(for spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com )
Hello Everyone,
6.19.2009. Stocks closed down slightly today. The Dow Jones gave up ground this week on 4 of 5 trading days and ended 259.53 points lower than it opened on Monday making it the first losing week since May. Much of this the result of investors consolidating their positions ahead of a "quadruple witching" day, slang for the simultaneous expiration of four different kinds of options and futures contracts in the stock market. Market also wary of several different events next week----- "You have the Federal Reserve meeting, Treasury auctions, top-tier economic reports including home sales and personal spending and income that will help validate or nullify the idea that the economy is recovering" said marketwatch.com, quoting Kent Engelke at Capital Securities Management.
Time will tell.
Remains to be seen if recent increases in mortgage rates represent a blip or a trend. If the latter, look for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines to try to jump into the market before higher interest erodes their buying power too much. Buyers who have been pre-approved some time ago and have not locked their rates are wise to re-check to see what their loan limits may be with the new rates.
Inventory of Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County up slightly at 1256 vs 1230 on June 2. Percentage in contract overall at 26.6%, roughly unchanged. Homes under $1million at 39.35% in contract, up from 38.81%. The $1million to $1.99 million segment also up slightly to 16.62% in contract from 15.66%. Homes over $2million down again and considered strong buyers' markets. Of course these are generalizations and individual properties can and do defy the trends. Some interesting facts (source NRT MarketQuest): In May there were 250 accepted offers on SFR's in the County, the most in over 24 months. The ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 79.1%, the highest since January of 07. And the supply of SFR's on the market was down to 7.7 months, the lowest since September of '08.
Condo's continue their red-hot pace with inventory shrinking again slightly from 319 to 315 over the two week period since our last report. Condo's overall at 39.04% in contract, and condo's under $1million (all but 14 of them) doing even better at 40.53%. For May, the ratio of accepted offers to inventory at 32.8%, the highest in over 24 months, and the ratio of accepted offers to new listings was 104.8% (source NRT MarketQuest). Still not a good time for condo sellers to test market pricing boundaries with lots of competition from bank-owned REO properties, even with many reports of properties receiving multiple offers. There are still significant numbers of price reductions (28), expired (8) and withdrawn (18) listings between 6.3.09 and 6.16.09
(Marin MLS).
Big question on everyone's mind is "has the Marin real estate market hit bottom". Many investors seem to think it is at or near that point but impossible to know for sure. Traditionally when the market turns the corner, it goes up faster than it went down, gaining velocity from all those trying not to get left out.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Sunday, June 7, 2009
The Anlyan Report. Marin County Real Estate Statistics 6.5.2009
for access to spreadsheets please see http://www.fredanlyan.com
Hello Everyone,
GM declared bankruptcy this week. After months of foreshadowing almost an anticlimax except to those directly affected--- dealers, employees, suppliers, automobile owners and buyers and a list of others. It used to be said that what is good for GM is good for the country. And what is not good for GM----------. Theoretically, after shedding substantial debt and unprofitable divisions the company will emerge leaner and more competitive. Remains to be seen. We wish them luck for the sake of all concerned. At the start of business on Monday, June 8, GM as well as Citigroup will be dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They will be replaced by Cisco Systems and Travelers insurance. Just goes to show that no company is too big to be subject to the basic rules of business and markets.
Dow Jones closed out the week today (6/5/2009) at 8763, up about 12 points and holding up pretty well but people watching all this are still wary, skittish, waiting for another shoe to drop, wondering if the Marin County housing market has hit bottom or still has further to go. Crystal ball says "answer hazy, ask again later", but previous cycles have shown that although it is difficult to exactly time the bottom of the market it is still beneficial to buy near the market lows, and easier to do on the way down than on the way back up.
City-by-City Report for June 1 shows Novato and San Rafael still with very strong sales at 46% and 35% of listings in contract, respectively, followed closely by Corte Madera at 36% and San Anselmo at 33%. On the other end of the scale, Tiburon in the basement with only 5 of 111 listings in contract, or 4.5%. Kentfield next at 11%, and Sausalito at 14%. Mill Valley at only 19.7% or 39 out of 198 listings in contract, but this a steady and consistent improvement from 14% on May 5 and 10% on March 31.
Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County inventory actually down about 17 units from last report to 1230, of which 327 or 26% were in contract on June 2. Homes under $1million at 38% in contract (248 of 639), down just a bit from last report's figure of 40.25%. Upper end of the market still stuck due to challenges in obtaining "jumbo" mortgages. The money is out there but it takes time and determination to get the loans through for qualified borrowers. Well worth doing to take advantage of fabulous (I almost want to say "once in a lifetime") deals on purchase prices. YTD SFR sales at 479 units compared to 599 at this time last year, or down 20%. This shows continued progress from -21.5% at last report.
Condo's in the County at 37.62% in contract overall and 39% for units under $1million (all but 14 units). 179 units sold YTD as of June 2 compares to 149 at the same time last year or up 20%. As we have discussed before, average sales price for YTD units sold $363,326 vs. last year's $564,096 and days on market up from 95 last year to 114 now. Lower sales prices not an accurate representation of loss of market value because they also reflect to a considerable degree REO (bank-owned properties) "fire-sale" pricing and lower-end units on the market. Markets vary greatly by town, neighborhood, street, and specific complex and can be challenging to understand. Best bet is a local, experienced real estate agent who is familiar with current inventory and pricing and recent sales.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
Hello Everyone,
GM declared bankruptcy this week. After months of foreshadowing almost an anticlimax except to those directly affected--- dealers, employees, suppliers, automobile owners and buyers and a list of others. It used to be said that what is good for GM is good for the country. And what is not good for GM----------. Theoretically, after shedding substantial debt and unprofitable divisions the company will emerge leaner and more competitive. Remains to be seen. We wish them luck for the sake of all concerned. At the start of business on Monday, June 8, GM as well as Citigroup will be dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They will be replaced by Cisco Systems and Travelers insurance. Just goes to show that no company is too big to be subject to the basic rules of business and markets.
Dow Jones closed out the week today (6/5/2009) at 8763, up about 12 points and holding up pretty well but people watching all this are still wary, skittish, waiting for another shoe to drop, wondering if the Marin County housing market has hit bottom or still has further to go. Crystal ball says "answer hazy, ask again later", but previous cycles have shown that although it is difficult to exactly time the bottom of the market it is still beneficial to buy near the market lows, and easier to do on the way down than on the way back up.
City-by-City Report for June 1 shows Novato and San Rafael still with very strong sales at 46% and 35% of listings in contract, respectively, followed closely by Corte Madera at 36% and San Anselmo at 33%. On the other end of the scale, Tiburon in the basement with only 5 of 111 listings in contract, or 4.5%. Kentfield next at 11%, and Sausalito at 14%. Mill Valley at only 19.7% or 39 out of 198 listings in contract, but this a steady and consistent improvement from 14% on May 5 and 10% on March 31.
Single Family Residences (SFR) in the County inventory actually down about 17 units from last report to 1230, of which 327 or 26% were in contract on June 2. Homes under $1million at 38% in contract (248 of 639), down just a bit from last report's figure of 40.25%. Upper end of the market still stuck due to challenges in obtaining "jumbo" mortgages. The money is out there but it takes time and determination to get the loans through for qualified borrowers. Well worth doing to take advantage of fabulous (I almost want to say "once in a lifetime") deals on purchase prices. YTD SFR sales at 479 units compared to 599 at this time last year, or down 20%. This shows continued progress from -21.5% at last report.
Condo's in the County at 37.62% in contract overall and 39% for units under $1million (all but 14 units). 179 units sold YTD as of June 2 compares to 149 at the same time last year or up 20%. As we have discussed before, average sales price for YTD units sold $363,326 vs. last year's $564,096 and days on market up from 95 last year to 114 now. Lower sales prices not an accurate representation of loss of market value because they also reflect to a considerable degree REO (bank-owned properties) "fire-sale" pricing and lower-end units on the market. Markets vary greatly by town, neighborhood, street, and specific complex and can be challenging to understand. Best bet is a local, experienced real estate agent who is familiar with current inventory and pricing and recent sales.
More next time.
Until then, best wishes to all,
Fred
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