The Anlyan Report 5.19.14 Marin Market: Statistics Show Spring Sales Sizzle!

In an article dated May 14, 2014, San Diego-based Data Quick, a real estate news service, noted that the 19.8% March-April increase in Bay Area home sales this year significantly exceeded the historical 4.8% average. In spite of this, the 7,555 units sold still fell below the average of 8,978 April sales going back to 1988. According to the article, Bay Area April home sales have ranged from the low of 5,636 in 1995 to the peak of 14,430 in 2004, but have not reached the historical average of 8,978 in any month for more than 8 years.
The article goes on to note that distressed home sales (short sales and foreclosures) continue to fall, and accounted for about 7.4% of the April market in the Bay Area--- down from 8.9% in March and 20.1% a year ago. It notes that investors accounted for about 22.9% of sales in April, down from 25.1% in March and 28.3% a year ago.
A chart featured in the article shows Marin County home prices rose about 4.5% from April 2013 to April 2014--- significantly less than the 19.6% Bay Area increase. The article attributed approximately 3/4 of the year-to-year price rise to an increase in home values, with the rest being due to changes in market mix of homes for sale-- that is, more high-priced homes sold this year than last.
Here in Marin, we checked the local statistics and found that of the 13 cities and towns we follow, 4 were Very Strong Sellers' Markets, with over  56% of homes listed on the MLS in contract as of May 19----Hot, Hot, Hot! Greenbrae led the pack at 73.33%. Sausalito was close behind, at 65.9%, with both San Anselmo and Novato having approximately 57% of listed homes in contract. San Rafael, at 53.23% is a Strong Sellers market! Fairfax (44%), Mill Valley (43%) and Ross (38.8%) are all Sellers Markets. Potential sellers in these markets--- perhaps it is time to take the big leap and place your home on the market while the tide is rising!
Buyers, don't give up. Corte Madera (33.33%) and Larkspur (32%) are Balanced Markets, and for those bargain hunters with a taste for luxury, Belvedere (25.9%), Kentfield (28.57%) and Tiburon (29.33%) are all Buyers' Markets! Act fast- probably won't last.
More next time. Until then, Happy Home Hunting. Call me with your questions--I'm always glad to hear from readers!
Best wishes to all,
Fred 

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 11.24.13

This month's report begins with a couple of timely and relevant Holiday real estate stories. The author promises that there are actual statistics contained in this report, and those who are eager to find them sooner, rather than later, may, of course, scroll down!

People often ask me about the state of our local real estate market. This year, I've been telling them about the tremendous opportunities for sellers due to the low inventory of homes for sale, escalating prices, and frequent multiple-offer situations. Last week, on my way to a class, I picked up my friend Anne in the East Bay, and it wasn't too long before the conversation turned towards real estate. I told her things were slowing down a bit, with lots of buyers and sellers getting ready to take a few weeks off for the Holidays. "No!" she said  "Tell them this is the best time!" "When I was shopping for my condo, I even went out on New Year's Day." She gave me permission to quote her, so there you have it--- from a successful home buyer straight to you! This is a great opportunity to make an end-run around crowds of competing buyers to get the home you want. As baseball hall-of-famer Willie Keeler used to say "Hit ‘em where they ain't".

This week, I walked in to the monthly Marin County Buy/Sell lunchtime networking meeting. Led by a well-known local broker, the meeting opens with a recap of the monthly and year-to-date statistics for the Marin real estate market. This information told us that the inventory of homes for sale is down to just over a two month supply (approximately 4.5 months is considered healthy). On average, recent home sales in Marin have been at about 99% of initial asking price. Because these are averages, this means that a substantial number of homes are selling for significantly over asking price. So the well-known broker asked the assembled agents-"Where are all the sellers?" "The Holidays", replied a chorus of agents. My high school history teacher was fond of saying "A word to the wise is sufficient." With such a lack of housing inventory, sellers have an unusual opportunity to sell at excellent prices, with minimal competition.

According to a November 13 report by DataQuick, a San Diego, CA-based real estate information service, Marin County home sales in October were 306 units, down 8.7% from the same period a year earlier (most likely due to lack of  inventory!), but prices were up, with the median price of those homes at $805,500, vs. $660,000 during the year-earlier period. The report estimates that, Bay Area-wide, 75% of the year-over-year price increases are due to appreciation in value, while the other 25% is attributable to changes in market mix--- meaning more expensive homes and fewer distressed properties are being sold.

Here in Marin, the inventory shortage brings sellers an abundance of opportunities. As of November 24, 2282 single family residences (SFR's) and 613 condominiums had sold, year-to-date. This compared to 2134 SFR's and 567 condo's on the same date last year. And this was in spite of the severe shortage of available homes that caused prices to rise dramatically, particularly in the spring and early summer.

 Of the 13 Marin county communities we follow, we're currently identifying 10 as some type of sellers' market. In these communities, the percentage of MLS-listed homes in contract as of 11.24.13 ranged from a high of 57% (Corte Madera) to a low of 3.3% (Belvedere). Here's the ranking:
Town/City       % in Contract   
Corte Madera      57.14%
Novato                55.10%
San Anselmo       54%
Fairfax                53.57%
San Rafael           51.55%
Greenbrae            46.67%
Mill Valley            45.56%
Kentfield              42.86%
Ross                    33.5%
Sausalito              37.04%
Tiburon                22.02%
Larkspur               15.14% (last month was 46%)
Belvedere             3.33%

Across the County, the lower-priced homes (admittedly a relative term!) sold most briskly.
In the $0-$999K price range, 54% of SFR'S and 51.8% of condo's listed on MLS were in contract.
In the $1M to $1.99M price range, it was 43.8% for SFR's, but condo's came in at only 28.57%--- Buyers' opportunity!
The $2M to $2.99 M price range showed 24% of SFR's in contract--- A Buyers' Market!! There was only one condo in that price range, and it was in contract, so 100%!
There were no condo's in the over-$3M segment, but only 8.49% of the SFR's were in contract, making it a huge opportunity for qualified buyers in the price range. If you're one of those fortunate folks, take a look at the available inventory. Your local REALTOR might be able to help you give yourself the double gift of a new home and a great deal with $ in the bank. If you're a buyer, stay optimistic and stay engaged----definitely don't take the Holidays off, because your competition most likely will, providing you with a significant advantage.

Whatever you do, have a safe and happy Holiday Season!

