Hello Everyone,
Another rough week on Wall Street, with the Dow closing below 10,000 at one point for the first time in several months and fluctuating several hundred points during daytime trading. Investors wary of more trouble with the Euro. More talk about a possible double-dip housing recession. MSNBC, in a May 25 article, quotes Robert Shiller, co-creator of the Case-Shiller index who predicted in 2005 that the housing bubble would burst: "It looks like a double-dip already----- There is a very real possibility of some more decline". Read the full article at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37333160/ns/business-economy_at_a_crossroads/
Also, read the Robert Shiller interview at
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_15/b4173013214814.htm
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick, a real estate information service, in an article dated May 20 notes that Bay Area real estate sales (units sold) were about 1.9% lower in April than in the corresponding period last year but questions whether some of the decline might be attributable to sales that were pushed into May or June by tax credits. Article goes on to say "For months we've seen growing signs of a recovery taking hold. But plenty of challenges remain like high unemployment, the possibility of many more distressed properties hitting the market in a rising interest rate environment, and a dysfunctional jumbo loan market, which is a big deal in the Bay Area." The article also notes an almost 22 percent median Bay Area home price increase from April of 2009 which the authors attribute to more high-end activity, better (but still not good) availability of "jumbo" financing, and a decline in foreclosure activity. Read the full article at
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay100520.aspx
Here in Marin County, real estate agents I have spoken with are still upbeat about the local housing market. Interest rates remain favorable. Jumbo availability has eased up a bit. Inventory is increasing slightly, following seasonal trends and showing seller willingness to participate in the current market. Buyers are out and about and making offers on desirable, well-priced homes. Local real estate offices experiencing an increase in business which may be tax stimulus induced, but we will have to wait and see. More desirable properties attracting multiple offers but pricing not racing out of control. Even multiple offers often not that far over asking price, if at all. Buyers very prudent and lenders backstopping them with stringent appraisals. Lender requests for appraisal reviews or even second appraisals not uncommon.
Overall, Marin County market conditions seem much improved from a year ago. Single Family YTD units sold at 639 as of 5.25.10, compared to 440 on the same date last year--- represents a 45% increase. Average YTD SFR list price at $1,112,706 and average sold at $1,057,652 compared to $1,010,384 and $948,226 for the same period last year. SFR days on market on a YTD basis improved from 110 in May of '09 to 96 as of 5.25.10.
Condo's up too but much less dramatic at 187 units sold by May 25 compared to last year's 165, a 13% increase. Average YTD condo prices as of 5.25.10 at $415,311 list price vs. $406,558 sold price. Compares to $372,936 list price and $359,709 sold price during the same period last year. Days on market for Condo's up slightly from 115 to 122.
Marin County housing market still extremely price-sensitive, with attractively priced and presented homes in desirable locations getting lots of action. Overpriced,poorly-presented homes often sitting for extended periods with multiple price reductions. Local professional REALTORS who know your neighborhood an invaluable source of information in the current environment.
More next time-------
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see
htto://www.fredanlyan.com
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Friday, May 14, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 5.14.10
Hello Everyone,
Global stock and currency markets continue to be skittish over fears about Greek debt and the future of the Euro. Oil prices down, stock market down, dollar up. Situation could and does change minute by minute but in the long run, the trend has been positive and seems likely to continue in a positive direction.
Marin County Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory increased slightly to 1252 as of May 11, about 50 more units than at last report and in the same general ballpark as the last two years at this time. Percentage of SFR's in contract up just about a percentage point each at 30.19% overall, 39.5% for homes under $1million, and 20.06% for homes between $1million and $2million. Homes between $2million and $3million dropped about 3/4 of a point to 18.75%, while homes above $3million dropped about 1.8 points to 15.32% in contract. YTD SFR sales at 555 units vs 380 at the same time last year, or up 46%. This compares to an increase of 55% at last report indicating momentum has slowed. Whether this is temporary or a trend resulting from the end of the government homebuyer tax credits remains to be seen. Average SFR list price $1,101,894 compared to $1,009,791 at the same time last year. Average sold price $1,045,650 compared to $953,292. This is not necessarily an indication that housing prices have increased because figures represent "market mix" as well as price levels. Average days on market 100 vs. 112 in May of '09, a slight improvement.
