Hello Everyone,
Happy New Year, and welcome to 2010!
Emerging from the traditionally quiet period of the year (regarding real estate, that is), we see that is has not been all that quiet. Numbers of accepted offers for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condominiums were double or more than in the same period in the last two years. Months Supply of Inventory at the end of December was 3.5 for SFR's and 4.1 for Condo's, lowest in over two years. Total SFR units sold finished 2009 at 1656, 5.5% more than 2008. Condo's at 497 sold for the year down just 2% from the year-ago figure. Some of this activity, no doubt, due to buyers desire to get taxpayer credits while they last and to take advantage of historically low interest rates which are bound to go up sooner or later. The question is when. Will the Fed start to raise interest rates while employment is still at 10% +? Is there another round of foreclosures coming that will depress housing prices further. As the toy crystal ball I had as a child was fond of saying: "answer hazy, ask again later". One thing is for sure. Buyer taxpayer credits will end, and interest rates will eventually rise. Prices and interest rates are excellent now. Many think this is a great time to buy. Time will tell.
City-by-City report out this week shows percentage in contract down in 5 Marin cities and towns, up in 7, and essentially unchanged in one (San Rafael, 37%). Belvedere lowest at 14.29% in contract, even after a 2 point rise, while Fairfax has the top spot at 59%, and still-hot Novato comes in a close 2nd at 53.6%. Pricing still critical in all Marin County markets, with overpriced listings sitting on the market and eventually withdrawn, cancelled, or selling for significantly less than properties "priced right" from the beginning. No time to push the envelope or test the market. Pricing, preparation, and presentation still critical factors in listing and selling a home. Sellers advised to seek the advice of experienced local REALTORS who know the market.
Market Action Report for both SFR's and Condo's attached again this month. Please take a look and let me know if you like these reports and find them useful.
2010 promises to be an interesting, and perhaps a pivotal year for real estate. It will be interesting to see what happens.
More later---
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Sunday, December 20, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 12.19.2009
Hello Everyone,
Marin IJ ran a front page article 12.17.09 that was unusually well-balanced, at least after one got past the headline:
Marin home prices buck Bay Area trend of increases
http://www.marinij.com/marinnews/ci_14018255
The article credited some of the information used to La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, which published an online article a couple of days later.
Bay Area home sales and median price top last year again
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091217.aspx
Read the articles for full details but the general 'drift' was:
Bay area home prices down from October, but up from November '08, the 2nd month in a row of year over year price increases; Bay Area foreclosure sales in November represented 32.5% of all sales activity, up slightly from October, but down substantially from 46.8% in November of '08; DQ article discussed general speculation and some concern over a possible 'shadow inventory' that may result in one more wave of coming foreclosures but noted foreclosure resales have declined this year due to shift in tactics by lenders to the pursuit of short sales and loan modifications rather than foreclosures in many instances. DQ also noted 'jumbo' loan availability improving at 29.5% of all purchases in November, down from 30.9% in October but up from only 24% a year ago. (Limited availability of these loans still acting as a drag on the upper end market here in Marin) Article also noted 22.4% of all BayArea real estate transactions in November appeared to be cash sales, and 15.7% of sales were to absentee buyers.
Lots of activity brewing here in Marin belies the belief that the buyers have all shuffled off for a long winter's nap. Inventory low, activity impressive.
Single Family Residence (SFR):
Sold in November '09- 167, In Nov. '08-- 90, In Nov. '07 140
Accepted offers Nov '09- 230, In Nov. '08-89, In Nov. '07 142
Accepted offers to new listings Nov '09- 129.9%, Nov. 08-56.3%, Nov '07- 88.8%
Accepted offers to inventory Nov '09-27.8%, Nov. '08- 9.1%, Nov. '07 16.7%
Months Supply of inventory Nov '09- 5, Nov.'08- 10.9, Nov. 07-6.1
Number of SFR's sold YTD as of December 15 at 1559, finally catching up to and surpassing the YTD figure for the same date in '08, drawing ahead by 2.4%
Condominiums:
Have slowed their formerly torrid pace during the last couple of months, with YTD unit sales at 477 as of Dec 15 vs. 491 at the same time in '08, down 2.8%. Current high levels of accepted offers and low months supply of inventory indicate lots of action still taking place in the Marin County condo market.