More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,

Fred

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 10.20.13

According to an October 17 report by DataQuick, a San Diego-based real estate news service, a total of 300 homes sold in Marin County in September, at a median price of $750,000. The figure includes both single family homes and condo's and reflects an increase of 15.4% in price and 11.9% in numbers of units for sale, compared to the same period last year. In August of this year, the comparable figures were 350 units sold at a median price of $760,000. The article notes that in the nine-county Bay Area real estate market, September marked the second month of a month-to-month decline in the median sales price which, it stated, reached a high of $665,000 in June/July of 2007, and a low of $290,000 in March of '09.
Although the median price of Bay Area homes has increased year-over-year, every month for the last 18 months, DataQuick's president, John Walsh, predicts "It's likely we'll see year-over-year price gains trend lower for the forseeable future". This, the article states, is a result of higher mortgage rates, increasing inventory of homes for sale, and decreasing purchases by investors, as well as changes in market mix, or the types of homes being sold. For more details, see the complete article.
Further research into the current statistics for Marin County reveals that, overall, there are approximately 878 active listings on the Marin MLS for Single Family Residences and Condo's. 347 of these, or 41%, are in contract, indicating a slight sellers market for the County as a whole. When we checked the numbers back in July, 386 of 878 listed properties were in contract,  so market activity, though not slowing dramatically, has dropped back just a bit, creating an opportunity for some buyers who may have felt buffeted by the frenzied pace of offers and sales earlier in the year. The numbers, since they are averages, can obscure the fact that, within the County, individual market can vary greatly.
Currently, the most active markets are: Larkspur-- 9 of 16 listed properties in contract, or 56%; Sausalito--- 20 of 36 properties in contract, or 55.5%;Corte Madera, at 53.8%, with 14 of 26 listed properties in contract; Novato---82 of 163 properties in contract for 50.3%; San Rafael, with 89 of 186, or 47.8%; Fairfax 45.16%; San Anselmo, 43.9%. These are hot sellers' markets with lots of buyer competition, but good homes can be found, with persistence and the aid of an experienced local REALTOR.
Currently active markets with slightly less pressure and competition are: ; Greenbrae at 36.36% in contract, and Mill Valley, at 34.78%.
The markets with the lowest percentage in contract and therefore presenting the greatest opportunity for buyers, albeit mostly on the higher end are:  Kentfield, at 29.17% in contract; Ross, 27.27%; Tiburon,23.4%; and, the Queen of them all, Belvedere, with only 9.3% of some admittedly very high-end homes in contract. These communities feature a preponderance of higher-priced homes. But, for the high-end buyer, the opportunities are real. For more details on specific communities, neighborhoods, and individual homes contact an experienced local REALTOR.
More next time!
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
visit my website at http://www.fredanlyan.com
or email fred@marinmodern.com
 

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate. 9.5.13

DataQuick, the La Jolla, CA-based real estate news service noted in an August 15 report that the number of homes sold in the Bay Area in July was the highest since 2005. According to the article, the 9,339 homes sold represented an increase of 18.3% from the previous month and a 13.3% increase over July of 2012. The article quotes Data Quick’s president, John Walsh, characterizing the current market not as a “frenzy”, but as a market that is in the process of “re-balancing” itself and “regaining lost ground”. According to the article, Mr. Walsh noted that  increasing prices would eventually attract more sellers, and the increased supply of homes for sale is expected to moderate future price increases.

Here in Marin County, there were 224 Single Family Residences (SFR) and 68 Condo’s sold in the month of August. This compares to 250 and 76 in July, a decrease of around 10.5%  for both categories. Sales mostly limited by lack of inventory, still following a long southward slide as many potential sellers continue to be reluctant to place their homes on the market and await further price appreciation. Inventory of homes for sale at the end of August was just 430 SFR’s and 74 Condo’s. This compares to August of ’12, when there were 822 SFR’s (66.1% drop) and 218 Condo’s (47.7% drop) available for sale. The supply of homes for sale in the County, characterized as Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) continues to decrease. At the end of August, it was 1.9 months for SFR’s and 1.1 months for Condo’s. This compares to 2.6 months (SFR) and 2.2 months (Condo) in July, and 3.5 months (SFR) and 3.2 months (Condo) in August of 2012. Days on Market (DOM) are also dramatically lower. The current 63 days for SFR’s and 47 for Condo’s represents a decrease of 29% (from 89 days) for SFR’s and 55% (from 105 days) for Condo’s compared to August of 2012.  Prices continue to increase as buyers compete for a limited number of listings. Price per square foot at the end of August averaged $527/sf for SFR’s and $400/sf for Condo’s. Compared to August of 2012, this represents an increase of 19% (from $443/sf) for SFR’s and 25.4% (from $319/sf) for Condo’s. At the end of August, the average SFR was selling for 100.9% of asking price, while Condo’s sold, on average for 104.4% of asking price.  

This is the long way of saying that the current real estate market in Marin is very competitive, with a shortage of homes  available for sale compared both to demand and to historical inventory levels. As a result, many buyers are paying 4 or 5 percent or more over asking price. Even 10% is not unusual. In spite of this, qualified buyers who are persistent are finding and buying homes, often after making several offers. Sellers who have been waiting may find that the current market offers the opportunity they've been seeking. Recommendation for both Buyers and Sellers: Call an experienced local REALTOR---- an invaluable asset this market!

The Anlyan Report 4.3.13. Market Sizzles, Buyers Battle, Sellers Sit and Wait???

Data Quick, a La Jolla, CA-based real estate information service, in a report dated March 14, 2013, noted the following about the Bay Area real estate market:

1. February’s median home prices up 24.6% compared to February of 2012. The Service attributed about half of the gain to price increased, and the rest to “market mix”, meaning that fewer low-priced distressed-property sales were taking place.
2. February foreclosure resales, at 13.6% of the Bay Area market, were down from 26.4% a year ago. Short sales, at 21.4% were also down substantially from the year-ago figure of 27%.
3. Absentee Buyers (mostly investors, according to the article) purchased 28.2% of Bay Area homes in February, paying a median price of $303,000. This compared to the same time last year when they represented 25.6% of the market and paid a median price of $245,000.

A chart accompanying the article noted Marin County February home sales of 201 units--- just 2 fewer than in February of 2012. But the median price rose 21.4%, from $535,500 to $650,000.

The Marin County City by City Report, out this week, shows 5 of the 13 cities and towns we follow to be Very Strong Sellers’ Markets, with 56% or more of listed properties in contract on April 1, 2013. Corte Madera led the pack, with 15 of 19 listed properties in contract, an incredible 78.95%! Novato was a close second, with 71.6%, or 106 of 148 listed homes in contract. Greenbrae came in third, at 66.7% (8 of 12 homes in contract). San Rafael, 4^th (106 of 169 properties in contract) at 62.7%, and San Anselmo rounded out the top 5, with 36 of 62 listed properties in contract, or 58.02%!

Mill Valley (54.88%), Fairfax, (54.55%), and Sausalito (54.29%) all tied for 6^th place. Ross was slightly below at 47.06%, followed by Tiburon (37%), Kentfield (35%), and finally, Belvedere, at 19%. These last four figures probably reflecting the fact that jumbo loans are still more difficult to obtain than standard financing. Well-qualified prospective buyers for these high-end communities would do well to make a move now rather than waiting until the housing recovery pushes these properties further up the ladder and possibly out of reach.

