Marin IJ exclaims "Home sales, median price up". At the same time stocks in the Dow take a 200 point one-day dive on fears about proposed new bank regulations as well as concern about Fed Chairman Bernanke's re-appointment problems. Investors want to be optimistic but still cautious, skittish, reacting to news and rumors by selling stocks. Mortgage rates improved slightly on the poor financial news.
A January 21 article by San Diego-based MDA DataQuick titled "Bay Area home sales strongest in three years" noted that December's Bay Area sales of 7,828 units were the month's highest since 8,372 were sold in December of '06. Article goes on to say that home sales are still skewed towards the low end of the market, a fact the writers attribute to tax incentives and sales of distressed properties. Also notes that lender reluctance currently the most significant obstacle to further improvement in the Bay Area housing market. States that December Bay Area foreclosure re-sales made up about 32% of re-sale activity compared to 48% in Dec of '08 and the high of 52% in Feb, '09. Full text of article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100121.aspx
Here in Marin County, YTD unit sales of single family residences (SFR) were 48 as of January 19, up 17% over the 41 units sold in the same period last year, while condo's unit sales were down 5.5% at 17 vs. 09's 18 during the same period. Average list and sold prices up for both categories of housing showing significant increases but this may be due to the as yet small number of sales, and therefore subject to change as the year continues.
Inventory for both condo's and SFR's beginning to increase slightly, a normal trend for this time of year as sellers who waited out the Holidays bring their properties to market or place them back on the market after temporarily withdrawing them. County-wide, the under-$1million market continues to be most active by far, with 45.75% of SFR's and 44.5% of condo's in the price range in contract. Upper end of the market still sluggish, largely due to difficulty in obtaining "jumbo" loans. Buyers with cash continuing to pick up great deals. Varies by city/town, neighborhood, etc. See last City-by-City report for details (attached again for convenience).
Many feel the local market has bottomed out and is on the upswing. Many buyers shopping for property before rates and prices go up. Experienced local REALTORS still the best source of information and assistance.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Front page article in the 1.22.10 Marin IJ exclaims "Home sales, median price up". At the same time stocks in the Dow take a 200 point one-day dive on fears about proposed new bank regulations as well as concern about Fed Chairman Bernanke's re-appointment problems. Investors want to be optimistic but still cautious, skittish, reacting to news and rumors by selling stocks. Mortgage rates improved slightly on the poor financial news.
A January 21 article by San Diego-based MDA DataQuick titled "Bay Area home sales strongest in three years" noted that December's Bay Area sales of 7,828 units were the month's highest since 8,372 were sold in December of '06. Article goes on to say that home sales are still skewed towards the low end of the market, a fact the writers attribute to tax incentives and sales of distressed properties. Also notes that lender reluctance currently the most significant obstacle to further improvement in the Bay Area housing market. States that December Bay Area foreclosure re-sales made up about 32% of re-sale activity compared to 48% in Dec of '08 and the high of 52% in Feb, '09. Full text of article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100121.aspx
Here in Marin County, YTD unit sales of single family residences (SFR) were 48 as of January 19, up 17% over the 41 units sold in the same period last year, while condo's unit sales were down 5.5% at 17 vs. 09's 18 during the same period. Average list and sold prices up for both categories of housing showing significant increases but this may be due to the as yet small number of sales, and therefore subject to change as the year continues.
Inventory for both condo's and SFR's beginning to increase slightly, a normal trend for this time of year as sellers who waited out the Holidays bring their properties to market or place them back on the market after temporarily withdrawing them. County-wide, the under-$1million market continues to be most active by far, with 45.75% of SFR's and 44.5% of condo's in the price range in contract. Upper end of the market still sluggish, largely due to difficulty in obtaining "jumbo" loans. Buyers with cash continuing to pick up great deals. Varies by city/town, neighborhood, etc. See last City-by-City report for details (attached again for convenience).
Many feel the local market has bottomed out and is on the upswing. Many buyers shopping for property before rates and prices go up. Experienced local REALTORS still the best source of information and assistance.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
http://www.fredanlyan.com
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 1.10.2010
Hello Everyone,
Happy New Year, and welcome to 2010!