Sold in November '09- 41, In Nov. '08-- 47, In Nov. '07 35
Accepted offers Nov '09- 81, In Nov. '08-47, In Nov. '07 28
Accepted offers to new listings Nov '09- 132.8%, Nov. 08-67.1%, Nov '07- 39.4%
Accepted offers to inventory Nov '09-38.8%, Nov. '08- 15.4%, Nov. '07 8.9%
Months Supply of inventory Nov '09- 5.1, Nov.'08- 6.5, Nov. 07-8.9
(Data immediately above courtesy of Coldwell Banker MarketQuest. Data believed accurate but not verified)
Remember when looking at sales figures and price levels that 50.8% of all SFR's and 63% of all condo's sold in the County in November were in Novato and San Rafael. This significantly skews the averages and the medians. Your experienced local REALTOR can help you with current values in your neighborhood.
Dow Jones ended the week down 1.4 %, the biggest decline in over a month, according to the 12.19 Wall Street Journal, which went on to say "an earnings-fueled rally bolstered technology stocks" Friday, helping the market to recover partially from a 44 point drop earlier in the day which, it said, was caused by concern about "sovereign credit and the global economy". These kinds of concerns will be around for a while and 2010 shaping up to be an interesting and very possibly pivotal year. We will see what happens.
More next time----.
Until then, best wishes to all for the Holidays and the New Year,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marin IJ ran a front page article 12.17.09 that was unusually well-balanced, at least after one got past the headline:
Marin home prices buck Bay Area trend of increases
http://www.marinij.com/marinnews/ci_14018255
The article credited some of the information used to La Jolla-based MDA DataQuick, which published an online article a couple of days later.
Bay Area home sales and median price top last year again
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091217.aspx
Read the articles for full details but the general 'drift' was:
Bay area home prices down from October, but up from November '08, the 2nd month in a row of year over year price increases; Bay Area foreclosure sales in November represented 32.5% of all sales activity, up slightly from October, but down substantially from 46.8% in November of '08; DQ article discussed general speculation and some concern over a possible 'shadow inventory' that may result in one more wave of coming foreclosures but noted foreclosure resales have declined this year due to shift in tactics by lenders to the pursuit of short sales and loan modifications rather than foreclosures in many instances. DQ also noted 'jumbo' loan availability improving at 29.5% of all purchases in November, down from 30.9% in October but up from only 24% a year ago. (Limited availability of these loans still acting as a drag on the upper end market here in Marin) Article also noted 22.4% of all BayArea real estate transactions in November appeared to be cash sales, and 15.7% of sales were to absentee buyers.
Lots of activity brewing here in Marin belies the belief that the buyers have all shuffled off for a long winter's nap. Inventory low, activity impressive.
Single Family Residence (SFR):
Sold in November '09- 167, In Nov. '08-- 90, In Nov. '07 140
Accepted offers Nov '09- 230, In Nov. '08-89, In Nov. '07 142
Accepted offers to new listings Nov '09- 129.9%, Nov. 08-56.3%, Nov '07- 88.8%
Accepted offers to inventory Nov '09-27.8%, Nov. '08- 9.1%, Nov. '07 16.7%
Months Supply of inventory Nov '09- 5, Nov.'08- 10.9, Nov. 07-6.1
Number of SFR's sold YTD as of December 15 at 1559, finally catching up to and surpassing the YTD figure for the same date in '08, drawing ahead by 2.4%
Condominiums:
Have slowed their formerly torrid pace during the last couple of months, with YTD unit sales at 477 as of Dec 15 vs. 491 at the same time in '08, down 2.8%. Current high levels of accepted offers and low months supply of inventory indicate lots of action still taking place in the Marin County condo market.
Sold in November '09- 41, In Nov. '08-- 47, In Nov. '07 35
Accepted offers Nov '09- 81, In Nov. '08-47, In Nov. '07 28
Accepted offers to new listings Nov '09- 132.8%, Nov. 08-67.1%, Nov '07- 39.4%
Accepted offers to inventory Nov '09-38.8%, Nov. '08- 15.4%, Nov. '07 8.9%
Months Supply of inventory Nov '09- 5.1, Nov.'08- 6.5, Nov. 07-8.9
(Data immediately above courtesy of Coldwell Banker MarketQuest. Data believed accurate but not verified)
Remember when looking at sales figures and price levels that 50.8% of all SFR's and 63% of all condo's sold in the County in November were in Novato and San Rafael. This significantly skews the averages and the medians. Your experienced local REALTOR can help you with current values in your neighborhood.