Low Marin County Housing inventory continues to challenge would-be buyers, with only 287 Single Family Residences (SFR) and 60 Condo’s available as of March 31. This compares to 448 SFR’s and 111 Condo’s in February, and 837 SFR’s and 223 Condo’s in March of 2012! Current inventory is down to 1.6 months for SFR’s and 1.1 month for Condo’s. Last year, in March, it was 4.5 months for SFR’s and 3.9 months for Condo’s. At some point, it makes sense that basic economics of supply and demand would entice more sellers to place their homes on the market--- but it hasn’t happened yet. There were 227 new listings for SFR’s and 61 for Condo’s in March. This compares to 303 and 75 in March of 2012. Attractive, well presented, and well-located new listings are being snapped up by buyers, who are competing with one another and often bidding up prices by 5-10% or even more. It is not unusual to see 4, 6, 10, or even more offers on desirable properties. Potential sellers who are weighing the options may want to contact their local REALTORS to get an idea of the current value of their homes. It may be a pleasant surprise!  

More next time--------

Until then, best wishes to all,

Fred  

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 1.29.13. Weather Cool, Market Hot!

 Of the 13 Marin County towns and cities we usually follow, 7 are now characterized as being "Very Strong Sellers' Markets"---- meaning that 56% or more of listings in those towns are in contract. Housing inventory in the County is incredibly low. At the end of December, Months' Supply of Inventory (MSI) was only 1.9 months for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condominiums. Reluctant Sellers continue to hold their properties off the market while waiting for higher home prices to arrive. That time may be here sooner than many people thought.
According to a January 16 article from Data Quick, a La Jolla,CA-based real estate news service, the median price of a Marin County home in December was up 27.6% from December 2011 (with about half the increase coming from appreciation, and the other half coming from a change in market mix, meaning more expensive homes are being sold) . This was just a few points off the Bay Area average appreciation of 32%--a year-over-year increase the Data Quick Article notes is "The highest in Data Quick's statistics, which go back to 1988". The article goes on to state that "the median reached a high of $665,000 in June/July 2007 and then fell to a low of $290,000 in March, 2009". The alticle also notes: "At the median's current rate of increase, sometime this spring it will have recovered about half of its (the median's) loss since its summer 2007 peak."  


Buyers continue to pounce on attractive new inventory, and multiple offers are once again common. Recently, an attractive, small single family home in a West Marin town received a rumored 33 offers, going into contract at a price that was reportedly almost double the asking price. Extreme? Yes! Representative of the average deal? No. But Marin County real estate is getting competitive again, after several years of bargain basement homes for buyers.

In real estate, as in life, timing is, if not everything, at least an important factor. People who make money in markets are usually those who receive, recognize, and act on information before everyone else climbs on board. We have said for many months now that it was time for buyers to jump into the market to take advantage of low prices and interest rates. Prices have risen, but they are still a bargain compared to 2006/2007. Interest rates are still incredibly low. And there is other good news for buyers---- Even with the price increases, there are still pockets of opportunity in the market. On January 29, only about 37% of homes in the $1million to $1.9 million range were in contract. In the $2million and up range, the figure was only 26-27%. Don't wait too long, because this will change too! Buyers in the hot, under-$1million range can still be successful-----with a good REALTOR and an attitude of optimism and persistence.It is not uncommon for buyers to make 4 or more offers before getting the home they want,but it can be done----hang in there and prepare to be aggressive with offers when the situation calls for it!

Sellers are now in a pocket of opportunity similar to that occupied by buyers a year or two ago. What a great time to  take advantage of the current shortage of housing inventory! An experienced local REALTOR can be an invaluable resource in assessing your home's current value and formulating and implementing a market strategy designed to maximize its value. Don't put off calling your local REALTOR to discuss getting your home on the market in time for the spring sales season. Beat the crowds. Opportunities don't last forever!

More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,

Fred


visit me at http://www.fredanlyan.com

Marin County Real Estate. The Anlyan Report 12.16.12

Sellers. Are You Missing The Big Wave?


This month's blog is for sellers, potential sellers, and would-be sellers who are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to improve.
I just spent the last 2 and a half hours looking up, writing down, and digesting the November real estate statistics for Marin County. It seems to me like a great time to sell, so I can't understand where all the sellers are! Let me share with you some of the numbers I found:
Number of homes sold in November:             2012                 2011                   2010
Single  Family                                             185                   164                     147
Condo                                                          56                    62                       46

Inventory of homes for sale 11.30:               
Single Family                                              421                   846                     1072
Condo                                                          96                  263                       332   

Months' Supply of Inventory:
Single Family                                               2.3                    5.2                         7.3
Condo                                                         1.7                    4.2                        7.2 

Ratio of Sales Price to List Price:
Single Family                                              99%                   96.5%                     95.2%
Condo                                                      101.3%                95.7%                      96.7%

New Listings in November:
Single Family                                               118                     150                        157
Condo                                                         33                        54                          55 

The Greenbrae housing market is sizzling right now, with only 12 current listings, and 9 of them in contract--- a red-hot  75%. Novato is not far behind, with 126 of 174 current listings in contract--- 72.4%! Larkspur (9 of 16, or 56.25%), San Rafael (95 of 170, or 55.88%), Fairfax (11 of only 20, or 55%), and Corte Madera (only 6 listings and 3 are in contract!---50%). Even Belvedere, with the lowest percentage in contract of all the cities and towns surveyed, has 6 of 20 listings in contract, or 30%. Buyers are scrambling to find properties that will work for them. Multiple offers  are happening every day. If you have been waiting to sell your home, this may be the right time! Call your experienced local REALTOR and make an appointment to go over recent comparable sales in your neighborhood. You may be pleasantly surprised!

