The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 11.24.13

This month's report begins with a couple of timely and relevant Holiday real estate stories. The author promises that there are actual statistics contained in this report, and those who are eager to find them sooner, rather than later, may, of course, scroll down!

People often ask me about the state of our local real estate market. This year, I've been telling them about the tremendous opportunities for sellers due to the low inventory of homes for sale, escalating prices, and frequent multiple-offer situations. Last week, on my way to a class, I picked up my friend Anne in the East Bay, and it wasn't too long before the conversation turned towards real estate. I told her things were slowing down a bit, with lots of buyers and sellers getting ready to take a few weeks off for the Holidays. "No!" she said  "Tell them this is the best time!" "When I was shopping for my condo, I even went out on New Year's Day." She gave me permission to quote her, so there you have it--- from a successful home buyer straight to you! This is a great opportunity to make an end-run around crowds of competing buyers to get the home you want. As baseball hall-of-famer Willie Keeler used to say "Hit ‘em where they ain't".

This week, I walked in to the monthly Marin County Buy/Sell lunchtime networking meeting. Led by a well-known local broker, the meeting opens with a recap of the monthly and year-to-date statistics for the Marin real estate market. This information told us that the inventory of homes for sale is down to just over a two month supply (approximately 4.5 months is considered healthy). On average, recent home sales in Marin have been at about 99% of initial asking price. Because these are averages, this means that a substantial number of homes are selling for significantly over asking price. So the well-known broker asked the assembled agents-"Where are all the sellers?" "The Holidays", replied a chorus of agents. My high school history teacher was fond of saying "A word to the wise is sufficient." With such a lack of housing inventory, sellers have an unusual opportunity to sell at excellent prices, with minimal competition.

According to a November 13 report by DataQuick, a San Diego, CA-based real estate information service, Marin County home sales in October were 306 units, down 8.7% from the same period a year earlier (most likely due to lack of  inventory!), but prices were up, with the median price of those homes at $805,500, vs. $660,000 during the year-earlier period. The report estimates that, Bay Area-wide, 75% of the year-over-year price increases are due to appreciation in value, while the other 25% is attributable to changes in market mix--- meaning more expensive homes and fewer distressed properties are being sold.

Here in Marin, the inventory shortage brings sellers an abundance of opportunities. As of November 24, 2282 single family residences (SFR's) and 613 condominiums had sold, year-to-date. This compared to 2134 SFR's and 567 condo's on the same date last year. And this was in spite of the severe shortage of available homes that caused prices to rise dramatically, particularly in the spring and early summer.

 Of the 13 Marin county communities we follow, we're currently identifying 10 as some type of sellers' market. In these communities, the percentage of MLS-listed homes in contract as of 11.24.13 ranged from a high of 57% (Corte Madera) to a low of 3.3% (Belvedere). Here's the ranking:
Town/City       % in Contract   
Corte Madera      57.14%
Novato                55.10%
San Anselmo       54%
Fairfax                53.57%
San Rafael           51.55%
Greenbrae            46.67%
Mill Valley            45.56%
Kentfield              42.86%
Ross                    33.5%
Sausalito              37.04%
Tiburon                22.02%
Larkspur               15.14% (last month was 46%)
Belvedere             3.33%

Across the County, the lower-priced homes (admittedly a relative term!) sold most briskly.
In the $0-$999K price range, 54% of SFR'S and 51.8% of condo's listed on MLS were in contract.
In the $1M to $1.99M price range, it was 43.8% for SFR's, but condo's came in at only 28.57%--- Buyers' opportunity!
The $2M to $2.99 M price range showed 24% of SFR's in contract--- A Buyers' Market!! There was only one condo in that price range, and it was in contract, so 100%!
There were no condo's in the over-$3M segment, but only 8.49% of the SFR's were in contract, making it a huge opportunity for qualified buyers in the price range. If you're one of those fortunate folks, take a look at the available inventory. Your local REALTOR might be able to help you give yourself the double gift of a new home and a great deal with $ in the bank. If you're a buyer, stay optimistic and stay engaged----definitely don't take the Holidays off, because your competition most likely will, providing you with a significant advantage.