Emerging from the traditionally quiet period of the year (regarding real estate, that is), we see that is has not been all that quiet. Numbers of accepted offers for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condominiums were double or more than in the same period in the last two years. Months Supply of Inventory at the end of December was 3.5 for SFR's and 4.1 for Condo's, lowest in over two years. Total SFR units sold finished 2009 at 1656, 5.5% more than 2008. Condo's at 497 sold for the year down just 2% from the year-ago figure. Some of this activity, no doubt, due to buyers desire to get taxpayer credits while they last and to take advantage of historically low interest rates which are bound to go up sooner or later. The question is when. Will the Fed start to raise interest rates while employment is still at 10% +? Is there another round of foreclosures coming that will depress housing prices further. As the toy crystal ball I had as a child was fond of saying: "answer hazy, ask again later". One thing is for sure. Buyer taxpayer credits will end, and interest rates will eventually rise. Prices and interest rates are excellent now. Many think this is a great time to buy. Time will tell.
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract down in 5 Marin cities and towns, up in 7, and essentially unchanged in one (San Rafael, 37%). Belvedere lowest at 14.29% in contract, even after a 2 point rise, while Fairfax has the top spot at 59%, and still-hot Novato comes in a close 2nd at 53.6%. Pricing still critical in all Marin County markets, with overpriced listings sitting on the market and eventually withdrawn, cancelled, or selling for significantly less than properties "priced right" from the beginning. No time to push the envelope or test the market. Pricing, preparation, and presentation still critical factors in listing and selling a home. Sellers advised to seek the advice of experienced local REALTORS who know the market.
Market Action Report for both SFR's and Condo's attached again this month. Please take a look and let me know if you like these reports and find them useful.
2010 promises to be an interesting, and perhaps a pivotal year for real estate. It will be interesting to see what happens.
More later---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Happy New Year, and welcome to 2010!
Emerging from the traditionally quiet period of the year (regarding real estate, that is), we see that is has not been all that quiet. Numbers of accepted offers for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condominiums were double or more than in the same period in the last two years. Months Supply of Inventory at the end of December was 3.5 for SFR's and 4.1 for Condo's, lowest in over two years. Total SFR units sold finished 2009 at 1656, 5.5% more than 2008. Condo's at 497 sold for the year down just 2% from the year-ago figure. Some of this activity, no doubt, due to buyers desire to get taxpayer credits while they last and to take advantage of historically low interest rates which are bound to go up sooner or later. The question is when. Will the Fed start to raise interest rates while employment is still at 10% +? Is there another round of foreclosures coming that will depress housing prices further. As the toy crystal ball I had as a child was fond of saying: "answer hazy, ask again later". One thing is for sure. Buyer taxpayer credits will end, and interest rates will eventually rise. Prices and interest rates are excellent now. Many think this is a great time to buy. Time will tell.
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract down in 5 Marin cities and towns, up in 7, and essentially unchanged in one (San Rafael, 37%). Belvedere lowest at 14.29% in contract, even after a 2 point rise, while Fairfax has the top spot at 59%, and still-hot Novato comes in a close 2nd at 53.6%. Pricing still critical in all Marin County markets, with overpriced listings sitting on the market and eventually withdrawn, cancelled, or selling for significantly less than properties "priced right" from the beginning. No time to push the envelope or test the market. Pricing, preparation, and presentation still critical factors in listing and selling a home. Sellers advised to seek the advice of experienced local REALTORS who know the market.
Market Action Report for both SFR's and Condo's attached again this month. Please take a look and let me know if you like these reports and find them useful.
2010 promises to be an interesting, and perhaps a pivotal year for real estate. It will be interesting to see what happens.
More later---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, December 20, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 12.19.2009
Hello Everyone,
Marin IJ ran a front page article 12.17.09 that was unusually well-balanced, at least after one got past the headline:
Marin home prices buck Bay Area trend of increases
http://www.marinij.com/marinnews/ci_14018255
The article credited some of the information used to La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, which published an online article a couple of days later.
Bay Area home sales and median price top last year again
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091217.aspx
Read the articles for full details but the general 'drift' was:
Bay area home prices down from October, but up from November '08, the 2nd month in a row of year over year price increases; Bay Area foreclosure sales in November represented 32.5% of all sales activity, up slightly from October, but down substantially from 46.8% in November of '08; DQ article discussed general speculation and some concern over a possible 'shadow inventory' that may result in one more wave of coming foreclosures but noted foreclosure resales have declined this year due to shift in tactics by lenders to the pursuit of short sales and loan modifications rather than foreclosures in many instances. DQ also noted 'jumbo' loan availability improving at 29.5% of all purchases in November, down from 30.9% in October but up from only 24% a year ago. (Limited availability of these loans still acting as a drag on the upper end market here in Marin) Article also noted 22.4% of all BayArea real estate transactions in November appeared to be cash sales, and 15.7% of sales were to absentee buyers.