Marin County Real Estate 9.17.2012, Listing Drought Continues. The Anlyan Report

 Hello Everyone,

The theory of yin and yang tells us that eventually everything changes into its opposite, and the Marin County real estate market is in the process of doing just that! The traditional late summer/early fall market rally has hit. Significantly more homes are being sold than there are new listings to replace them and our months' supply of inventory (MSI) continues its southward journey. Frustrated buyers compete for a shrinking inventory of desirable properties while many potential sellers seem unaware of the dramatic market turnaround of the last few months. For those who have been waiting, now may be the best time in the past few years to list your home for sale. Contact a local REALTOR who is knowledgeable about your neighborhood to get an opinion on the value of your home.
Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) for sale in the County was 544 at the end of August. This compared to 1003 in 2011, and 1242 in 2010. The current inventory represents a 2.3 MSI vs. 5.7 months in 2011 and 9.0 months in 2010. The numbers for condominiums are similar: Inventory on August 31 was 107 Condo units, or a 1.6 month supply. This compares to a 6.2 month supply, or 359 units, in August of 2011 and 379 units in August, 2010, representing a 10 month supply based on market conditions at that time.  
New Listings are down, with only 189 new SFR listings and 58 new condo listings in August. In August of 2011, there were 239 SFR and73 condo listings, and during the same period in 2010, the numbers were 276 for SFR and 82 for condo's.
The number of homes sold for the month of August is up, with 236 SFR's sold during the period this year, compared to 175 in 2011 and 138 in 2010. For condo's, the numbers were: August, 2012- 65; August 2011-58; and August 2010-38. This represents an increase in the number of homes sold in August of 2012 over August of 2011 of about 29%!
Average sales price has not shown dramatic gains, but it is important to remember that it is a reflection not just of market value, but also of market mix. What this means is that different homes are selling this year than last year so we can't directly compare the prices. What we can look at, however, is the ratio of sales price to list price, which is now over 100% in both the SFR and Condo markets. This reflects an excess of demand over current supply, resulting in multiple-offer situations and sales prices in excess of listing prices. (Potential Sellers---see paragraph 1!) 
A September 14 article from, DataQuick, a La Jolla, CA-based real estate information service stated:
"-The Bay Area posted its strongest home sales for the month of August in six years, the result of low mortgage interest rates, an improving economy and increasing demand in mid- to move-up market segments." The article went on to quote DataQuick's president, John Walsh: "Most economists agree that the housing market is off bottom. But there's a big gap between the market being ‘off bottom' and being normal, which it's not. The single biggest bottleneck is still the dysfunctional mortgage lending market. It'll be interesting to see how yesterday's announcement that the Fed is going to buy mortgage-backed securities plays out".
With continuing bargain interest rates, and low housing inventory, "interesting" is probably an understatement. More later. Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 8.17.12

The Marin County real estate market bustles with frenzied activity as buyers scramble for a limited supply of available homes. What's going on here?
Many potential sellers still seem to be under the impression that it is not a good time to place their homes on the market, and are postponing their plans to relocate, downsize, or move up. It is true that prices are not what they were in 2006---but they are a far cry from the lows of 2009! Seller reluctance has resulted in the following statistics (believed accurate, but not guaranteed) as of July 31.
There were 223 single family residences (SFR) and 53 condominiums (Condo's)  sold in July in Marin County. In 2011, it was 172, and 49, and in 2010, it was 166 and 41. Inventory of available homes in July was 563 SFR's and 105 Condo's. The previous year,the numbers were 1034 and 386, and in July of 2010, there were 1290 SFR's and 381 Condo's available for purchase. A client recently made an offer on a home that was newly-listed, went significantly over asking price, was one of 11 offers, and was not in the top half. So, Sellers may want to re-evaluate the quality of this market as it relates to their goals. Admittedly, prices are not what they were a few years ago, but the market is active, interest rates are at historical lows, and well-marketed, well-priced properties are selling quickly, and often for over asking price. The ratio of sale price to list price in Marin at the end of July was .989% for SFR's and 1.005% (meaning they actually went over asking price, on average) for Condo's. New listings continue to lag, with only 223 SFR's and 53 Condo's listed during the month of July, they barely kept up with the number of units sold. Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) in the County continues to drop, with a 2.5 MSI of SFR's and a 2.0 MSI of Condo's as of July 31. This compares to 6.0 and 7.9 in July of 2011, and 6.0 and 9.3 in July of 2010!
San Diego, California-based DataQuick, a real estate news service, in an article dated August 15, and captioned "Bay Area Home Sales and Prices Continue Upward Trend". Noted that home sales in the Bay Area rose on a year-over-year basis in July for the 13th continuous month. The article stated that the Bay Area market is "re-balancing slowly" from "low-end bargain chasing" to "increasing activity in the mid and move-up markets". The article went on to note that absentee buyers (mostly investors) purchased 22.6% of Bay Area homes in July, and that all-cash buyers accounted for 27.3% of Bay Area sales during the month, up 26% from a year ago. The article also mentioned that jumbo loans (over $417K) represented 38.5% of July's "purchase lending", the highest since December of 2007, when it was 38.6%.
The increase in jumbo loan availability and use is fueling the demand for mid-range and higher homes. Loan guidelines have eased, and mortgage money is available for qualified buyers. Strict appraisal standards are holding prices to more rational levels compared to the go-go days of a few years ago, but many homes still garner multiple offers and go significantly over asking price.
Buyers need not be discouraged. Following the advice of a good, persistent REALTOR, it is still entirely possible to find the home of your dreams. But sales happen fast, especially on attractive listings, so the home that comes on the market on Wednesday or Thursday may already be in contract before the open home on Sunday. It is a better idea to go see it now! Ask your agent about pre-emptive offers. And don't be afraid to put your best foot forward!

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 5.20.12

Hello Everyone,
The Marin County Real Estate Market is Hot, Hot, Hot! Attractive new listings are flying off the shelf, often in their first week on the market, and, not infrequently, with multiple offers --sometimes going substantially over asking price. Sellers----can you count on this? Not necessarily. But if your listing is well prepared, priced, presented, and marketed, don't be surprised if it does happen.
What is going on here?
The current supply of housing inventory for sale is extremely low--- only 3.1 months for Single Family Residences (SFR) and 2.9 months for Condo's. In both cases, this is more than 50% below the available inventory in April of 2011. Year-to-date numbers of homes sold are up as well, in spite of low inventory---running nearly 16% ahead of April '11 for SFR's and more than 19% for condo's.
Of 1222 SFR and Condo properties listed for sale on the MLS on May 20, 564 were in contract, or 46%.In Novato, the number is even higher, with 165 of 266, or 62%. But in Belvedere, only 8 of 25 listed properties, 32%, were in contract on May 20.
What this tells us is not necessarily that buyers prefer Novato over Belvedere. Looking County-wide at SFR's and condo's under $1million, we find 58% in contract, while only 15.8% of over-$3million listings were in contract.
There is a message here for Sellers. A large portion of the market has turned.For would-be sellers, this may be the best opportunity in several years, with ultra-low interest rates and frustrated buyers out in droves snapping up everything in sight, especially in the "lower" end of the market. DataQuick, the La Jolla, California-based real estate news service, said, in an article dated May 17 "Bay Area home sales increased last month to their highest level for an April since 2006---".
 Buyers: If you are looking for property in one of the most popular price ranges and locations, keep working on it---success is possible and may be just around the corner! Remember, your REALTOR is a great resource. If, however, you are looking for a $2 or $3million property, you may just still have a window of opportunity. Don't wait too long though!
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 4.16.12

Hello Everyone,

As of April 10, the number of Single Family Residences (SFR) listed for sale on the Marin MLS actually decreased from 868 in our March 27 report, to 854. Number of homes in contract increased from 402 to 419. The net effect of this was that percentage in contract increased again, to 49.06%--- a Strong Sellers' Market by our current criteria. Homes under $1million really through the roof (clever, yes?), with listings down to 511 from 536 on March 27, and number of homes in contract increasing during the period, from 315 to 326. Doing the math on this tells us that an incredible 63.8% of MLS-listed SFR's were in contract on April 10. We are calling this a Very Strong Sellers' Market. Sellers take note. If you are thinking of selling your home in this price range, this could be the best opportunity in years! SFR's in upper price ranges somewhat more reasonable, but the clock is ticking. $1million-$2million range at 34.68% in contract, a balanced market. $2million-$3million at 29.58% in contract, still just barely in Buyers' Market territory, and headed north. Homes in the $3million and up category nearly doubled their percentage in contract during the period, from 8.96% to 17.65% in contract, vaulting out of Very Strong Buyers' into Strong Buyers' territory. Still opportunities here for the smart money, but perhaps not for long----time will tell.