Whatever you do, have a safe and happy Holiday Season!

More next time. Until then, best wishes to all,

Fred

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 10.20.13

According to an October 17 report by DataQuick, a San Diego-based real estate news service, a total of 300 homes sold in Marin County in September, at a median price of $750,000. The figure includes both single family homes and condo's and reflects an increase of 15.4% in price and 11.9% in numbers of units for sale, compared to the same period last year. In August of this year, the comparable figures were 350 units sold at a median price of $760,000. The article notes that in the nine-county Bay Area real estate market, September marked the second month of a month-to-month decline in the median sales price which, it stated, reached a high of $665,000 in June/July of 2007, and a low of $290,000 in March of '09.
Although the median price of Bay Area homes has increased year-over-year, every month for the last 18 months, DataQuick's president, John Walsh, predicts "It's likely we'll see year-over-year price gains trend lower for the forseeable future". This, the article states, is a result of higher mortgage rates, increasing inventory of homes for sale, and decreasing purchases by investors, as well as changes in market mix, or the types of homes being sold. For more details, see the complete article.
Further research into the current statistics for Marin County reveals that, overall, there are approximately 878 active listings on the Marin MLS for Single Family Residences and Condo's. 347 of these, or 41%, are in contract, indicating a slight sellers market for the County as a whole. When we checked the numbers back in July, 386 of 878 listed properties were in contract,  so market activity, though not slowing dramatically, has dropped back just a bit, creating an opportunity for some buyers who may have felt buffeted by the frenzied pace of offers and sales earlier in the year. The numbers, since they are averages, can obscure the fact that, within the County, individual market can vary greatly.
Currently, the most active markets are: Larkspur-- 9 of 16 listed properties in contract, or 56%; Sausalito--- 20 of 36 properties in contract, or 55.5%;Corte Madera, at 53.8%, with 14 of 26 listed properties in contract; Novato---82 of 163 properties in contract for 50.3%; San Rafael, with 89 of 186, or 47.8%; Fairfax 45.16%; San Anselmo, 43.9%. These are hot sellers' markets with lots of buyer competition, but good homes can be found, with persistence and the aid of an experienced local REALTOR.
Currently active markets with slightly less pressure and competition are: ; Greenbrae at 36.36% in contract, and Mill Valley, at 34.78%.
The markets with the lowest percentage in contract and therefore presenting the greatest opportunity for buyers, albeit mostly on the higher end are:  Kentfield, at 29.17% in contract; Ross, 27.27%; Tiburon,23.4%; and, the Queen of them all, Belvedere, with only 9.3% of some admittedly very high-end homes in contract. These communities feature a preponderance of higher-priced homes. But, for the high-end buyer, the opportunities are real. For more details on specific communities, neighborhoods, and individual homes contact an experienced local REALTOR.
More next time!
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
visit my website at http://www.fredanlyan.com
or email fred@marinmodern.com
 

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate. 9.5.13

DataQuick, the La Jolla, CA-based real estate news service noted in an August 15 report that the number of homes sold in the Bay Area in July was the highest since 2005. According to the article, the 9,339 homes sold represented an increase of 18.3% from the previous month and a 13.3% increase over July of 2012. The article quotes Data Quick’s president, John Walsh, characterizing the current market not as a “frenzy”, but as a market that is in the process of “re-balancing” itself and “regaining lost ground”. According to the article, Mr. Walsh noted that  increasing prices would eventually attract more sellers, and the increased supply of homes for sale is expected to moderate future price increases.