Dow Jones ended the week down 1.4 %, the biggest decline in over a month, according to the 12.19 Wall Street Journal, which went on to say "an earnings-fueled rally bolstered technology stocks" Friday, helping the market to recover partially from a 44 point drop earlier in the day which, it said, was caused by concern about "sovereign credit and the global economy". These kinds of concerns will be around for a while and 2010 shaping up to be an interesting and very possibly pivotal year. We will see what happens.
More next time----.
Until then, best wishes to all for the Holidays and the New Year,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets see http://www.fredanlyan.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, December 6, 2009
12.6.2009
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows inventory down in every city/town covered by the report. Percentage in contract up in 8 of the 13 covered locations. Total Single Family Homes sold YTD as of Dec 1 was 1472 vs. 1481 at the same time last year or minus only 6/10 of one percent--- a nice catch-up over the last couple of months. Condo YTD unit sales at 451 vs. 2008's 474, holding steady since last report at -4.8% compared to a year ago.
Reports on U.S. economy unexpectedly good last week, especially jobs report. This could be bad news for future interest rates, including mortgages. We will see. Some folks still worried about "shadow inventory" of homes about to be foreclosed upon or recently foreclosed coming on the market and further depressing prices. One never knows for sure, but percentage in contract for every price point of both SFR's and Condo's is up since last report. SFR's under $1million at over 46% and Condo's over 47%. These are very high levels! Percentage in contract starting to inch up for pricier homes in the $1million to $3million-plus range as well.
Market slower now as we approach the Holidays, but serious buyers and sellers are still in the game. As I have said here before, a great time for buyers to make deals with less competition from those who are taking time off from their search until after the New Year.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all for the Holiday Season,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Monthly City-by-City report out this week shows inventory down in every city/town covered by the report. Percentage in contract up in 8 of the 13 covered locations. Total Single Family Homes sold YTD as of Dec 1 was 1472 vs. 1481 at the same time last year or minus only 6/10 of one percent--- a nice catch-up over the last couple of months. Condo YTD unit sales at 451 vs. 2008's 474, holding steady since last report at -4.8% compared to a year ago.
Reports on U.S. economy unexpectedly good last week, especially jobs report. This could be bad news for future interest rates, including mortgages. We will see. Some folks still worried about "shadow inventory" of homes about to be foreclosed upon or recently foreclosed coming on the market and further depressing prices. One never knows for sure, but percentage in contract for every price point of both SFR's and Condo's is up since last report. SFR's under $1million at over 46% and Condo's over 47%. These are very high levels! Percentage in contract starting to inch up for pricier homes in the $1million to $3million-plus range as well.
Market slower now as we approach the Holidays, but serious buyers and sellers are still in the game. As I have said here before, a great time for buyers to make deals with less competition from those who are taking time off from their search until after the New Year.
more next time-----
Until then, best wishes to all for the Holiday Season,
Fred
Sunday, November 22, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 11.21.09
Hello Everyone,
The week ended on mixed news.
The Marin IJ ran a welcome, though recently rare headline Friday November 20, "Marin home prices,sales rise", citing year over year increases from October '08 to October '09 both in Marin and for much of the Bay Area.
An article by San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, Thursday, November 19, titled "Bay Area median sale price tops year-ago level for first time since '07" reported "The Bay Area's housing market continued to ease back toward normalcy last month as fewer distressed properties sold-----. The nine-county region posted a modest year-over-year gain in its median sale price-the first in nearly two years-----."
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091119.aspx
Here in Marin County sales of Single Family Residences under $1million continued to be hot and hotter, with 264 of 567 (46.5%) MLS-listed homes in contract on November 17. Homes on the upper end a different story with 19% of $1million-$2million homes in contract, 14% of $2million-$3million homes, and only 9% of homes over $3million. Year-to-date sales of SFR's in the County at 1390 compared to 1429 at the same time last year, or -2.7%, a significant and continued improvement from the -5.8% at last report. Average days on market at 106 compared to 87 last year at this time. Average list price $1,053,208 and average sold price $1,000,819.