 

As of April 10, YTD sales of SFR's in the County at 489 units, compared to 418 a year ago, or up 16.9%. Average days on market (DOM) down from 141 to 133. Average sales price up slightly, to $953,153 from the year-ago figure of $936,295.

 

Market temperature  definitely rising!

 

Condominium  inventory increased by one unit, to 250, and units in contract decreased by one unit, to 142. Percentage in contract at 56.8%-- still in Very Strong Sellers' market territory, even with a 6/10 of a point drop. 140 of 238 listed condo's under $1million in contract, or 58.82%- also remaining in Very Strong Sellers' Market territory, with a 6/10 point drop. As of April 10, 146 condo units had sold, YTD, compared to 140 at the same time in 2011, or up 4.3%. This is actually a slight drop, as it iwas up 8.9% at our last report. Average DOM for sold condo units at 157, compared to 177 last year at the same time. Average sold price down somewhat, from $393,675 in April of 2011, to $342,392 on April 10. A significant percentage of this drop (probably about 50%) most likely due to changes in market mix rather than price depreciation.

 

Hotsheet statistics show 157 properties went contingent between March 28 and April 10, and 117 units sold, while only 118 new listings came on the market.  Reality from ground-level is that buyers continue to compete for good new inventory, resulting in a substantial number of multiple offers over asking price. Rule of thumb for buyers is--if you see a property you like, make an offer---. Chances are it may not be available next week.

 

More next time. Until then---

 

Best wishes to all,

 

Fred

p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com

 

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 4.3.12

​Hello Everyone,

City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up in 9 of the 13 cities and towns we follow, and down in only 4. Two of the decreases (Mill Valley and Larkspur) were so small that we could call those markets stable. Fairfax's decrease was due to a significant influx in new listings, and the Greenbrae figures were influenced by a swing of only 3 listings. So really, the idea of decreasing percentage in contract does not seem to be a significant factor at this time. Always popular, Corte Madera is in the lead again this time, with 26 of 38 listed properties in contract, or 68.4%. Novato and San Rafael not far behind, with 59.7% and 56.45% respectively. All three of these markets qualify as Very Strong Sellers' markets under our guidelines.

Single Family Residences (SFR)

Inventory* at 454 homes as of March 31. Compares to 954 last March 31, 1082 in 2010, and 1250 in 2009. Sellers with outdated ideas about the favorability of the market may want to take a quick look at current reality and take advantage of the unusual conditions with buyers out in droves, snapping up good inventory quickly. 171 SFR's sold in March, same as last year, and about 30 more units than the previous two years (2010 and 2009). Average sales price was down just a bit from the $1,040,000 in March of 2011, at $908K, but remember, at least half of this is attributable to market mix rather than price declines. What we are actually seeing is a lot of multiple-offer activity. Still quite a few all-cash and quick-close offers being presented, frustrating well-qualified would-be buyers who need loans. 46.31% of all MLS-listed SFR's were in contract as of March 27-- about the same percentage as at last report. Homes under $1million also held steady at 58.77% in contract, a high figure by historical standards. This indicates a Very Strong Sellers' Market by our guidelines. $1million to $1.99 million segment also holding steady at just under 32%, and we are calling it a balanced market. $2-$2.99million segment up 4 points to 27.94%, still a buyers' market, but not by much and probably not for long. Homes in the over-$3million range still waiting for the fuse to be lit and settling back a bit at 8.96% in contract, a very strong buyers' market. Buyers of high-end homes take note--- there is still an opportunity here! As of 3/27, 380 SFR's had sold, YTD compared to 350 at the same time in 2011, an 8.6% increase. At last report, this figure was up 5.7%, so continuing to increase.

Condominiums

Condo Inventory* very low, at only 106 units on 3/31-- compares to 293 in 2011 at the same time, 178 in 2010, and 176 in 2009 51 condominium units sold in March vs. 43 at the same time last year, 39 in 2010, and 42 in 2009. Average sales price down to $380,000, compared to $446K at the same time last year, $411k in 2010, and $427k in 2009. (see sales-price notes above under single family residences) 57.43% of all MLS-listed Condo's, were in contract as of March 27-- up about a point and a half from our last report. Condo's under $1million (all but 10) also increased their percentage in contract slightly to 59.41% from 57.785 last time. This qualifies as a very strong sellers' market. Those shopping for over-$1million condo's may still be in luck, as only 1 unit out of the 10 listed properties was in contract on March 27. As of 3/27, 122 condominium units had sold, YTD, compared to 112 at the same time in 2011, an 8.9% increase. Compares to 1% at last report, so a strong increase for the two-week period.

Marin County real estate market active and buyer activity high. Buyers continue to experience frustration due to lack of quality inventory. This creates a significant opportunity for sellers to enter the market. It appears that the market either has, or is just about to "turn the corner", depending on one's particular point of view. Mortgage rates still good and mortgage money now much more available than in the recent past. How the year turns out will depend on whether sellers finally decide it is time to place their homes back on the market. We will find out!

Until the next time, best wishes to all,


Fred





* Inventory figures differ between MLS and CB MarketQuest because of the way each counts listings that are in contract

​

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 3.18.12

Hello Everyone,

According to a March 15 report by San Diego, California-based DataQuick, a real estate information service, Marin County bucked  the Bay Area sales trend in February. Although sales unit volume was generally up in the nine county area (average 14.2%, Marin County 15.3%), prices were down approximately 3.6%, according to the report. The report went on to say that February was the 17th consecutive month of median sales price decreases for the 9-County region. Marin County, however, showed a median price increase of 7.6% compared to February of 2011. Only San Francisco joined Marin with an increase (5.9%).  All of the other seven counties experienced declining median prices compared to year-ago figures.  

Read the full article at:
 http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120315.aspx

According to our MLS figures, inventory continues to increase very very slowly, while percentage in contract shows consistent advances in almost every price segment.