Here in Marin County, there were 224 Single Family Residences (SFR) and 68 Condo’s sold in the month of August. This compares to 250 and 76 in July, a decrease of around 10.5%  for both categories. Sales mostly limited by lack of inventory, still following a long southward slide as many potential sellers continue to be reluctant to place their homes on the market and await further price appreciation. Inventory of homes for sale at the end of August was just 430 SFR’s and 74 Condo’s. This compares to August of ’12, when there were 822 SFR’s (66.1% drop) and 218 Condo’s (47.7% drop) available for sale. The supply of homes for sale in the County, characterized as Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) continues to decrease. At the end of August, it was 1.9 months for SFR’s and 1.1 months for Condo’s. This compares to 2.6 months (SFR) and 2.2 months (Condo) in July, and 3.5 months (SFR) and 3.2 months (Condo) in August of 2012. Days on Market (DOM) are also dramatically lower. The current 63 days for SFR’s and 47 for Condo’s represents a decrease of 29% (from 89 days) for SFR’s and 55% (from 105 days) for Condo’s compared to August of 2012.  Prices continue to increase as buyers compete for a limited number of listings. Price per square foot at the end of August averaged $527/sf for SFR’s and $400/sf for Condo’s. Compared to August of 2012, this represents an increase of 19% (from $443/sf) for SFR’s and 25.4% (from $319/sf) for Condo’s. At the end of August, the average SFR was selling for 100.9% of asking price, while Condo’s sold, on average for 104.4% of asking price.  

This is the long way of saying that the current real estate market in Marin is very competitive, with a shortage of homes  available for sale compared both to demand and to historical inventory levels. As a result, many buyers are paying 4 or 5 percent or more over asking price. Even 10% is not unusual. In spite of this, qualified buyers who are persistent are finding and buying homes, often after making several offers. Sellers who have been waiting may find that the current market offers the opportunity they've been seeking. Recommendation for both Buyers and Sellers: Call an experienced local REALTOR---- an invaluable asset this market!

The Anlyan Report 4.3.13. Market Sizzles, Buyers Battle, Sellers Sit and Wait???

Data Quick, a La Jolla, CA-based real estate information service, in a report dated March 14, 2013, noted the following about the Bay Area real estate market:

1. February’s median home prices up 24.6% compared to February of 2012. The Service attributed about half of the gain to price increased, and the rest to “market mix”, meaning that fewer low-priced distressed-property sales were taking place.
2. February foreclosure resales, at 13.6% of the Bay Area market, were down from 26.4% a year ago. Short sales, at 21.4% were also down substantially from the year-ago figure of 27%.
3. Absentee Buyers (mostly investors, according to the article) purchased 28.2% of Bay Area homes in February, paying a median price of $303,000. This compared to the same time last year when they represented 25.6% of the market and paid a median price of $245,000.

A chart accompanying the article noted Marin County February home sales of 201 units--- just 2 fewer than in February of 2012. But the median price rose 21.4%, from $535,500 to $650,000.

The Marin County City by City Report, out this week, shows 5 of the 13 cities and towns we follow to be Very Strong Sellers’ Markets, with 56% or more of listed properties in contract on April 1, 2013. Corte Madera led the pack, with 15 of 19 listed properties in contract, an incredible 78.95%! Novato was a close second, with 71.6%, or 106 of 148 listed homes in contract. Greenbrae came in third, at 66.7% (8 of 12 homes in contract). San Rafael, 4^th (106 of 169 properties in contract) at 62.7%, and San Anselmo rounded out the top 5, with 36 of 62 listed properties in contract, or 58.02%!

Mill Valley (54.88%), Fairfax, (54.55%), and Sausalito (54.29%) all tied for 6^th place. Ross was slightly below at 47.06%, followed by Tiburon (37%), Kentfield (35%), and finally, Belvedere, at 19%. These last four figures probably reflecting the fact that jumbo loans are still more difficult to obtain than standard financing. Well-qualified prospective buyers for these high-end communities would do well to make a move now rather than waiting until the housing recovery pushes these properties further up the ladder and possibly out of reach.