Condominium inventory remained roughly static at 305 vs. 309 at last report. 288 of these were under $1million, with the average list at $391,046 and the average sale at $377,874. Of these, 135 units, or 46.88% were in contract on November 17. Out of the other 17 "high-end" units, only 1 was in contract. As of November 17, 428 units had sold YTD vs. 450 at the same time last year, or -4.8%, slightly less than the -4.5% at last report.
Marin County real estate market split between brisk under-$1million market with buyers feeling more of a sense of urgency now, and more sluggish upper-end market where opportunity still abounds. A story circulating last week had a property formerly listed at over $4million going into contract at under $3million. These deals will not last forever! Experienced local REALTORS know the difference between a bargain and a white elephant. Let one of them help you!
More next time---
Until then,
Happy Thanksgiving to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
The week ended on mixed news.
The Marin IJ ran a welcome, though recently rare headline Friday November 20, "Marin home prices,sales rise", citing year over year increases from October '08 to October '09 both in Marin and for much of the Bay Area.
An article by San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, Thursday, November 19, titled "Bay Area median sale price tops year-ago level for first time since '07" reported "The Bay Area's housing market continued to ease back toward normalcy last month as fewer distressed properties sold-----. The nine-county region posted a modest year-over-year gain in its median sale price-the first in nearly two years-----."
Full text of article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091119.aspx
Here in Marin County sales of Single Family Residences under $1million continued to be hot and hotter, with 264 of 567 (46.5%) MLS-listed homes in contract on November 17. Homes on the upper end a different story with 19% of $1million-$2million homes in contract, 14% of $2million-$3million homes, and only 9% of homes over $3million. Year-to-date sales of SFR's in the County at 1390 compared to 1429 at the same time last year, or -2.7%, a significant and continued improvement from the -5.8% at last report. Average days on market at 106 compared to 87 last year at this time. Average list price $1,053,208 and average sold price $1,000,819.
Condominium inventory remained roughly static at 305 vs. 309 at last report. 288 of these were under $1million, with the average list at $391,046 and the average sale at $377,874. Of these, 135 units, or 46.88% were in contract on November 17. Out of the other 17 "high-end" units, only 1 was in contract. As of November 17, 428 units had sold YTD vs. 450 at the same time last year, or -4.8%, slightly less than the -4.5% at last report.
Marin County real estate market split between brisk under-$1million market with buyers feeling more of a sense of urgency now, and more sluggish upper-end market where opportunity still abounds. A story circulating last week had a property formerly listed at over $4million going into contract at under $3million. These deals will not last forever! Experienced local REALTORS know the difference between a bargain and a white elephant. Let one of them help you!
More next time---
Until then,
Happy Thanksgiving to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Friday, November 6, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 11.6.2009
Hello Everyone,
According to Coldwell Banker's MarketQuest program, Marin County Single Family Residences for sale at the end of October represented just a 5.6 month supply. Condo's even lower with only a 4.4 months worth of inventory. Just last month there was an 8 month supply of SFR's and a 5.3 month supply of condo's! Accepted offers for the month for SFR's are at 137% of new listings and 35% of inventory compares to 61% and 16% last month. October Accepted offers on Condo's at 103. This is also 137% of new listings and it is 48% of existing inventory. Compares to September's 97.5% and 29.6%. Bottom line--- increasing sales and decreasing inventory.
Listing agents starting to set offer dates again for attractively priced homes, especially REO's (bank-owned real estate). Many of these are attracting multiple offers which often go over asking price but not necessarily by a large margin. One listing agent in Novato recently had multiple offers on a property, had the deal fall through twice. The property had multiple offers each of three times it was on the market. It closed escrow on the third try, over asking price. Especially in Novato, cash is king. Investors offering all cash deals or large cash down payments, quick closes, sometimes as short as 7 days. Buyers well-advised to write good solid offers but not to feel pressed into situations they are not comfortable with.