Single Family Residences (SFR)

As of March 13, there were 830 SFR's on the MLS in the County, with 46.5% of them in contract. This compares to 42.88% at last report, two weeks ago. According to our guidelines, this segment now qualifies as a strong sellers'market. But most sellers appear not to be aware of this market shift, or just plain don't believe it. Lots of frustrated buyers out there just waiting to pounce on good-quality new inventory---- resulting in substantial numbers of multiple-offer situations. Not only that, but lots of all-cash deals where there is not a bank appraiser setting limits on purchase prices. The under-$1million price segment red hot at 58.3% in contract (302 of 518). We are calling this a very strong sellers' market. $1million to $1.99 million segment at 32.6% in contract, crossing the line from "buyers'" to "balanced" market during the last two weeks. $2million to $2.99 million segment declined very slightly, from 24.49% to 23.73% in contract-- not enough to even call a decline. Let's call it "holding steady" and recognize it as a possibly endangered species of current Marin housing bargains. Still a buyers' market, but may not stay that way for long. $3million and up segment still a bargaining opportunity in many cases, but, at 12.7% in contract, has advanced from only 9.09% at last report--- out of "very strong buyers" territory and now qualifying as "strong buyers". Buyers please take note! Year to date (YTD) SFR unit sales at 296 compared to 280 at the same time last year. This represents an increase of 5.7%. At our last report, the increase was 10.3%. This may be just a small blip in sales activity rather than a trend. At this time of year, when the numbers are still small, it does not take much to affect them one way or another.  YTD average list and sales prices also show increases. 2011 YTD average SFR list price as of March 13 was $939,697 and the average sales price was $885,096. The current figures (still March 13) are $1,042,142 and $985,873. And average days on market (DOM) declined slightly from 145 to 140. Lots of positive signs!   

Condominiums

YTD unit sales of condo's at 99, compared to the year-ago figure of 98. We have been waiting for this number to go "positive". It was -9.5% at last report, so the current figure of +1% is a very positive sign! There were 236 condominium units on the market in Marin County as of March 13. 132 of them, or 55.93% were in contract, a number that is roughly the same as our last report, but representing a strong sellers' market. In the under- $1million condo market (all but about 10 units), 57.78% of listed units are in contract, making it a very strong sellers' market. Prices of condo units not as encouraging as SFR's, with the YTD average list price at $335,000 on March 13, and the average sales price at $324,321. Compares to the year-ago figures of $370,482 and $360,331. Average DOM have come down though, from last year's (March 13) figure of 167 to the current 156. Looks to be headed in the right direction.

Marin County real estate market appears to be headed in a positive direction as we prepare to enter the second calendar quarter, and the traditionally hot spring sales period.

We do need some more sellers to get on board and list their homes so that we will have something to sell.

More next time.

Until then, best wishes to all,

Fred 

p.s. for charts and graphs please visit my website:

http://www.fredanlyan.com

  

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 3.4.2012

Hello Everyone,

City-by-City report, out this week, shows percentage in contract up, since our report last month, in 10 of the 13 cities and towns we follow. Fairfax leads the pack, with an amazing 68.75% (*) (11 of 16) of MLS-listed homes in contract as of March 1. Novato is next, at 57.55%, with San Rafael and Greenbrae nearly tied at 55+-% each. Kentfield with the lowest numbers this month, showing only 1 of 19 listed homes in contract, a little over 5%. Belvedere next, with 2 of 21 listed homes (9%) in contract.

Single Family Residences (SFR)

Coldwell Banker Market Action Report(+) shows available inventory of SFR's on February 29 at 436 units, less than half of the February inventory for the past two years. It was 858 in 2011, and 881 in 2010. February new listings at only 205 units, vs 270 in February of 2011, and 247 in 2010. Price per square foot at $424, up from $381 in 2011 but slightly less than 2010's $435. Days on Market (DOM) at 140--- an improvement from 155 last February but more than 133 days in February of 2010. 225 SFR units sold (YTD, MLS) as of 28 Feb, up about 10.3% from 2011's YTD sales of 204 units on the same date. This actually reflects a slight deceleration from our last report, when the numbers were up 27%------- a trend? or just normal fluctuation---? We will have to wait and see.

Condominiums

Condo Market Action Report (+) shows inventory at 118 units on February 29, compared to 318 last February, and 310 in 2010. Days on Market at 157, up from last year's 149, and 2010's 133. Price per square foot has been dropping and currently at $254, compared to $275 a year ago, and $331 two years back. Only 58 new condo listings came on the market in February, compared to 87 in February of 2011, and 81 in 2010. YTD sales of condo's in the County at 76 on 28 February (MLS), vs. 84 last year at the same time, a reduction of 9.5%---but, actually representing a gain since last report, when this number was down 17.5%.

Unit sales of SFR's up, but losing momentum in February, while condo unit sales were down, but gaining momentum. Not clear if this is a developing trend, but definitely worth watching. Condo buyers and sellers may want to take note.

Local REALTORS starting to speak more and more confidently about prospects for the Marin housing market. Still lots of reports of multiple offers on attractive new listings, with frustrated buyers pouncing, often with all-cash and short closes. Makes it more challenging for even well-qualified buyers who need loans-- especially if they are FHA or VA loans, although many of these buyers eventually achieve success if they are realistic and persistent. Sometimes takes several offers before getting into contract.

A couple of articles received via email this week, courtesy of Fred Nelson at the CB Greenbrae Castle, report growing confidence in the national real estate market. The International Business Times article quotes Warren Buffet as saying that single family homes are now cheap and attractive investments. Read the article at:

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/306749/20120229/real-estate-forecast-2012-warren-buffett.htm

The second article, from Bloomberg News, titled: "U.S. Housing Lays Foundation for Recovery as Buyers Coaxed Back" also paints an optimistic picture of the national real estate market. Read the full text at:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-02/housing-in-u-s-lays-foundation-for-recovery-as-economy-coaxes-buyers-back.html

There seems to be more optimism among agents, analysts, and investors, than there has been in quite some time. The Bloomberg article also notes that banks are beginning, gradually, to come back on line with mortgage lending. It appears that 2012 may be a pivotal year for real estate, and the beginning of recovery.