Low Marin County Housing inventory continues to challenge would-be buyers, with only 287 Single Family Residences (SFR) and 60 Condo’s available as of March 31. This compares to 448 SFR’s and 111 Condo’s in February, and 837 SFR’s and 223 Condo’s in March of 2012! Current inventory is down to 1.6 months for SFR’s and 1.1 month for Condo’s. Last year, in March, it was 4.5 months for SFR’s and 3.9 months for Condo’s. At some point, it makes sense that basic economics of supply and demand would entice more sellers to place their homes on the market--- but it hasn’t happened yet. There were 227 new listings for SFR’s and 61 for Condo’s in March. This compares to 303 and 75 in March of 2012. Attractive, well presented, and well-located new listings are being snapped up by buyers, who are competing with one another and often bidding up prices by 5-10% or even more. It is not unusual to see 4, 6, 10, or even more offers on desirable properties. Potential sellers who are weighing the options may want to contact their local REALTORS to get an idea of the current value of their homes. It may be a pleasant surprise!  

More next time--------

Until then, best wishes to all,

Fred  

The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 1.29.13. Weather Cool, Market Hot!

 Of the 13 Marin County towns and cities we usually follow, 7 are now characterized as being "Very Strong Sellers' Markets"---- meaning that 56% or more of listings in those towns are in contract. Housing inventory in the County is incredibly low. At the end of December, Months' Supply of Inventory (MSI) was only 1.9 months for both Single Family Residences (SFR) and Condominiums. Reluctant Sellers continue to hold their properties off the market while waiting for higher home prices to arrive. That time may be here sooner than many people thought.
According to a January 16 article from Data Quick, a La Jolla,CA-based real estate news service, the median price of a Marin County home in December was up 27.6% from December 2011 (with about half the increase coming from appreciation, and the other half coming from a change in market mix, meaning more expensive homes are being sold) . This was just a few points off the Bay Area average appreciation of 32%--a year-over-year increase the Data Quick Article notes is "The highest in Data Quick's statistics, which go back to 1988". The article goes on to state that "the median reached a high of $665,000 in June/July 2007 and then fell to a low of $290,000 in March, 2009". The alticle also notes: "At the median's current rate of increase, sometime this spring it will have recovered about half of its (the median's) loss since its summer 2007 peak."  


Buyers continue to pounce on attractive new inventory, and multiple offers are once again common. Recently, an attractive, small single family home in a West Marin town received a rumored 33 offers, going into contract at a price that was reportedly almost double the asking price. Extreme? Yes! Representative of the average deal? No. But Marin County real estate is getting competitive again, after several years of bargain basement homes for buyers.

In real estate, as in life, timing is, if not everything, at least an important factor. People who make money in markets are usually those who receive, recognize, and act on information before everyone else climbs on board. We have said for many months now that it was time for buyers to jump into the market to take advantage of low prices and interest rates. Prices have risen, but they are still a bargain compared to 2006/2007. Interest rates are still incredibly low. And there is other good news for buyers---- Even with the price increases, there are still pockets of opportunity in the market. On January 29, only about 37% of homes in the $1million to $1.9 million range were in contract. In the $2million and up range, the figure was only 26-27%. Don't wait too long, because this will change too! Buyers in the hot, under-$1million range can still be successful-----with a good REALTOR and an attitude of optimism and persistence.It is not uncommon for buyers to make 4 or more offers before getting the home they want,but it can be done----hang in there and prepare to be aggressive with offers when the situation calls for it!

Sellers are now in a pocket of opportunity similar to that occupied by buyers a year or two ago. What a great time to  take advantage of the current shortage of housing inventory! An experienced local REALTOR can be an invaluable resource in assessing your home's current value and formulating and implementing a market strategy designed to maximize its value. Don't put off calling your local REALTOR to discuss getting your home on the market in time for the spring sales season. Beat the crowds. Opportunities don't last forever!

More next time---
Until then, best wishes to all,

Fred


visit me at http://www.fredanlyan.com