City-by-City report out this week shows 11 of 13 covered cities and towns increased percentage in contract. Greenbrae and Novato bucking the trend with decreases but probably not tremendously significant. Greenbrae most likely the result of small sample size and Novato decreasing 4 percentage points but still leading the County with 50% of all listings in contract as of November 1.
Marin County SFR and Condo reports showing all price points with an increase in percentage in contract as of November 3. Condo's under $1million, led by the Novato REO market, particularly strong at 46% in contract. SFR's under $1million at 42% in contract. See City-by-City Report for variation by city/town.
Current average Days on Market (DOM) for SFR's is 106 vs. 86 at this time last year.
For Condo's it is 116 DOM vs. 104 in Oct. '08. SFR YTD units sold at 1312 on Nov 3 vs 1393 same time last year, or -5.8%---- compares favorably with -10% at last report. Condo YTD units sold at 407 vs 426 last year or -4.5%-- a slight improvement over last report's -4.8%. Average sold prices still down with SFR's at $996,458 vs. $1,298,170 last year and Condo's at $372,301 vs. '08's $495,281. Remember, this is partially a function of market-mix (meaning that lower-end homes were a higher percentage of sold homes) and not all price decline.
Market conditions look hopeful. May be anticipating economic recovery. Home Buyer Tax Credit extension approved by Congress goes to President Obama for signature.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
According to Coldwell Banker's MarketQuest program, Marin County Single Family Residences for sale at the end of October represented just a 5.6 month supply. Condo's even lower with only a 4.4 months worth of inventory. Just last month there was an 8 month supply of SFR's and a 5.3 month supply of condo's! Accepted offers for the month for SFR's are at 137% of new listings and 35% of inventory compares to 61% and 16% last month. October Accepted offers on Condo's at 103. This is also 137% of new listings and it is 48% of existing inventory. Compares to September's 97.5% and 29.6%. Bottom line--- increasing sales and decreasing inventory.
Listing agents starting to set offer dates again for attractively priced homes, especially REO's (bank-owned real estate). Many of these are attracting multiple offers which often go over asking price but not necessarily by a large margin. One listing agent in Novato recently had multiple offers on a property, had the deal fall through twice. The property had multiple offers each of three times it was on the market. It closed escrow on the third try, over asking price. Especially in Novato, cash is king. Investors offering all cash deals or large cash down payments, quick closes, sometimes as short as 7 days. Buyers well-advised to write good solid offers but not to feel pressed into situations they are not comfortable with.
City-by-City report out this week shows 11 of 13 covered cities and towns increased percentage in contract. Greenbrae and Novato bucking the trend with decreases but probably not tremendously significant. Greenbrae most likely the result of small sample size and Novato decreasing 4 percentage points but still leading the County with 50% of all listings in contract as of November 1.
Marin County SFR and Condo reports showing all price points with an increase in percentage in contract as of November 3. Condo's under $1million, led by the Novato REO market, particularly strong at 46% in contract. SFR's under $1million at 42% in contract. See City-by-City Report for variation by city/town.
Current average Days on Market (DOM) for SFR's is 106 vs. 86 at this time last year.
For Condo's it is 116 DOM vs. 104 in Oct. '08. SFR YTD units sold at 1312 on Nov 3 vs 1393 same time last year, or -5.8%---- compares favorably with -10% at last report. Condo YTD units sold at 407 vs 426 last year or -4.5%-- a slight improvement over last report's -4.8%. Average sold prices still down with SFR's at $996,458 vs. $1,298,170 last year and Condo's at $372,301 vs. '08's $495,281. Remember, this is partially a function of market-mix (meaning that lower-end homes were a higher percentage of sold homes) and not all price decline.
Market conditions look hopeful. May be anticipating economic recovery. Home Buyer Tax Credit extension approved by Congress goes to President Obama for signature.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Monday, October 19, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 10.18.2009
Hello Everyone,
October 16, 2009, Dow Jones closes at 9995, pulling back slightly from Thursday's 1-year high close of 10,062. Marin IJ pours cold water on the nascent flames with front page headline "Tough month for Marin real estate". The article compares September's real estate sales to those of August. A more appropriate comparison would be to September of 2008. That comparison would show activity up considerably while prices are admittedly down due to sales of bank-owned property and the sluggishness of the upper end of the market. IJ article notes "---Marin bucked an upward trend in home sales elsewhere in the Bay area". According to an October 15 article by La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick information services, the average sales volume decline in the Bay Area comparing Sept 08 to Sept. 09 is 8.4%, while Marin County declined only 3.5%. The article states that the median price decline for the area was -8.8% while Marin declined only 6.5%. Full text of the article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091015.aspx
NRT MarketQuest reveals the following statistics:
Single Family Residences: Accepted offers in Sept '08=143, in August '09, 207, and in Sept '09, 244. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings in Sept '08 at 49% while Sept '09 at 80.8%. Sales down a bit from Sept '09's 149 units to this September's 143 units.