More next time. Until then,

Best wishes to all,

Fred

• * MLS statistics

• + CB MarketQuest statistics

• MLS and MarketQuest differ in the way they count listings that are in contract, so they are not directly comparable, but are consistent with other numbers in their own database.


p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com/

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 2.16.12

Hello Everyone,

A February 16 article from DataQuick, the San Diego, CA-based real estate information service states: "The median price for a (Bay Area) home fell year-over-year for the 16th consecutive month, as "distressed" sales rose to the highest level since early last year---". Statistics in the article showMarin County bucked this trend, with a 4.6% increase in prices over last January's results, and sales unit volume up 9.8%. Our own  MLS year-to-date (YTD) statistics show these figures may be a bit deceiving. YTD single family 14, while unit sales increased about 27%, from 132 to 168. Condominium sales, on the other hand, are down from 2011's YTD figure of 63 units, to only 52 as of 2/14, off about 17%. This number actually represents a slight improvement from our last report , when condo unit sales were off 20%. Condo year-over-year prices also down, with average sold price at $320,237 vs. 2011's average YTD sales price of $349,992. Regarding the current statistics, article quotes DataQuick President, John Walsh as saying "This is also the time of year we caution people not to try to read too much into the statistics. The winter numbers are based on a smaller pool of buyers and they haven't proved very predictive." That may be, but the reality is that right now, Marin County SFR prices and sales are up, and condo sales and prices are down--- an important distinction and essential information for buyers and sellers. Current Marin County housing inventory continues to be extremely low. Percentage in contract on under-$1million SFR's and condo's is nearing 50%. Good new listings going into contract quickly, often in their 1st week on the market and, not infrequently, for over asking price. Lots of all-cash deals making it tougher for buyers who need loans, especially FHA or VA buyers, to land the properties they want. Advice of an experienced local REALTOR who knows your neighborhood is invaluable in this market.

Days on Market (DOM) for SFR's down from last February's 142 days to 133, while condo's about the same as last year at this time at 153 days vs. last year's 154. Sellers take note: Stale, overpriced properties that sit on the market while fresh, new, well-price listings zoom out the door skew these numbers to the high side.

Activity in local real estate offices is brisk and agents more optimistic than in quite some time, many thinking that 2012 will be the year the market starts to emerge from its slump.

Time will tell!

More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,

Fred

full text of DataQuick article available at http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120216.aspx

p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please visit my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 2.5.12

Hello Everyone,


City-by-City Report, out this week, shows percentage in contract was up in 9 of the 13 towns and cities we follow. Novato in the lead, showing 53.42% of MLS-listed homes and condo's in contract as of February 1---a strong sellers' market. Fairfax, Larkspur, and San Anselmo in a very tight race for 2nd place, all with over 46% in contract, and San Rafael not far behind, at 44.4%. Belvedere percentage in contract still in the basement, even though almost double that in our last report at 9.09%.

CB Market Action report shows continued dramatically low housing inventory in the County. (remember, these figures are lower than MLS figures becuase they do not include listings that are in contract). Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) at 431 as of Jan 31. Last year at the same time, there were 781 available homes, and in Jan of 2010, the number was 823. For Condo's, Jan 31 inventory was 123, compared to 267 last year, and 155 in Jan of 2010. Low inventory continues to frustrate buyers, who pounce upon good new inventory, making it disappear quickly, often the first week on the market. Lots of stories from real estate colleagues about listings with multiple offers selling over asking price and all-cash offers with quick closes. One gated, 1950's, Southern Marin hilltop property in original condition recently sold in the mid-$2million dollar range, all-cash, with a short close, even before it hit the MLS.

Percentage in contract for SFR's in the $1-2 million range has been moving up in recent weeks, currently a "Balanced" market at 31.17% in contract, while homes priced at $2-3 million at 20.45%---- was as low as 11% at the beginning of January. Market for homes above $3million, still very tepid, at only 9% in contract. Sales of SFR's YTD, at 117 on Jan 31, up from 91 units at the same time last year, a 28% increase. Condo's moving in the opposite direction. After ripping up the market in 2011, condo unit sales started off the year with January sales down about 20% from last year, at 35 units compared to Jan, 2011's 44 units. Average sold prices on both SFR's and condo's up, but too soon to indicate a trend due to low numbers and may just be due to specific units sold being a different "market mix". We will know more as the selling season unfolds.

A lot of talk about the upcoming Facebook Initial Public Offering of stock, and the fact that it will create hundreds of "instant millionaires". Much of this money expected to find its way into the SouthBay real estate market, making an already tight market even more competitive and expensive. Question is how much, if any, spillover will find its way to the Marin real estate market. There certainly are enough high-priced bargains from which to choose! Would be interesting! Time will tell.

More next time.

Until then, best wishes to all,

Fred

p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 1.22.2012

Hello Everyone,


Attached to this week's report is the Annual Marin Sales Comparison, with sales by town/city from 1965 through 2011. Average sales price decline across the County was 6.49%, however , Larkspur, San Anselmo, and Kentfield actually bucked the trend, with price increases of 1.9%, 3.16%, and 11.6%. Towns where sales prices declined ranged from a high -18.59% in Belvedere to a low of -3.05% in Ross. A separate category called "Miscellaneous Marin" showed an average decline of 19.8%.

Attached percentage-in-contract reports show inventory and percentage in contract at most price points slowly beginning to build for both Single Family Residences and Condo's--- normal for this time of year, but inventory still at very low levels.


A January 18 article from DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service summed up the Bay Area real estate market for 2011, saying, in part, "The Bay Area’s housing market rounded out 2011 much the way it started it: with constricted and atypical sales activity, lots of bottom feeding, and a largely dormant mid- to move-up market. Sales were up slightly last month, while prices dropped". The article went on to quote DQ's President, John Walsh who noted that most people had put "discretionary buying and selling on hold, except at the very top of the market". Mr. Walsh was also quoted as saying that the "spectacular gains in affordability, based on the combination of lower prices and ultra-low interest rates, (were) largely theoretical for many people because it was so hard to get a mortgage". According to the article, distressed sales (REO's and short sales) in the Bay Area represented over 49%

of the Bay Area resale market in December, an increase over November, as well as the previous December. Read the full text of the article at:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx


Many local REALTORS as well as other writers and analysts seem to feel that 2012 will be a bit more upbeat than 2011, but caution that there will still be quite a bit of foreclosure and short sale activity to hold prices in check. Lending standards will continue to be tight, but for those who qualify, interest rates are expected to remain low. Price increases, if any are expected to remain low. A great time to buy for those who can qualify. Because of continued low inventory of homes for sale, also a great time for sellers to check back in if they have a realistic attitude about prices and marketing. Key factors are flexibility and a knowledgable local REALTOR who can provide reliable information about the state of the market in your specific neighborhood. Buyers are snapping up attractive, well-located, well-priced homes--- often in the first week they are listed.

More next time.


Until then, best wishes to all,



Fred

p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website, http://www.fredanlyan.com/

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 1.8.12

Hello Everyone,




Welcome to a brand new year! May it be the best one yet, but only the first of many great ones to come!

Attached Market Action Reports show Marin County housing inventory closed out 2011 at the lowest levels in the entire 36 month period covered, creating continued competition among buyers for desirable new listings. Single Family Residences (SFR) at 412 units and a 3.1 month supply of inventory (MSI) at the end of December. This compares to 760 units and 5 month MSI last December, and 810 units and 4.7 month MSI in Dec 2009. The Condo Market Action Report reveals a similar story, closing out 2011 with only 138 units and a 2.2 month MSI, compared to 287 units and an MSI of 6.7 in 2010, and 259 units with 4.8 MSI in Dec 2009. New listings also lowest in 36 months, with SFR's at 70 and condo's at only 34. (Market Action Report numbers for inventory do not include current listings that are in contract, so differ from MLS statistics, where they are included).