Condominium inventory actually down slightly at 357 units vs.367 at last report. Compares to 328 in April of '09 and 412 in '08 (CB MarketQuest). YTD units sold as of 5.11.10 at 168 vs. 145 at the same time last year, an increase of 15.86%. This is up from the 10% increase indicated at our last report and may or may not signal a trend. More information on this in coming weeks. Average condo list price at $424,938 vs. $356,147 at the same time last year, while average sold price at $415,675 compared to '09's $343,811 (same "market mix" comments apply as for SFR's above). Average DOM at 124 compared to 112 in May of '09.
Marin real estate market continues to offer opportunity for buyers, with excellent prices and mortgages still available at attractive rates. Rules for qualifying stricter than in the past but those with good credit and income taking advantage of this rare opportunity to buy a Marin County home at a more affordable price than in the recent past. Local professional REALTORS familiar with buyers' area(s) of interest still the best source of information on price, location, condition, financing, etc. They see a lot of homes every week. Agents I have spoken with still feeling positive about market activity and direction in the County and see significant improvement over last year. Local market seems poised for continued gradual improvement in the coming months. Lots of excellent deals still available on upper-end properties, especially for cash buyers.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Global stock and currency markets continue to be skittish over fears about Greek debt and the future of the Euro. Oil prices down, stock market down, dollar up. Situation could and does change minute by minute but in the long run, the trend has been positive and seems likely to continue in a positive direction.
Marin County Single Family Residences (SFR) inventory increased slightly to 1252 as of May 11, about 50 more units than at last report and in the same general ballpark as the last two years at this time. Percentage of SFR's in contract up just about a percentage point each at 30.19% overall, 39.5% for homes under $1million, and 20.06% for homes between $1million and $2million. Homes between $2million and $3million dropped about 3/4 of a point to 18.75%, while homes above $3million dropped about 1.8 points to 15.32% in contract. YTD SFR sales at 555 units vs 380 at the same time last year, or up 46%. This compares to an increase of 55% at last report indicating momentum has slowed. Whether this is temporary or a trend resulting from the end of the government homebuyer tax credits remains to be seen. Average SFR list price $1,101,894 compared to $1,009,791 at the same time last year. Average sold price $1,045,650 compared to $953,292. This is not necessarily an indication that housing prices have increased because figures represent "market mix" as well as price levels. Average days on market 100 vs. 112 in May of '09, a slight improvement.
Condominium inventory actually down slightly at 357 units vs.367 at last report. Compares to 328 in April of '09 and 412 in '08 (CB MarketQuest). YTD units sold as of 5.11.10 at 168 vs. 145 at the same time last year, an increase of 15.86%. This is up from the 10% increase indicated at our last report and may or may not signal a trend. More information on this in coming weeks. Average condo list price at $424,938 vs. $356,147 at the same time last year, while average sold price at $415,675 compared to '09's $343,811 (same "market mix" comments apply as for SFR's above). Average DOM at 124 compared to 112 in May of '09.
Marin real estate market continues to offer opportunity for buyers, with excellent prices and mortgages still available at attractive rates. Rules for qualifying stricter than in the past but those with good credit and income taking advantage of this rare opportunity to buy a Marin County home at a more affordable price than in the recent past. Local professional REALTORS familiar with buyers' area(s) of interest still the best source of information on price, location, condition, financing, etc. They see a lot of homes every week. Agents I have spoken with still feeling positive about market activity and direction in the County and see significant improvement over last year. Local market seems poised for continued gradual improvement in the coming months. Lots of excellent deals still available on upper-end properties, especially for cash buyers.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
p.s. for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate 5.2.10
Hello Everyone,
Mood on the street and around town is upbeat. Most REALTORS I have spoken with believe that the Marin County real estate market is picking up. Sellers are better educated about current values and know that they have to price for the market if they want to sell. Plenty of qualified buyers competing for a limited amount of inventory make it their business to know the market and refuse to overpay. Lenders backing them up with strict appraisal guidelines, appraisal reviews, and requests for multiple appraisals so prices have to be real. Interest rates still excellent. Stock Market and consumer confidence recovering and the FED holding the line on interest rates last week with a statement that they intend to continue to do so for an extended period. "Jumbo" loans still difficult to obtain with lots of hoops for buyers to jump, vault, or squeeze themselves through. Well-qualified buyers with good income, credit, assets, reserves can qualify but the process is time-consuming. Upper end of the market continues to be sluggish as a result. Cash is king, with all-cash offers holding a decided edge over buyers who need to obtain loans, particularly on higher-priced homes.