Condo's: Accepted offers in Sept '08=58, in August '09, 70, and in Sept '09, 89. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings in Sept '08 at 55.2% while Sept '09 at 106%. Sales down a bit from Sept '09's 55 units to this September's 50 units. Sold median price of condo's at $395K in September of '09 actually up over both August '09 at $375K and Sept '08 at $325K.
These facts do not seem to warrant front page doom and gloom. Under- $1million sector of the market at a very robust 41.25% in contract for Single Family Residences and 43.71% in contract for condo's. The big question is when sales in the upper end of the market will re-ignite. This segment is mostly SFR's, as very few condo's in this price range, usually fewer than 20 units at any given time. Answer revolves around availability of "Jumbo" loans which have been scarce since the financial meltdown last year. Major opportunity still exists for all-cash buyers of high-end homes as well as those with large down-payments and exemplary credit/earnings.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see: http://www.fredanlyan.com
October 16, 2009, Dow Jones closes at 9995, pulling back slightly from Thursday's 1-year high close of 10,062. Marin IJ pours cold water on the nascent flames with front page headline "Tough month for Marin real estate". The article compares September's real estate sales to those of August. A more appropriate comparison would be to September of 2008. That comparison would show activity up considerably while prices are admittedly down due to sales of bank-owned property and the sluggishness of the upper end of the market. IJ article notes "---Marin bucked an upward trend in home sales elsewhere in the Bay area". According to an October 15 article by La Jolla, CA-based DataQuick information services, the average sales volume decline in the Bay Area comparing Sept 08 to Sept. 09 is 8.4%, while Marin County declined only 3.5%. The article states that the median price decline for the area was -8.8% while Marin declined only 6.5%. Full text of the article available at:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay091015.aspx
NRT MarketQuest reveals the following statistics:
Single Family Residences: Accepted offers in Sept '08=143, in August '09, 207, and in Sept '09, 244. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings in Sept '08 at 49% while Sept '09 at 80.8%. Sales down a bit from Sept '09's 149 units to this September's 143 units.
Condo's: Accepted offers in Sept '08=58, in August '09, 70, and in Sept '09, 89. Ratio of accepted offers to new listings in Sept '08 at 55.2% while Sept '09 at 106%. Sales down a bit from Sept '09's 55 units to this September's 50 units. Sold median price of condo's at $395K in September of '09 actually up over both August '09 at $375K and Sept '08 at $325K.
These facts do not seem to warrant front page doom and gloom. Under- $1million sector of the market at a very robust 41.25% in contract for Single Family Residences and 43.71% in contract for condo's. The big question is when sales in the upper end of the market will re-ignite. This segment is mostly SFR's, as very few condo's in this price range, usually fewer than 20 units at any given time. Answer revolves around availability of "Jumbo" loans which have been scarce since the financial meltdown last year. Major opportunity still exists for all-cash buyers of high-end homes as well as those with large down-payments and exemplary credit/earnings.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
for access to spreadsheets please see: http://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, October 4, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics
10.4.09
Hello Everyone,
Unemployment up, Dow Jones down. October 2 Wall Street Journal runs a headline on the "Marketplace" front page: "Cruel September for Car Makers" citing sales drops of of 45% for GM and 42% for Chrysler following the termination of the "Clunker" rebate program. An article in the "Money and Investing" section of the same paper announces "Tax Free Bonds Reach a 40-Year Low", goes on to cite high demand and limited supply and predicts the trend won't end anytime soon. Just below that, another article titled "Mortgage Rates Below 5%"--- the lowest since last May 28, according to the article. Fed Open Market Committee on Sep 23 announces its decision to hold interest rates at historic lows but concerns about inflation spark speculation that this party won't last forever. Everyone hedging their bets, not knowing for sure what will happen next.