Lots of activity brewing here in Marin belies the belief that the buyers have all shuffled off for a long winter's nap. Inventory low, activity impressive.
Single Family Residence (SFR):
Sold in November '09- 167, In Nov. '08-- 90, In Nov. '07 140
Accepted offers Nov '09- 230, In Nov. '08-89, In Nov. '07 142
Accepted offers to new listings Nov '09- 129.9%, Nov. 08-56.3%, Nov '07- 88.8%
Accepted offers to inventory Nov '09-27.8%, Nov. '08- 9.1%, Nov. '07 16.7%
Months Supply of inventory Nov '09- 5, Nov.'08- 10.9, Nov. 07-6.1
Number of SFR's sold YTD as of December 15 at 1559, finally catching up to and surpassing the YTD figure for the same date in '08, drawing ahead by 2.4%
Condominiums:
Have slowed their formerly torrid pace during the last couple of months, with YTD unit sales at 477 as of Dec 15 vs. 491 at the same time in '08, down 2.8%. Current high levels of accepted offers and low months supply of inventory indicate lots of action still taking place in the Marin County condo market.
Sold in November '09- 41, In Nov. '08-- 47, In Nov. '07 35
Accepted offers Nov '09- 81, In Nov. '08-47, In Nov. '07 28
Accepted offers to new listings Nov '09- 132.8%, Nov. 08-67.1%, Nov '07- 39.4%
Accepted offers to inventory Nov '09-38.8%, Nov. '08- 15.4%, Nov. '07 8.9%
Months Supply of inventory Nov '09- 5.1, Nov.'08- 6.5, Nov. 07-8.9
(Data immediately above courtesy of Coldwell Banker MarketQuest. Data believed accurate but not verified)
Remember when looking at sales figures and price levels that 50.8% of all SFR's and 63% of all condo's sold in the County in November were in Novato and San Rafael. This significantly skews the averages and the medians. Your experienced local REALTOR can help you with current values in your neighborhood.
Dow Jones ended the week down 1.4 %, the biggest decline in over a month, according to the 12.19 Wall Street Journal, which went on to say "an earnings-fueled rally bolstered technology stocks" Friday, helping the market to recover partially from a 44 point drop earlier in the day which, it said, was caused by concern about "sovereign credit and the global economy". These kinds of concerns will be around for a while and 2010 shaping up to be an interesting and very possibly pivotal year. We will see what happens.
More next time----.
Until then, best wishes to all for the Holidays and the New Year,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marin IJ ran a front page article 12.17.09 that was unusually well-balanced, at least after one got past the headline:
Marin home prices buck Bay Area trend of increases
http://www.marinij.com/marinnews/ci_14018255
The article credited some of the information used to La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, which published an online article a couple of days later.
Bay Area home sales and median price top last year again
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091217.aspx
Read the articles for full details but the general 'drift' was:
Bay area home prices down from October, but up from November '08, the 2nd month in a row of year over year price increases; Bay Area foreclosure sales in November represented 32.5% of all sales activity, up slightly from October, but down substantially from 46.8% in November of '08; DQ article discussed general speculation and some concern over a possible 'shadow inventory' that may result in one more wave of coming foreclosures but noted foreclosure resales have declined this year due to shift in tactics by lenders to the pursuit of short sales and loan modifications rather than foreclosures in many instances. DQ also noted 'jumbo' loan availability improving at 29.5% of all purchases in November, down from 30.9% in October but up from only 24% a year ago. (Limited availability of these loans still acting as a drag on the upper end market here in Marin) Article also noted 22.4% of all BayArea real estate transactions in November appeared to be cash sales, and 15.7% of sales were to absentee buyers.
Lots of activity brewing here in Marin belies the belief that the buyers have all shuffled off for a long winter's nap. Inventory low, activity impressive.