City by City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 listed Marin cities and towns with percentage in contract up, and 6 down. No dramatic moves. Novato in first place, gaining since last month and now at 45.8% in contract. Novato real estate still very sensitive to price in spite of this due to continued REO and short-sale activity. Sausalito still at the bottom of the heap with only 17.89% in contract, but significantly better than last month's 10.2%.
Momentum in YTD units sold seems to be slowing, with SFR's still up about 55% from this period last year at 479 vs. 308. Condo YTD units sold at 143 vs. 130 last year at the same time, or up 10%. With the expiration of the Federal tax credit, remains to be seen whether the market is still strong enough (assisted by the California state tax credit) to continue on its upward course.
Signs of strength in the market include the high ratio of accepted offers to new listings in both the SFR and Condo market------ 88.5% and 95.1% respectively.
CB MarketQuest Market Action Report for April (attached) just out shows SFR's in a strong position with prices up, Days on Market down. Condo's a bit more challenging. See reports for full information.
Opportunities abound, particularly in the upper end of the market where qualified buyers continue to get great deals. Good prices and good rates will probably continue for a while, but not forever. Now is a great time to buy. Check with a professional REALTOR experienced in the specific area of interest.
More next time. Until then,
Best wishes to all,
Fred
P.S. For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Mood on the street and around town is upbeat. Most REALTORS I have spoken with believe that the Marin County real estate market is picking up. Sellers are better educated about current values and know that they have to price for the market if they want to sell. Plenty of qualified buyers competing for a limited amount of inventory make it their business to know the market and refuse to overpay. Lenders backing them up with strict appraisal guidelines, appraisal reviews, and requests for multiple appraisals so prices have to be real. Interest rates still excellent. Stock Market and consumer confidence recovering and the FED holding the line on interest rates last week with a statement that they intend to continue to do so for an extended period. "Jumbo" loans still difficult to obtain with lots of hoops for buyers to jump, vault, or squeeze themselves through. Well-qualified buyers with good income, credit, assets, reserves can qualify but the process is time-consuming. Upper end of the market continues to be sluggish as a result. Cash is king, with all-cash offers holding a decided edge over buyers who need to obtain loans, particularly on higher-priced homes.
City by City Report out this week shows 7 of 13 listed Marin cities and towns with percentage in contract up, and 6 down. No dramatic moves. Novato in first place, gaining since last month and now at 45.8% in contract. Novato real estate still very sensitive to price in spite of this due to continued REO and short-sale activity. Sausalito still at the bottom of the heap with only 17.89% in contract, but significantly better than last month's 10.2%.
Momentum in YTD units sold seems to be slowing, with SFR's still up about 55% from this period last year at 479 vs. 308. Condo YTD units sold at 143 vs. 130 last year at the same time, or up 10%. With the expiration of the Federal tax credit, remains to be seen whether the market is still strong enough (assisted by the California state tax credit) to continue on its upward course.
Signs of strength in the market include the high ratio of accepted offers to new listings in both the SFR and Condo market------ 88.5% and 95.1% respectively.
CB MarketQuest Market Action Report for April (attached) just out shows SFR's in a strong position with prices up, Days on Market down. Condo's a bit more challenging. See reports for full information.
Opportunities abound, particularly in the upper end of the market where qualified buyers continue to get great deals. Good prices and good rates will probably continue for a while, but not forever. Now is a great time to buy. Check with a professional REALTOR experienced in the specific area of interest.
More next time. Until then,
Best wishes to all,
Fred
P.S. For access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
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