What we know for sure is that there will be an economic recovery. What we don't know is the timing. Lots of talk among buyers and sellers and even among real estate professionals about a possible next wave of bank-owned property hitting the market and about whether the housing crisis that began in the sub-prime markets will bleed over into the upper end. Uncertainty is the mother of opportunity. Many investors jumping in to the real estate market along with those just looking for a home they can afford. Some still waiting on the sidelines waiting for a better deal. This may or may not materialize. As a friend of mine is fond of saying "better is the enemy of good"!
What went up and what went down:
Marin County "City-by-City" report shows out of 13 communities monitored, 8 increased their percentage in contract since last month, 4 declined, and 1 remained about the same. Sausalito, Belvedere and Tiburon offering the best opportunities right now with 14.1%,12.8%, and 11.1%, respectively, in contract.
Marin County Single Family Residences showing fairly stable percentages in contract across all price ranges with only minor changes. Inventory up slightly from 1199 at last report to 1213 units on Sept 28. With the exception of certain very desirable properties, homes in the $2million-plus range continue to offer major opportunities to well-heeled buyers. Overall YTD units sold at 1119 on Sept 29 vs. 1253 on the same date last year, or -10.62%---- another increase from last report's -11.3%, so headed in an encouraging direction.
Condo's inventory down 1 unit from 324 to 323 while 4 additional units in contract lifted the overall percentage in contract modestly from 40.43% to 41.8%. Average Days on Market for Marin Condo's at 116 and average sales price at $375,522 compared to 105 and $504,385 last year at the same time. Much of the price disparity a product of market-mix, with lots of lower-priced bank-owned properties populating the lower end of the market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
Unemployment up, Dow Jones down. October 2 Wall Street Journal runs a headline on the "Marketplace" front page: "Cruel September for Car Makers" citing sales drops of of 45% for GM and 42% for Chrysler following the termination of the "Clunker" rebate program. An article in the "Money and Investing" section of the same paper announces "Tax Free Bonds Reach a 40-Year Low", goes on to cite high demand and limited supply and predicts the trend won't end anytime soon. Just below that, another article titled "Mortgage Rates Below 5%"--- the lowest since last May 28, according to the article. Fed Open Market Committee on Sep 23 announces its decision to hold interest rates at historic lows but concerns about inflation spark speculation that this party won't last forever. Everyone hedging their bets, not knowing for sure what will happen next.
What we know for sure is that there will be an economic recovery. What we don't know is the timing. Lots of talk among buyers and sellers and even among real estate professionals about a possible next wave of bank-owned property hitting the market and about whether the housing crisis that began in the sub-prime markets will bleed over into the upper end. Uncertainty is the mother of opportunity. Many investors jumping in to the real estate market along with those just looking for a home they can afford. Some still waiting on the sidelines waiting for a better deal. This may or may not materialize. As a friend of mine is fond of saying "better is the enemy of good"!
What went up and what went down:
Marin County "City-by-City" report shows out of 13 communities monitored, 8 increased their percentage in contract since last month, 4 declined, and 1 remained about the same. Sausalito, Belvedere and Tiburon offering the best opportunities right now with 14.1%,12.8%, and 11.1%, respectively, in contract.
Marin County Single Family Residences showing fairly stable percentages in contract across all price ranges with only minor changes. Inventory up slightly from 1199 at last report to 1213 units on Sept 28. With the exception of certain very desirable properties, homes in the $2million-plus range continue to offer major opportunities to well-heeled buyers. Overall YTD units sold at 1119 on Sept 29 vs. 1253 on the same date last year, or -10.62%---- another increase from last report's -11.3%, so headed in an encouraging direction.
Condo's inventory down 1 unit from 324 to 323 while 4 additional units in contract lifted the overall percentage in contract modestly from 40.43% to 41.8%. Average Days on Market for Marin Condo's at 116 and average sales price at $375,522 compared to 105 and $504,385 last year at the same time. Much of the price disparity a product of market-mix, with lots of lower-priced bank-owned properties populating the lower end of the market.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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