Single Family Residence (SFR):
Sold in November '09- 167, In Nov. '08-- 90, In Nov. '07 140
Accepted offers Nov '09- 230, In Nov. '08-89, In Nov. '07 142
Accepted offers to new listings Nov '09- 129.9%, Nov. 08-56.3%, Nov '07- 88.8%
Accepted offers to inventory Nov '09-27.8%, Nov. '08- 9.1%, Nov. '07 16.7%
Months Supply of inventory Nov '09- 5, Nov.'08- 10.9, Nov. 07-6.1
Number of SFR's sold YTD as of December 15 at 1559, finally catching up to and surpassing the YTD figure for the same date in '08, drawing ahead by 2.4%
Condominiums:
Have slowed their formerly torrid pace during the last couple of months, with YTD unit sales at 477 as of Dec 15 vs. 491 at the same time in '08, down 2.8%. Current high levels of accepted offers and low months supply of inventory indicate lots of action still taking place in the Marin County condo market.
Sold in November '09- 41, In Nov. '08-- 47, In Nov. '07 35
Accepted offers Nov '09- 81, In Nov. '08-47, In Nov. '07 28
Accepted offers to new listings Nov '09- 132.8%, Nov. 08-67.1%, Nov '07- 39.4%
Accepted offers to inventory Nov '09-38.8%, Nov. '08- 15.4%, Nov. '07 8.9%
Months Supply of inventory Nov '09- 5.1, Nov.'08- 6.5, Nov. 07-8.9
(Data immediately above courtesy of Coldwell Banker MarketQuest. Data believed accurate but not verified)
Remember when looking at sales figures and price levels that 50.8% of all SFR's and 63% of all condo's sold in the County in November were in Novato and San Rafael. This significantly skews the averages and the medians. Your experienced local REALTOR can help you with current values in your neighborhood.
Dow Jones ended the week down 1.4 %, the biggest decline in over a month, according to the 12.19 Wall Street Journal, which went on to say "an earnings-fueled rally bolstered technology stocks" Friday, helping the market to recover partially from a 44 point drop earlier in the day which, it said, was caused by concern about "sovereign credit and the global economy". These kinds of concerns will be around for a while and 2010 shaping up to be an interesting and very possibly pivotal year. We will see what happens.
More next time----.
Until then, best wishes to all for the Holidays and the New Year,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, December 6, 2009
12.6.2009
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows inventory down in every city/town covered by the report. Percentage in contract up in 8 of the 13 covered locations. Total Single Family Homes sold YTD as of Dec 1 was 1472 vs. 1481 at the same time last year or minus only 6/10 of one percent--- a nice catch-up over the last couple of months. Condo YTD unit sales at 451 vs. 2008's 474, holding steady since last report at -4.8% compared to a year ago.
Reports on U.S. economy unexpectedly good last week, especially jobs report. This could be bad news for future interest rates, including mortgages. We will see. Some folks still worried about "shadow inventory" of homes about to be foreclosed upon or recently foreclosed coming on the market and further depressing prices. One never knows for sure, but percentage in contract for every price point of both SFR's and Condo's is up since last report. SFR's under $1million at over 46% and Condo's over 47%. These are very high levels! Percentage in contract starting to inch up for pricier homes in the $1million to $3million-plus range as well.
Market slower now as we approach the Holidays, but serious buyers and sellers are still in the game. As I have said here before, a great time for buyers to make deals with less competition from those who are taking time off from their search until after the New Year.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all for the Holiday Season,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows inventory down in every city/town covered by the report. Percentage in contract up in 8 of the 13 covered locations. Total Single Family Homes sold YTD as of Dec 1 was 1472 vs. 1481 at the same time last year or minus only 6/10 of one percent--- a nice catch-up over the last couple of months. Condo YTD unit sales at 451 vs. 2008's 474, holding steady since last report at -4.8% compared to a year ago.
Reports on U.S. economy unexpectedly good last week, especially jobs report. This could be bad news for future interest rates, including mortgages. We will see. Some folks still worried about "shadow inventory" of homes about to be foreclosed upon or recently foreclosed coming on the market and further depressing prices. One never knows for sure, but percentage in contract for every price point of both SFR's and Condo's is up since last report. SFR's under $1million at over 46% and Condo's over 47%. These are very high levels! Percentage in contract starting to inch up for pricier homes in the $1million to $3million-plus range as well.
Market slower now as we approach the Holidays, but serious buyers and sellers are still in the game. As I have said here before, a great time for buyers to make deals with less competition from those who are taking time off from their search until after the New Year.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all for the Holiday Season,
Fred
Sunday, November 22, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 11.21.09
Hello Everyone,
The week ended on mixed news.