Sales of SFR's closed out the year at 1912 units, with an average price of $991,907, compared to the year-ago figure of 1844 units and sale price of $1,034,191. Unit sales up 3.6%, and average sales price down 4.7%. Condo sales at 583 units vs. 479 in 2010, up 21.7% with average sales price at $370,298 vs. $400,313 in 2010, down 7.7%. Remember, most analysts attribute about half of average price decline to loss of value, with the other half attributable to market mix.

Local real estate market normally starts to perk up in February and March. With the national and local economies appearing to be on a positive trend , we are looking for continuing improvement. Price increases expected to be limited by continuing supply of distressed properties --- short sales and REO's, as well as cautious buyers, lenders, and appraisers.



More next time.



Until then, best wishes to all,



Fred

p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website
http://www.fredanlyan.com/

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 12.18.11

Hello Everyone,


We are still in a very active real estate market, even though we have entered the traditionally slower holiday season. A snapshot of our current market might read something like this: "Inventory low; percentage in contract, relatively high; prices down from the same time last year, but up slightly from October. Frustrated buyers snapping up good new listings as soon as they come on the market."

A December 14 report from DataQuick, the San Diego-based real estate news service confirms the above characterization of the market, and adds that distressed properties continued to make up about 47% of all home sales in the Bay Area in November, a number it says is up slightly from 45.2% in October, and 46.7% a year ago. According to the article, investors purchased over 22% of Bay Area real estate in November, and over 27% of all sales appeared to have been for cash. For some time, we have been noting this trend among investors and we think it is worth repeating. Read the full text of the article at:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay111214.aspx

Single Family Residences (SFR)

For the period ending December 13, there were 795 single family homes listed on the Marin MLS. 303 of them, or 38.11% were in contract. In the under-$1million range, it was 48.25%;

$1million to $2million, 26.32%; $2million to $3million, 14%; and $3million-up at 9.52%. Of these, only the $2-3million range constituted a drop---- it was 17.86% at last report. But with only 50 listings in the segment, 2 or 3 homes can make this kind of difference so probably not statistically significant. What is significant is that homes in the over-$2million range still represent an incredible value for those who want and can afford them. YTD SFR's sold as of 12.13.11 at 1816 vs. 1744 the same time last year, an increase of 4.1%. Days on Market (DOM) at 114 vs. 111 last year, and average sold price at $996,650 compared to $1,031,860 at the same time in 2010.

Condo's

On December 13, there were 266 condominiums listed on MLS in Marin County, and 123 of them, or 46.24% were in contract. Even though that represents a 3 point drop from last report, it is an impressively high number. In the under-$1million segment (all but 9 units), the percentage in contract was 47.47%. For condo's over 1 million, only 1 of 9 listed units was in contract, or 11%. YTD condo sales as of 12.13 were 547, compared to the year-ago figure of 454, representing an increase of 20%. DOM were up from 138 last year at this time, to 145, and average sold price was $374, 475, down from the comparable 2010 figure of $396,894. Some buyers have been getting very good deals on condo's that they would not have been able to afford just a few years ago. They are taking advantage of this window of opportunity to get a foothold in the Marin County real estate market. Some of these units are in attractive developments and require only cosmetic repairs. Rewards in this market are going to those who recognize value and are willing to act.

More next time. Until then, wishing you all the best for the Holidays and the New Year ahead,


Fred

p.s. For access to spreadsheets please see my website http://www.fredanlyan.com/








The next report will be in January

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 12.4.11

Hello Everyone,


Something is afoot! Or is it? Hard to tell anymore. Here's the evidence. You can decide for yourselves!

Tons of open escrows. Tons of closed escrows too. Low inventory of homes for sale. Much lower than last November or November of 2009.


City-by-City Report, out this week shows percentage in contract for 8 of 13 towns and cities covered increased, 2 remained virtually unchanged, and 3 decreased. Novato on top again, extending its lead, with 51.98% of listed units in contract on December 1. San Anselmo close behind at 50%, and Greenbrae third at 45%. Belvedere holding down the floor, with only 1 of 27 listed homes in contract, or 3.7%. Buyers with cash and a desire to live in Belvedere might do well to grab a local REALTOR and go shopping.


Single Family Residences (SFR)


SFR's overall at 36% in contract, up from 33% at last report. Homes under $1million up again, at 44.7% in contract compared to 42.4% last time. Homes in the $1million-$2million range also showed gains, going from 22% to 26.3% in contract over the two week period. $2million-$3million dollar range still struggling, and down over 2 points at 17.8% from last report's 20%. Still an improvement from several weeks ago when it was in the 12-16% range. Homes in the $3million and up range at 8.22% in contract, up modestly from 5.06% at last report. Units sold, YTD, at 1752, up 5.1% from this time last year (1667), but average SFR sold price at $997,404 compared to $1,039,445 a year ago. About half of that estimated to be price attrition, with the other half attributable to market mix. Average Days on Market for sold listings at 114, only slightly more than the year-ago figure of 111. Market Action Report, also out this week shows SFR Months Supply of Inventory in the County at 3.5 months- a very low number that compares to a bit over 6 months in each of the last two years. Inventory of homes for sale at 521 on 11.30.11 (vs. over 900 in November of 2010 per CB MarketQuest) also the lowest in over 24 months covered by the charts (inventory numbers on attached reports don't always directly compare to each other due to different methods of classifying homes in varying stages of the sales process).


Condominiums


Condo's overall at 49.66% in contract as of November 29, with condo's priced at under $1million hitting 50.53%. Year-to-date, 509 Condo units had sold as of Nov 29, compared to 437 a year ago, representing a 16.5% increase. Average sold price of $375,462 compares to the 2010 YTD figure of $400,231, while average DOM for sold listings was at 146 on Nov 29, compared to 136 at the same time last year. MSI for condo's even lower than for SFR's, at a 3.1 months. Compares to 7.1 last November, and 6.1 in Nov of 2009. (Please see notes above, under Single Family Residences, as they also apply to condo statistics)


Global economic turmoil continues to keep buyers on edge. Dramatic stock market fluctuations follow daily news of Euro crisis. One day's euphoria and market run-up quickly displaced by dysphoric programmed selling a day or so later. Fortunately the effect on our real estate market is largely peripheral. Regular folks are buying homes to live in and are getting great deals. A lot of people seem to be tired of living in the shadow of what might happen to the economy and are getting on with their lives. Quality homes placed on the market at reasonable prices are selling quickly and not infrequently with multiple offers. Want to know what your home is worth? Call a local REALTOR who knows your market.


More next time.


Until then, best Holiday wishes to all,


Fred

p.s. for access to spreadsheets, please see my website  http://www.fredanlyan.com/