The Marin IJ ran a welcome, though recently rare headline Friday November 20, "Marin home prices,sales rise", citing year over year increases from October '08 to October '09 both in Marin and for much of the Bay Area.
An article by San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, Thursday, November 19, titled "Bay Area median sale price tops year-ago level for first time since '07" reported "The Bay Area's housing market continued to ease back toward normalcy last month as fewer distressed properties sold-----. The nine-county region posted a modest year-over-year gain in its median sale price-the first in nearly two years-----."
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091119.aspx
Here in Marin County sales of Single Family Residences under $1million continued to be hot and hotter, with 264 of 567 (46.5%) MLS-listed homes in contract on November 17. Homes on the upper end a different story with 19% of $1million-$2million homes in contract, 14% of $2million-$3million homes, and only 9% of homes over $3million. Year-to-date sales of SFR's in the County at 1390 compared to 1429 at the same time last year, or -2.7%, a significant and continued improvement from the -5.8% at last report. Average days on market at 106 compared to 87 last year at this time. Average list price $1,053,208 and average sold price $1,000,819.
Condominium inventory remained roughly static at 305 vs. 309 at last report. 288 of these were under $1million, with the average list at $391,046 and the average sale at $377,874. Of these, 135 units, or 46.88% were in contract on November 17. Out of the other 17 "high-end" units, only 1 was in contract. As of November 17, 428 units had sold YTD vs. 450 at the same time last year, or -4.8%, slightly less than the -4.5% at last report.
Marin County real estate market split between brisk under-$1million market with buyers feeling more of a sense of urgency now, and more sluggish upper-end market where opportunity still abounds. A story circulating last week had a property formerly listed at over $4million going into contract at under $3million. These deals will not last forever! Experienced local REALTORS know the difference between a bargain and a white elephant. Let one of them help you!
More next time---
Until then,
Happy Thanksgiving to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
The week ended on mixed news.
The Marin IJ ran a welcome, though recently rare headline Friday November 20, "Marin home prices,sales rise", citing year over year increases from October '08 to October '09 both in Marin and for much of the Bay Area.
An article by San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, Thursday, November 19, titled "Bay Area median sale price tops year-ago level for first time since '07" reported "The Bay Area's housing market continued to ease back toward normalcy last month as fewer distressed properties sold-----. The nine-county region posted a modest year-over-year gain in its median sale price-the first in nearly two years-----."
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091119.aspx
Here in Marin County sales of Single Family Residences under $1million continued to be hot and hotter, with 264 of 567 (46.5%) MLS-listed homes in contract on November 17. Homes on the upper end a different story with 19% of $1million-$2million homes in contract, 14% of $2million-$3million homes, and only 9% of homes over $3million. Year-to-date sales of SFR's in the County at 1390 compared to 1429 at the same time last year, or -2.7%, a significant and continued improvement from the -5.8% at last report. Average days on market at 106 compared to 87 last year at this time. Average list price $1,053,208 and average sold price $1,000,819.
Condominium inventory remained roughly static at 305 vs. 309 at last report. 288 of these were under $1million, with the average list at $391,046 and the average sale at $377,874. Of these, 135 units, or 46.88% were in contract on November 17. Out of the other 17 "high-end" units, only 1 was in contract. As of November 17, 428 units had sold YTD vs. 450 at the same time last year, or -4.8%, slightly less than the -4.5% at last report.
Marin County real estate market split between brisk under-$1million market with buyers feeling more of a sense of urgency now, and more sluggish upper-end market where opportunity still abounds. A story circulating last week had a property formerly listed at over $4million going into contract at under $3million. These deals will not last forever! Experienced local REALTORS know the difference between a bargain and a white elephant. Let one of them help you!
More next time---
Until then,
Happy Thanksgiving to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, November 6, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 11.6.2009
Hello Everyone,
According to Coldwell Banker's MarketQuest program, Marin County Single Family Residences for sale at the end of October represented just a 5.6 month supply. Condo's even lower with only a 4.4 months worth of inventory. Just last month there was an 8 month supply of SFR's and a 5.3 month supply of condo's! Accepted offers for the month for SFR's are at 137% of new listings and 35% of inventory compares to 61% and 16% last month. October Accepted offers on Condo's at 103. This is also 137% of new listings and it is 48% of existing inventory. Compares to September's 97.5% and 29.6%. Bottom line--- increasing sales and decreasing inventory.
Listing agents starting to set offer dates again for attractively priced homes, especially REO's (bank-owned real estate). Many of these are attracting multiple offers which often go over asking price but not necessarily by a large margin. One listing agent in Novato recently had multiple offers on a property, had the deal fall through twice. The property had multiple offers each of three times it was on the market. It closed escrow on the third try, over asking price. Especially in Novato, cash is king. Investors offering all cash deals or large cash down payments, quick closes, sometimes as short as 7 days. Buyers well-advised to write good solid offers but not to feel pressed into situations they are not comfortable with.
City-by-City report out this week shows 11 of 13 covered cities and towns increased percentage in contract. Greenbrae and Novato bucking the trend with decreases but probably not tremendously significant. Greenbrae most likely the result of small sample size and Novato decreasing 4 percentage points but still leading the County with 50% of all listings in contract as of November 1.
Marin County SFR and Condo reports showing all price points with an increase in percentage in contract as of November 3. Condo's under $1million, led by the Novato REO market, particularly strong at 46% in contract. SFR's under $1million at 42% in contract. See City-by-City Report for variation by city/town.
Current average Days on Market (DOM) for SFR's is 106 vs. 86 at this time last year.
For Condo's it is 116 DOM vs. 104 in Oct. '08. SFR YTD units sold at 1312 on Nov 3 vs 1393 same time last year, or -5.8%---- compares favorably with -10% at last report. Condo YTD units sold at 407 vs 426 last year or -4.5%-- a slight improvement over last report's -4.8%. Average sold prices still down with SFR's at $996,458 vs. $1,298,170 last year and Condo's at $372,301 vs. '08's $495,281. Remember, this is partially a function of market-mix (meaning that lower-end homes were a higher percentage of sold homes) and not all price decline.
Market conditions look hopeful. May be anticipating economic recovery. Home Buyer Tax Credit extension approved by Congress goes to President Obama for signature.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
According to Coldwell Banker's MarketQuest program, Marin County Single Family Residences for sale at the end of October represented just a 5.6 month supply. Condo's even lower with only a 4.4 months worth of inventory. Just last month there was an 8 month supply of SFR's and a 5.3 month supply of condo's! Accepted offers for the month for SFR's are at 137% of new listings and 35% of inventory compares to 61% and 16% last month. October Accepted offers on Condo's at 103. This is also 137% of new listings and it is 48% of existing inventory. Compares to September's 97.5% and 29.6%. Bottom line--- increasing sales and decreasing inventory.
Listing agents starting to set offer dates again for attractively priced homes, especially REO's (bank-owned real estate). Many of these are attracting multiple offers which often go over asking price but not necessarily by a large margin. One listing agent in Novato recently had multiple offers on a property, had the deal fall through twice. The property had multiple offers each of three times it was on the market. It closed escrow on the third try, over asking price. Especially in Novato, cash is king. Investors offering all cash deals or large cash down payments, quick closes, sometimes as short as 7 days. Buyers well-advised to write good solid offers but not to feel pressed into situations they are not comfortable with.
City-by-City report out this week shows 11 of 13 covered cities and towns increased percentage in contract. Greenbrae and Novato bucking the trend with decreases but probably not tremendously significant. Greenbrae most likely the result of small sample size and Novato decreasing 4 percentage points but still leading the County with 50% of all listings in contract as of November 1.
Marin County SFR and Condo reports showing all price points with an increase in percentage in contract as of November 3. Condo's under $1million, led by the Novato REO market, particularly strong at 46% in contract. SFR's under $1million at 42% in contract. See City-by-City Report for variation by city/town.
Current average Days on Market (DOM) for SFR's is 106 vs. 86 at this time last year.
For Condo's it is 116 DOM vs. 104 in Oct. '08. SFR YTD units sold at 1312 on Nov 3 vs 1393 same time last year, or -5.8%---- compares favorably with -10% at last report. Condo YTD units sold at 407 vs 426 last year or -4.5%-- a slight improvement over last report's -4.8%. Average sold prices still down with SFR's at $996,458 vs. $1,298,170 last year and Condo's at $372,301 vs. '08's $495,281. Remember, this is partially a function of market-mix (meaning that lower-end homes were a higher percentage of sold homes) and not all price decline.
Market conditions look hopeful. May be anticipating economic recovery. Home Buyer Tax Credit extension approved by Congress goes to President Obama for signature.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
